Akhlitdin Nizamitdinov

Ilyas Varshavskiy, Bonu Boboeva, Shuhrat Khalilbekov et al.

Machine Learning models in finance are highly susceptible to model drift, where predictive performance declines as data distributions shift. This issue is especially acute in developing economies such as those in Central Asia and the Caucasus - including Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan - where frequent and unpredictable macroeconomics shocks destabilize financial data. To the best of our knowledge, this is among the first studies to examine drift mitigation methods on financial datasets from these regions. We investigate the use of synthetic outliers, a largely unexplored approach, to improve model stability against unforeseen shocks. To evaluate effectiveness, we introduce a two-level framework that measures both the extent of performance degradation and the severity of shocks. Our experiments on macroeconomic tabular datasets show that adding a small proportion of synthetic outliers generally improves stability compared to baseline models, though the optimal amount varies by dataset and model

Azizjon Azimi, Bonu Boboeva, Ilyas Varshavskiy et al.

The phenomenon of "black swans" has posed a fundamental challenge to performance of classical machine learning models. The perceived rise in frequency of outlier conditions, especially in post-pandemic environment, has necessitated exploration of synthetic data as a complement to real data in model training. This article provides a general overview and experimental investigation of the zGAN model architecture developed for the purpose of generating synthetic tabular data with outlier characteristics. The model is put to test in binary classification environments and shows promising results on realistic synthetic data generation, as well as uplift capabilities vis-à-vis model performance. A distinctive feature of zGAN is its enhanced correlation capability between features in the generated data, replicating correlations of features in real training data. Furthermore, crucial is the ability of zGAN to generate outliers based on covariance of real data or synthetically generated covariances. This approach to outlier generation enables modeling of complex economic events and augmentation of outliers for tasks such as training predictive models and detecting, processing or removing outliers. Experiments and comparative analyses as part of this study were conducted on both private (credit risk in financial services) and public datasets.