Ce Zhang

Nino Antulov-Fantulin, Dijana Tolic, Matija Piskorec et al.

In this paper, we study the possibility of inferring early warning indicators (EWIs) for periods of extreme bitcoin price volatility using features obtained from Bitcoin daily transaction graphs. We infer the low-dimensional representations of transaction graphs in the time period from 2012 to 2017 using Bitcoin blockchain, and demonstrate how these representations can be used to predict extreme price volatility events. Our EWI, which is obtained with a non-negative decomposition, contains more predictive information than those obtained with singular value decomposition or scalar value of the total Bitcoin transaction volume.

Heng Guo, Kaan Kara, Ce Zhang

For Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, one of the greatest discrepancies between theory and system is the scan order - while most theoretical development on the mixing time analysis deals with random updates, real-world systems are implemented with systematic scans. We bridge this gap for models that exhibit a bipartite structure, including, most notably, the Restricted/Deep Boltzmann Machine. The de facto implementation for these models scans variables in a layerwise fashion. We show that the Gibbs sampler with a layerwise alternating scan order has its relaxation time (in terms of epochs) no larger than that of a random-update Gibbs sampler (in terms of variable updates). We also construct examples to show that this bound is asymptotically tight. Through standard inequalities, our result also implies a comparison on the mixing times.