Sahaj Raj Malla

Sahaj Raj Malla

Forecasting agricultural commodity prices in emerging economies is difficult due to high volatility, frequent supply disruptions, and strong cultural influences on demand. This study introduces the Kalimati Vegetable Price Index (KVPI), a new inverse-volatility weighted composite index that aggregates 135 daily wholesale commodities from Kathmandu over ten years (2013-2023). By creating a stable macro-level signal, the KVPI reduces the noise inherent in modelling individual crops. A rich set of 64 causally valid features was developed, including festival lead-lag effects, rolling statistics, and calendar variables. Fourteen forecasting models spanning statistical, tree-based, deep learning, hybrid, and transformer architectures were rigorously evaluated across short (7-day), medium (14- and 30-day), and long-term (90-day) horizons. Tree-based ensembles proved notably robust, while classical statistical models and complex transformers struggled with the noisy dataset. The proposed Momentum-Corrected Online Stacking Ensemble achieved the strongest performance, yielding a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 1.771, an exceptionally low Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.68%, and explaining 84.5% of the variance (R-squared = 0.845) at the 90-day horizon. This open-source pipeline provides policymakers and supply chain actors in Nepal and similar markets with a practical, reliable tool for anticipating price movements and strengthening food security.

Sahaj Raj Malla

This study evaluates Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents for Dhumbal, a culturally significant multiplayer card game with imperfect information, through a systematic comparison of rule-based, search-based, and learning-based strategies. We formalize Dhumbal's mechanics and implement diverse agents, including heuristic approaches (Aggressive, Conservative, Balanced, Opportunistic), search-based methods such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) and Information Set Monte Carlo Tree Search (ISMCTS), and reinforcement learning approaches including Deep Q-Network (DQN) and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), and a random baseline. Evaluation involves within-category tournaments followed by a cross-category championship. Performance is measured via win rate, economic outcome, Jhyap success, cards discarded per round, risk assessment, and decision efficiency. Statistical significance is assessed using Welch's t-test with Bonferroni correction, effect sizes via Cohen's d, and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Across 1024 simulated rounds, the rule-based Aggressive agent achieves the highest win rate (88.3%, 95% CI: [86.3, 90.3]), outperforming ISMCTS (9.0%) and PPO (1.5%) through effective exploitation of Jhyap declarations. The study contributes a reproducible AI framework, insights into heuristic efficacy under partial information, and open-source code, thereby advancing AI research and supporting digital preservation of cultural games.

Prajwal Panth, Sahaj Raj Malla

We propose the Consensus-Based Privacy-Preserving Data Distribution (CPPDD) framework, a lightweight and post-setup autonomous protocol for secure multi-client data aggregation. The framework enforces unanimous-release confidentiality through a dual-layer protection mechanism that combines per-client affine masking with priority-driven sequential consensus locking. Decentralized integrity is verified via step (sigma_S) and data (sigma_D) checksums, facilitating autonomous malicious deviation detection and atomic abort without requiring persistent coordination. The design supports scalar, vector, and matrix payloads with O(N*D) computation and communication complexity, optional edge-server offloading, and resistance to collusion under N-1 corruptions. Formal analysis proves correctness, Consensus-Dependent Integrity and Fairness (CDIF) with overwhelming-probability abort on deviation, and IND-CPA security assuming a pseudorandom function family. Empirical evaluations on MNIST-derived vectors demonstrate linear scalability up to N = 500 with sub-millisecond per-client computation times. The framework achieves 100% malicious deviation detection, exact data recovery, and three-to-four orders of magnitude lower FLOPs compared to MPC and HE baselines. CPPDD enables atomic collaboration in secure voting, consortium federated learning, blockchain escrows, and geo-information capacity building, addressing critical gaps in scalability, trust minimization, and verifiable multi-party computation for regulated and resource-constrained environments.

Sahaj Raj Malla, Shreeyash Kayastha, Rumi Suwal et al.

This study develops a robust machine learning framework for one-step-ahead forecasting of daily log-returns in the Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) Index using the XGBoost regressor. A comprehensive feature set is engineered, including lagged log-returns (up to 30 days) and established technical indicators such as short- and medium-term rolling volatility measures and the 14-period Relative Strength Index. Hyperparameter optimization is performed using Optuna with time-series cross-validation on the initial training segment. Out-of-sample performance is rigorously assessed via walk-forward validation under both expanding and fixed-length rolling window schemes across multiple lag configurations, simulating real-world deployment and avoiding lookahead bias. Predictive accuracy is evaluated using root mean squared error, mean absolute error, coefficient of determination (R-squared), and directional accuracy on both log-returns and reconstructed closing prices. Empirical results show that the optimal configuration, an expanding window with 20 lags, outperforms tuned ARIMA and Ridge regression benchmarks, achieving the lowest log-return RMSE (0.013450) and MAE (0.009814) alongside a directional accuracy of 65.15%. While the R-squared remains modest, consistent with the noisy nature of financial returns, primary emphasis is placed on relative error reduction and directional prediction. Feature importance analysis and visual inspection further enhance interpretability. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of gradient boosting ensembles in modeling nonlinear dynamics in volatile emerging market time series and establish a reproducible benchmark for NEPSE Index forecasting.

Sahaj Raj Malla

Handwritten digit recognition in regional scripts, such as Devanagari, is crucial for multilingual document digitization, educational tools, and the preservation of cultural heritage. The script's complex structure and limited annotated datasets pose significant challenges to conventional models. This paper introduces the first hybrid quantum-classical architecture for Devanagari handwritten digit recognition, combining a convolutional neural network (CNN) for spatial feature extraction with a 10-qubit variational quantum circuit (VQC) for quantum-enhanced classification. Trained and evaluated on the Devanagari Handwritten Character Dataset (DHCD), the proposed model achieves a state-of-the-art test accuracy for quantum implementation of 99.80% and a test loss of 0.2893, with an average per-class F1-score of 0.9980. Compared to equivalent classical CNNs, our model demonstrates superior accuracy with significantly fewer parameters and enhanced robustness. By leveraging quantum principles such as superposition and entanglement, this work establishes a novel benchmark for regional script recognition, highlighting the promise of quantum machine learning (QML) in real-world, low-resource language settings.