Ange-Clément Akazan

Ange-Clement Akazan, Verlon Roel Mbingui, Gnankan Landry Regis N'guessan et al.

Weather forecasting is crucial for managing risks and economic planning, particularly in tropical Africa, where extreme events severely impact livelihoods. Yet, existing forecasting methods often struggle with the region's complex, non-linear weather patterns. This study benchmarks deep recurrent neural networks such as $\texttt{LSTM, GRU, BiLSTM, BiGRU}$, and Kolmogorov-Arnold-based models $(\texttt{KAN} and \texttt{TKAN})$ for daily forecasting of temperature, precipitation, and pressure in two tropical cities: Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) and Kigali (Rwanda). We further introduce two customized variants of $ \texttt{TKAN}$ that replace its original $\texttt{SiLU}$ activation function with $ \texttt{GeLU}$ and \texttt{MiSH}, respectively. Using station-level meteorological data spanning from 2010 to 2024, we evaluate all the models on standard regression metrics. $\texttt{KAN}$ achieves temperature prediction ($R^2=0.9986$ in Abidjan, $0.9998$ in Kigali, $\texttt{MSE} < 0.0014~^\circ C ^2$), while $\texttt{TKAN}$ variants minimize absolute errors for precipitation forecasting in low-rainfall regimes. The customized $\texttt{TKAN}$ models demonstrate improvements over the standard $\texttt{TKAN}$ across both datasets. Classical \texttt{RNNs} remain highly competitive for atmospheric pressure ($R^2 \approx 0.83{-}0.86$), outperforming $\texttt{KAN}$-based models in this task. These results highlight the potential of spline-based neural architectures for efficient and data-efficient forecasting.

Ange-Clément Akazan, Alexia Jolicoeur-Martineau, Ioannis Mitliagkas

Privacy and regulatory constraints make data generation vital to advancing machine learning without relying on real-world datasets. A leading approach for tabular data generation is the Forest Flow (FF) method, which combines Flow Matching with XGBoost. Despite its good performance, FF is slow and makes errors when treating categorical variables as one-hot continuous features. It is also highly sensitive to small changes in the initial conditions of the ordinary differential equation (ODE). To overcome these limitations, we develop Heterogeneous Sequential Feature Forest Flow (HS3F). Our method generates data sequentially (feature-by-feature), reducing the dependency on noisy initial conditions through the additional information from previously generated features. Furthermore, it generates categorical variables using multinomial sampling (from an XGBoost classifier) instead of flow matching, improving generation speed. We also use a Runge-Kutta 4th order (Rg4) ODE solver for improved performance over the Euler solver used in FF. Our experiments with 25 datasets reveal that HS3F produces higher quality and more diverse synthetic data than FF, especially for categorical variables. It also generates data 21-27 times faster for datasets with $\geq20%$ categorical variables. HS3F further demonstrates enhanced robustness to affine transformation in flow ODE initial conditions compared to FF. This study not only validates the HS3F but also unveils promising new strategies to advance generative models.