Philippe Cudre-Mauroux

Bangchao Deng, Xin Jing, Tianyue Yang et al.

Human trajectory data, which plays a crucial role in various applications such as crowd management and epidemic prevention, is challenging to obtain due to practical constraints and privacy concerns. In this context, synthetic human trajectory data is generated to simulate as close as possible to real-world human trajectories, often under summary statistics and distributional similarities. However, these similarities oversimplify complex human mobility patterns (a.k.a. ``Datasaurus''), resulting in intrinsic biases in both generative model design and benchmarks of the generated trajectories. Against this background, we propose MIRAGE, a huMan-Imitative tRAjectory GenErative model designed as a neural Temporal Point Process integrating an Exploration and Preferential Return model. It imitates the human decision-making process in trajectory generation, rather than fitting any specific statistical distributions as traditional methods do, thus avoiding the Datasaurus issue. We also propose a comprehensive task-based evaluation protocol beyond Datasaurus to systematically benchmark trajectory generative models on four typical downstream tasks, integrating multiple techniques and evaluation metrics for each task, to assess the ultimate utility of the generated trajectories. We conduct a thorough evaluation of MIRAGE on three real-world user trajectory datasets against a sizeable collection of baselines. Results show that compared to the best baselines, MIRAGE-generated trajectory data not only achieves the best statistical and distributional similarities with 59.0-67.7% improvement, but also yields the best performance in the task-based evaluation with 10.9-33.4% improvement. A series of ablation studies also validate the key design choices of MIRAGE.

Bangchao Deng, Bingqing Qu, Pengyang Wang et al.

Location prediction forecasts a user's location based on historical user mobility traces. To tackle the intrinsic sparsity issue of real-world user mobility traces, spatiotemporal contexts have been shown as significantly useful. Existing solutions mostly incorporate spatiotemporal distances between locations in mobility traces, either by feeding them as additional inputs to Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) or by using them to search for informative past hidden states for prediction. However, such distance-based methods fail to capture the time-varying temporal regularities of human mobility, where human mobility is often more regular in the morning than in other periods, for example; this suggests the usefulness of the actual timestamps besides the temporal distances. Against this background, we propose REPLAY, a general RNN architecture learning to capture the time-varying temporal regularities for location prediction. Specifically, REPLAY not only resorts to the spatiotemporal distances in sparse trajectories to search for the informative past hidden states, but also accommodates the time-varying temporal regularities by incorporating smoothed timestamp embeddings using Gaussian weighted averaging with timestamp-specific learnable bandwidths, which can flexibly adapt to the temporal regularities of different strengths across different timestamps. Our extensive evaluation compares REPLAY against a sizable collection of state-of-the-art techniques on two real-world datasets. Results show that REPLAY consistently and significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods by 7.7\%-10.5\% in the location prediction task, and the bandwidths reveal interesting patterns of the time-varying temporal regularities.

Giuseppe Cuccu, Julian Togelius, Philippe Cudre-Mauroux

Deep reinforcement learning, applied to vision-based problems like Atari games, maps pixels directly to actions; internally, the deep neural network bears the responsibility of both extracting useful information and making decisions based on it. By separating the image processing from decision-making, one could better understand the complexity of each task, as well as potentially find smaller policy representations that are easier for humans to understand and may generalize better. To this end, we propose a new method for learning policies and compact state representations separately but simultaneously for policy approximation in reinforcement learning. State representations are generated by an encoder based on two novel algorithms: Increasing Dictionary Vector Quantization makes the encoder capable of growing its dictionary size over time, to address new observations as they appear in an open-ended online-learning context; Direct Residuals Sparse Coding encodes observations by disregarding reconstruction error minimization, and aiming instead for highest information inclusion. The encoder autonomously selects observations online to train on, in order to maximize code sparsity. As the dictionary size increases, the encoder produces increasingly larger inputs for the neural network: this is addressed by a variation of the Exponential Natural Evolution Strategies algorithm which adapts its probability distribution dimensionality along the run. We test our system on a selection of Atari games using tiny neural networks of only 6 to 18 neurons (depending on the game's controls). These are still capable of achieving results comparable---and occasionally superior---to state-of-the-art techniques which use two orders of magnitude more neurons.