Weizhu Qian

Weizhu Qian, Dalin Zhang, Yan Zhao et al.

Uncertainty is an essential consideration for time series forecasting tasks. In this work, we specifically focus on quantifying the uncertainty of traffic forecasting. To achieve this, we develop Deep Spatio-Temporal Uncertainty Quantification (DeepSTUQ), which can estimate both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. We first leverage a spatio-temporal model to model the complex spatio-temporal correlations of traffic data. Subsequently, two independent sub-neural networks maximizing the heterogeneous log-likelihood are developed to estimate aleatoric uncertainty. For estimating epistemic uncertainty, we combine the merits of variational inference and deep ensembling by integrating the Monte Carlo dropout and the Adaptive Weight Averaging re-training methods, respectively. Finally, we propose a post-processing calibration approach based on Temperature Scaling, which improves the model's generalization ability to estimate uncertainty. Extensive experiments are conducted on four public datasets, and the empirical results suggest that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of both point prediction and uncertainty quantification.

Zhichen Lai, Huan Li, Dalin Zhang et al.

Cyber-physical system sensors emit multivariate time series (MTS) that monitor physical system processes. Such time series generally capture unknown numbers of states, each with a different duration, that correspond to specific conditions, e.g., "walking" or "running" in human-activity monitoring. Unsupervised identification of such states facilitates storage and processing in subsequent data analyses, as well as enhances result interpretability. Existing state-detection proposals face three challenges. First, they introduce substantial computational overhead, rendering them impractical in resourceconstrained or streaming settings. Second, although state-of-the-art (SOTA) proposals employ contrastive learning for representation, insufficient attention to false negatives hampers model convergence and accuracy. Third, SOTA proposals predominantly only emphasize offline non-streaming deployment, we highlight an urgent need to optimize online streaming scenarios. We propose E2Usd that enables efficient-yet-accurate unsupervised MTS state detection. E2Usd exploits a Fast Fourier Transform-based Time Series Compressor (fftCompress) and a Decomposed Dual-view Embedding Module (ddEM) that together encode input MTSs at low computational overhead. Additionally, we propose a False Negative Cancellation Contrastive Learning method (fnccLearning) to counteract the effects of false negatives and to achieve more cluster-friendly embedding spaces. To reduce computational overhead further in streaming settings, we introduce Adaptive Threshold Detection (adaTD). Comprehensive experiments with six baselines and six datasets offer evidence that E2Usd is capable of SOTA accuracy at significantly reduced computational overhead.

Weizhu Qian, Bowei Chen, Xiaowei Huang

We propose a new approach to train a variational information bottleneck (VIB) that improves its robustness to adversarial perturbations. Unlike the traditional methods where the hard labels are usually used for the classification task, we refine the categorical class information in the training phase with soft labels which are obtained from a pre-trained reference neural network and can reflect the likelihood of the original class labels. We also relax the Gaussian posterior assumption in the VIB implementation by using the mutual information neural estimation. Extensive experiments have been performed with the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets, and the results show that our proposed approach significantly outperforms the benchmarked models.

Weizhu Qian, Franck Gechter

Recognizing user location with WiFi fingerprints is a popular approach for accurate indoor positioning problems. In this work, our goal is to interpret WiFi fingerprints into actual user locations. However, WiFi fingerprint data can be very high dimensional in some cases, we need to find a good representation of the input data for the learning task first. Otherwise, using neural networks will suffer from severe overfitting. In this work, we solve this issue by combining the Information Bottleneck method and Variational Inference. Based on these two approaches, we propose a Variational Information Bottleneck model for accurate indoor positioning. The proposed model consists of an encoder structure and a predictor structure. The encoder is to find a good representation in the input data for the learning task. The predictor is to use the latent representation to predict the final output. To enhance the generalization of our model, we also adopt the Dropout technique for each hidden layer of the decoder. We conduct the validation experiments on a real-world dataset. We also compare the proposed model to other existing methods so as to quantify the performances of our method.

Weizhu Qian, Bowei Chen, Yichao Zhang et al.

Multi-task learning (MTL) is an important subject in machine learning and artificial intelligence. Its applications to computer vision, signal processing, and speech recognition are ubiquitous. Although this subject has attracted considerable attention recently, the performance and robustness of the existing models to different tasks have not been well balanced. This article proposes an MTL model based on the architecture of the variational information bottleneck (VIB), which can provide a more effective latent representation of the input features for the downstream tasks. Extensive observations on three public data sets under adversarial attacks show that the proposed model is competitive to the state-of-the-art algorithms concerning the prediction accuracy. Experimental results suggest that combining the VIB and the task-dependent uncertainties is a very effective way to abstract valid information from the input features for accomplishing multiple tasks.

Weizhu Qian, Fabrice Lauri, Franck Gechter

Predicting smartphone users location with WiFi fingerprints has been a popular research topic recently. In this work, we propose two novel deep learning-based models, the convolutional mixture density recurrent neural network and the VAE-based semi-supervised learning model. The convolutional mixture density recurrent neural network is designed for path prediction, in which the advantages of convolutional neural networks, recurrent neural networks and mixture density networks are combined. Further, since most of real-world datasets are not labeled, we devise the VAE-based model for the semi-supervised learning tasks. In order to test the proposed models, we conduct the validation experiments on the real-world datasets. The final results verify the effectiveness of our approaches and show the superiority over other existing methods.

Weizhu Qian, Fabrice Lauri, Franck Gechter

Discovering human mobility patterns with geo-location data collected from smartphone users has been a hot research topic in recent years. In this paper, we attempt to discover daily mobile patterns based on GPS data. We view this problem from a probabilistic perspective in order to explore more information from the original GPS data compared to other conventional methods. A non-parameter Bayesian modeling method, Infinite Gaussian Mixture Model, is used to estimate the probability density for the daily mobility. Then, we use Kullback-Leibler divergence as the metrics to measure the similarity of different probability distributions. And combining Infinite Gaussian Mixture Model and Kullback-Leibler divergence, we derived an automatic clustering algorithm to discover mobility patterns for each individual user without setting the number of clusters in advance. In the experiments, the effectiveness of our method is validated on the real user data collected from different users. The results show that the IGMM-based algorithm outperforms the GMM-based algorithm. We also test our methods on the dataset with different lengths to discover the minimum data length for discovering mobility patterns.

Weizhu Qian, Fabrice Lauri, Franck Gechter

Predicting smartphone users activity using WiFi fingerprints has been a popular approach for indoor positioning in recent years. However, such a high dimensional time-series prediction problem can be very tricky to solve. To address this issue, we propose a novel deep learning model, the convolutional mixture density recurrent neural network (CMDRNN), which combines the strengths of convolutional neural networks, recurrent neural networks and mixture density networks. In our model, the CNN sub-model is employed to detect the feature of the high dimensional input, the RNN sub-model is utilized to capture the time dependency and the MDN sub-model is for predicting the final output. For validation, we conduct the experiments on the real-world dataset and the obtained results illustrate the effectiveness of our method.