Sheshank Shankar

Abhishek Singh, Gauri Gupta, Ritvik Kapila et al.

Federated Learning (FL) enables collaborative optimization of machine learning models across decentralized data by aggregating model parameters. Our approach extends this concept by aggregating "knowledge" derived from models, instead of model parameters. We present a novel framework called CoDream, where clients collaboratively optimize randomly initialized data using federated optimization in the input data space, similar to how randomly initialized model parameters are optimized in FL. Our key insight is that jointly optimizing this data can effectively capture the properties of the global data distribution. Sharing knowledge in data space offers numerous benefits: (1) model-agnostic collaborative learning, i.e., different clients can have different model architectures; (2) communication that is independent of the model size, eliminating scalability concerns with model parameters; (3) compatibility with secure aggregation, thus preserving the privacy benefits of federated learning; (4) allowing of adaptive optimization of knowledge shared for personalized learning. We empirically validate CoDream on standard FL tasks, demonstrating competitive performance despite not sharing model parameters. Our code: https://mitmedialab.github.io/codream.github.io/

Parth Patwa, Viswanatha Reddy, Rohan Sukumaran et al.

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted lives and economies across the globe, leading to many deaths. While vaccination is an important intervention, its roll-out is slow and unequal across the globe. Therefore, extensive testing still remains one of the key methods to monitor and contain the virus. Testing on a large scale is expensive and arduous. Hence, we need alternate methods to estimate the number of cases. Online surveys have been shown to be an effective method for data collection amidst the pandemic. In this work, we develop machine learning models to estimate the prevalence of COVID-19 using self-reported symptoms. Our best model predicts the daily cases with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 226.30 (normalized MAE of 27.09%) per state, which demonstrates the possibility of predicting the actual number of confirmed cases by utilizing self-reported symptoms. The models are developed at two levels of data granularity - local models, which are trained at the state level, and a single global model which is trained on the combined data aggregated across all states. Our results indicate a lower error on the local models as opposed to the global model. In addition, we also show that the most important symptoms (features) vary considerably from state to state. This work demonstrates that the models developed on crowd-sourced data, curated via online platforms, can complement the existing epidemiological surveillance infrastructure in a cost-effective manner. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/parthpatwa/Can-Self-Reported-Symptoms-Predict-Daily-COVID-19-Cases.

Joseph Bae, Rohan Sukumaran, Sheshank Shankar et al.

In this early draft, we describe a user-centric, card-based system for vaccine distribution. Our system makes use of digitally signed QR codes and their use for phased vaccine distribution, vaccine administration/record-keeping, immunization verification, and follow-up symptom reporting. Furthermore, we propose and describe a complementary scanner app system to be used by vaccination clinics, public health officials, and immunization verification parties to effectively utilize card-based framework. We believe that the proposed system provides a privacy-preserving and efficient framework for vaccine distribution in both developed and developing regions.

Rohan Sukumaran, Parth Patwa, T V Sethuraman et al.

It is crucial for policymakers to understand the community prevalence of COVID-19 so combative resources can be effectively allocated and prioritized during the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditionally, community prevalence has been assessed through diagnostic and antibody testing data. However, despite the increasing availability of COVID-19 testing, the required level has not been met in most parts of the globe, introducing a need for an alternative method for communities to determine disease prevalence. This is further complicated by the observation that COVID-19 prevalence and spread varies across different spatial, temporal, and demographics. In this study, we understand trends in the spread of COVID-19 by utilizing the results of self-reported COVID-19 symptoms surveys as an alternative to COVID-19 testing reports. This allows us to assess community disease prevalence, even in areas with low COVID-19 testing ability. Using individually reported symptom data from various populations, our method predicts the likely percentage of the population that tested positive for COVID-19. We do so with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1.14 and Mean Relative Error (MRE) of 60.40\% with 95\% confidence interval as (60.12, 60.67). This implies that our model predicts +/- 1140 cases than the original in a population of 1 million. In addition, we forecast the location-wise percentage of the population testing positive for the next 30 days using self-reported symptoms data from previous days. The MAE for this method is as low as 0.15 (MRE of 23.61\% with 95\% confidence interval as (23.6, 13.7)) for New York. We present an analysis of these results, exposing various clinical attributes of interest across different demographics. Lastly, we qualitatively analyze how various policy enactments (testing, curfew) affect the prevalence of COVID-19 in a community.

Sheshank Shankar, Rishank Kanaparti, Ayush Chopra et al.

As we await a vaccine, social-distancing via efficient contact tracing has emerged as the primary health strategy to dampen the spread of COVID-19. To enable efficient digital contact tracing, we present a novel system to estimate pair-wise individual proximity, via a joint model of Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) signals with other on-device sensors (accelerometer, magnetometer, gyroscope). We explore multiple ways of interpreting the sensor data stream (time-series, histogram, etc) and use several statistical and deep learning methods to learn representations for sensing proximity. We report the normalized Decision Cost Function (nDCF) metric and analyze the differential impact of the various input signals, as well as discuss various challenges associated with this task.