Stephan Zheng

Tianyu Zhang, Andrew Williams, Soham Phade et al.

Comprehensive global cooperation is essential to limit global temperature increases while continuing economic development, e.g., reducing severe inequality or achieving long-term economic growth. Achieving long-term cooperation on climate change mitigation with n strategic agents poses a complex game-theoretic problem. For example, agents may negotiate and reach climate agreements, but there is no central authority to enforce adherence to those agreements. Hence, it is critical to design negotiation and agreement frameworks that foster cooperation, allow all agents to meet their individual policy objectives, and incentivize long-term adherence. This is an interdisciplinary challenge that calls for collaboration between researchers in machine learning, economics, climate science, law, policy, ethics, and other fields. In particular, we argue that machine learning is a critical tool to address the complexity of this domain. To facilitate this research, here we introduce RICE-N, a multi-region integrated assessment model that simulates the global climate and economy, and which can be used to design and evaluate the strategic outcomes for different negotiation and agreement frameworks. We also describe how to use multi-agent reinforcement learning to train rational agents using RICE-N. This framework underpinsAI for Global Climate Cooperation, a working group collaboration and competition on climate negotiation and agreement design. Here, we invite the scientific community to design and evaluate their solutions using RICE-N, machine learning, economic intuition, and other domain knowledge. More information can be found on www.ai4climatecoop.org.

Arundhati Banerjee, Soham Phade, Stefano Ermon et al.

We study how a principal can efficiently and effectively intervene on the rewards of a previously unseen learning agent in order to induce desirable outcomes. This is relevant to many real-world settings like auctions or taxation, where the principal may not know the learning behavior nor the rewards of real people. Moreover, the principal should be few-shot adaptable and minimize the number of interventions, because interventions are often costly. We introduce MERMAIDE, a model-based meta-learning framework to train a principal that can quickly adapt to out-of-distribution agents with different learning strategies and reward functions. We validate this approach step-by-step. First, in a Stackelberg setting with a best-response agent, we show that meta-learning enables quick convergence to the theoretically known Stackelberg equilibrium at test time, although noisy observations severely increase the sample complexity. We then show that our model-based meta-learning approach is cost-effective in intervening on bandit agents with unseen explore-exploit strategies. Finally, we outperform baselines that use either meta-learning or agent behavior modeling, in both $0$-shot and $K=1$-shot settings with partial agent information.

Yoshua Bengio, Prateek Gupta, Lu Li et al.

The international community must collaborate to mitigate climate change and sustain economic growth. However, collaboration is hard to achieve, partly because no global authority can ensure compliance with international climate agreements. Combining AI with climate-economic simulations offers a promising solution to design international frameworks, including negotiation protocols and climate agreements, that promote and incentivize collaboration. In addition, these frameworks should also have policy goals fulfillment, and sustained commitment, taking into account climate-economic dynamics and strategic behaviors. These challenges require an interdisciplinary approach across machine learning, economics, climate science, law, policy, ethics, and other fields. Towards this objective, we organized AI for Global Climate Cooperation, a Mila competition in which teams submitted proposals and analyses of international frameworks, based on (modifications of) RICE-N, an AI-driven integrated assessment model (IAM). In particular, RICE-N supports modeling regional decision-making using AI agents. Furthermore, the IAM then models the climate-economic impact of those decisions into the future. Whereas the first track focused only on performance metrics, the proposals submitted to the second track were evaluated both quantitatively and qualitatively. The quantitative evaluation focused on a combination of (i) the degree of mitigation of global temperature rise and (ii) the increase in economic productivity. On the other hand, an interdisciplinary panel of human experts in law, policy, sociology, economics and environmental science, evaluated the solutions qualitatively. In particular, the panel considered the effectiveness, simplicity, feasibility, ethics, and notions of climate justice of the protocols. In the third track, the participants were asked to critique and improve RICE-N.

Zhening Li, Armando Solar-Lezama, Yisong Yue et al.

We introduce a new approach to agent programming, the development of LLM-based agents. Current approaches to agent programming often entangle two aspects of agent design: the core workflow logic and the inference-time strategy (e.g., tree search). We introduce "probabilistic angelic nondeterminism" ("PAN"), a programming model that disentangles these two concerns, allowing the programmer to describe the agent workflow and independently experiment with different inference-time strategies by simply changing a few inputs. We provide an implementation of PAN in Python as the EnCompass framework, which uses a Python decorator to compile agent workflow programs into a search space. We present three case studies that demonstrate how the framework lets the programmer quickly improve the reliability of an agent and easily switch between different inference-time strategies, all with little additional coding.

Tian Lan, Sunil Srinivasa, Huan Wang et al.

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful framework to train decision-making models in complex environments. However, RL can be slow as it requires repeated interaction with a simulation of the environment. In particular, there are key system engineering bottlenecks when using RL in complex environments that feature multiple agents with high-dimensional state, observation, or action spaces. We present WarpDrive, a flexible, lightweight, and easy-to-use open-source RL framework that implements end-to-end deep multi-agent RL on a single GPU (Graphics Processing Unit), built on PyCUDA and PyTorch. Using the extreme parallelization capability of GPUs, WarpDrive enables orders-of-magnitude faster RL compared to common implementations that blend CPU simulations and GPU models. Our design runs simulations and the agents in each simulation in parallel. It eliminates data copying between CPU and GPU. It also uses a single simulation data store on the GPU that is safely updated in-place. WarpDrive provides a lightweight Python interface and flexible environment wrappers that are easy to use and extend. Together, this allows the user to easily run thousands of concurrent multi-agent simulations and train on extremely large batches of experience. Through extensive experiments, we verify that WarpDrive provides high-throughput and scales almost linearly to many agents and parallel environments. For example, WarpDrive yields 2.9 million environment steps/second with 2000 environments and 1000 agents (at least 100x higher throughput compared to a CPU implementation) in a benchmark Tag simulation. As such, WarpDrive is a fast and extensible multi-agent RL platform to significantly accelerate research and development.

Nazneen Fatema Rajani, Rui Zhang, Yi Chern Tan et al.

Neural networks lack the ability to reason about qualitative physics and so cannot generalize to scenarios and tasks unseen during training. We propose ESPRIT, a framework for commonsense reasoning about qualitative physics in natural language that generates interpretable descriptions of physical events. We use a two-step approach of first identifying the pivotal physical events in an environment and then generating natural language descriptions of those events using a data-to-text approach. Our framework learns to generate explanations of how the physical simulation will causally evolve so that an agent or a human can easily reason about a solution using those interpretable descriptions. Human evaluations indicate that ESPRIT produces crucial fine-grained details and has high coverage of physical concepts compared to even human annotations. Dataset, code and documentation are available at https://github.com/salesforce/esprit.

Edwin Zhang, Sadie Zhao, Tonghan Wang et al. · harvard, tsinghua

Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds promise as a technology that can be used to improve government and economic policy-making. This paper proposes a new research agenda towards this end by introducing Social Environment Design, a general framework for the use of AI for automated policy-making that connects with the Reinforcement Learning, EconCS, and Computational Social Choice communities. The framework seeks to capture general economic environments, includes voting on policy objectives, and gives a direction for the systematic analysis of government and economic policy through AI simulation. We highlight key open problems for future research in AI-based policy-making. By solving these challenges, we hope to achieve various social welfare objectives, thereby promoting more ethical and responsible decision making.

Tong Mu, Stephan Zheng, Alexander Trott

Principal-Agent (PA) problems describe a broad class of economic relationships characterized by misaligned incentives and asymmetric information. The Principal's problem is to find optimal incentives given the available information, e.g., a manager setting optimal wages for its employees. Whereas the Principal is often assumed rational, comparatively little is known about solutions when the Principal is boundedly rational, especially in the sequential setting, with multiple Agents, and with multiple information channels. Here, we develop RIRL, a deep reinforcement learning framework that solves such complex PA problems with a rationally inattentive Principal. Such a Principal incurs a cost for paying attention to information, which can model forms of bounded rationality. We use RIRL to analyze rich economic phenomena in manager-employee relationships. In the single-step setting, 1) RIRL yields wages that are consistent with theoretical predictions; and 2) non-zero attention costs lead to simpler but less profitable wage structures, and increased Agent welfare. In a sequential setting with multiple Agents, RIRL shows opposing consequences of the Principal's inattention to different information channels: 1) inattention to Agents' outputs closes wage gaps based on ability differences; and 2) inattention to Agents' efforts induces a social dilemma dynamic in which Agents work harder, but essentially for free. Moreover, RIRL reveals non-trivial relationships between the Principal's inattention and Agent types, e.g., if Agents are prone to sub-optimal effort choices, payment schedules are more sensitive to the Principal's attention cost. As such, RIRL can reveal novel economic relationships and enables progress towards understanding the effects of bounded rationality in dynamic settings.

Michael Curry, Alexander Trott, Soham Phade et al.

Real economies can be modeled as a sequential imperfect-information game with many heterogeneous agents, such as consumers, firms, and governments. Dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) models are often used for macroeconomic analysis in this setting. However, finding general equilibria is challenging using existing theoretical or computational methods, especially when using microfoundations to model individual agents. Here, we show how to use deep multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) to find $ε$-meta-equilibria over agent types in microfounded DGE models. Whereas standard MARL fails to learn non-trivial solutions, our structured learning curricula enable stable convergence to meaningful solutions. Conceptually, our approach is more flexible and does not need unrealistic assumptions, e.g., continuous market clearing, that are commonly used for analytical tractability. Furthermore, our end-to-end GPU implementation enables fast real-time convergence with a large number of RL economic agents. We showcase our approach in open and closed real-business-cycle (RBC) models with 100 worker-consumers, 10 firms, and a social planner who taxes and redistributes. We validate the learned solutions are $ε$-meta-equilibria through best-response analyses, show that they align with economic intuitions, and show our approach can learn a spectrum of qualitatively distinct $ε$-meta-equilibria in open RBC models. As such, we show that hardware-accelerated MARL is a promising framework for modeling the complexity of economies based on microfoundations.

Alexander Lavin, David Krakauer, Hector Zenil et al.

The original "Seven Motifs" set forth a roadmap of essential methods for the field of scientific computing, where a motif is an algorithmic method that captures a pattern of computation and data movement. We present the "Nine Motifs of Simulation Intelligence", a roadmap for the development and integration of the essential algorithms necessary for a merger of scientific computing, scientific simulation, and artificial intelligence. We call this merger simulation intelligence (SI), for short. We argue the motifs of simulation intelligence are interconnected and interdependent, much like the components within the layers of an operating system. Using this metaphor, we explore the nature of each layer of the simulation intelligence operating system stack (SI-stack) and the motifs therein: (1) Multi-physics and multi-scale modeling; (2) Surrogate modeling and emulation; (3) Simulation-based inference; (4) Causal modeling and inference; (5) Agent-based modeling; (6) Probabilistic programming; (7) Differentiable programming; (8) Open-ended optimization; (9) Machine programming. We believe coordinated efforts between motifs offers immense opportunity to accelerate scientific discovery, from solving inverse problems in synthetic biology and climate science, to directing nuclear energy experiments and predicting emergent behavior in socioeconomic settings. We elaborate on each layer of the SI-stack, detailing the state-of-art methods, presenting examples to highlight challenges and opportunities, and advocating for specific ways to advance the motifs and the synergies from their combinations. Advancing and integrating these technologies can enable a robust and efficient hypothesis-simulation-analysis type of scientific method, which we introduce with several use-cases for human-machine teaming and automated science.

Alexander Trott, Sunil Srinivasa, Douwe van der Wal et al.

Optimizing economic and public policy is critical to address socioeconomic issues and trade-offs, e.g., improving equality, productivity, or wellness, and poses a complex mechanism design problem. A policy designer needs to consider multiple objectives, policy levers, and behavioral responses from strategic actors who optimize for their individual objectives. Moreover, real-world policies should be explainable and robust to simulation-to-reality gaps, e.g., due to calibration issues. Existing approaches are often limited to a narrow set of policy levers or objectives that are hard to measure, do not yield explicit optimal policies, or do not consider strategic behavior, for example. Hence, it remains challenging to optimize policy in real-world scenarios. Here we show that the AI Economist framework enables effective, flexible, and interpretable policy design using two-level reinforcement learning (RL) and data-driven simulations. We validate our framework on optimizing the stringency of US state policies and Federal subsidies during a pandemic, e.g., COVID-19, using a simulation fitted to real data. We find that log-linear policies trained using RL significantly improve social welfare, based on both public health and economic outcomes, compared to past outcomes. Their behavior can be explained, e.g., well-performing policies respond strongly to changes in recovery and vaccination rates. They are also robust to calibration errors, e.g., infection rates that are over or underestimated. As of yet, real-world policymaking has not seen adoption of machine learning methods at large, including RL and AI-driven simulations. Our results show the potential of AI to guide policy design and improve social welfare amidst the complexity of the real world.

Stephan Zheng, Alexander Trott, Sunil Srinivasa et al.

AI and reinforcement learning (RL) have improved many areas, but are not yet widely adopted in economic policy design, mechanism design, or economics at large. At the same time, current economic methodology is limited by a lack of counterfactual data, simplistic behavioral models, and limited opportunities to experiment with policies and evaluate behavioral responses. Here we show that machine-learning-based economic simulation is a powerful policy and mechanism design framework to overcome these limitations. The AI Economist is a two-level, deep RL framework that trains both agents and a social planner who co-adapt, providing a tractable solution to the highly unstable and novel two-level RL challenge. From a simple specification of an economy, we learn rational agent behaviors that adapt to learned planner policies and vice versa. We demonstrate the efficacy of the AI Economist on the problem of optimal taxation. In simple one-step economies, the AI Economist recovers the optimal tax policy of economic theory. In complex, dynamic economies, the AI Economist substantially improves both utilitarian social welfare and the trade-off between equality and productivity over baselines. It does so despite emergent tax-gaming strategies, while accounting for agent interactions and behavioral change more accurately than economic theory. These results demonstrate for the first time that two-level, deep RL can be used for understanding and as a complement to theory for economic design, unlocking a new computational learning-based approach to understanding economic policy.

Eric Zhao, Alexander R. Trott, Caiming Xiong et al.

We study the problem of training a principal in a multi-agent general-sum game using reinforcement learning (RL). Learning a robust principal policy requires anticipating the worst possible strategic responses of other agents, which is generally NP-hard. However, we show that no-regret dynamics can identify these worst-case responses in poly-time in smooth games. We propose a framework that uses this policy evaluation method for efficiently learning a robust principal policy using RL. This framework can be extended to provide robustness to boundedly rational agents too. Our motivating application is automated mechanism design: we empirically demonstrate our framework learns robust mechanisms in both matrix games and complex spatiotemporal games. In particular, we learn a dynamic tax policy that improves the welfare of a simulated trade-and-barter economy by 15%, even when facing previously unseen boundedly rational RL taxpayers.

Karan Goel, Nazneen Rajani, Jesse Vig et al.

Despite impressive performance on standard benchmarks, deep neural networks are often brittle when deployed in real-world systems. Consequently, recent research has focused on testing the robustness of such models, resulting in a diverse set of evaluation methodologies ranging from adversarial attacks to rule-based data transformations. In this work, we identify challenges with evaluating NLP systems and propose a solution in the form of Robustness Gym (RG), a simple and extensible evaluation toolkit that unifies 4 standard evaluation paradigms: subpopulations, transformations, evaluation sets, and adversarial attacks. By providing a common platform for evaluation, Robustness Gym enables practitioners to compare results from all 4 evaluation paradigms with just a few clicks, and to easily develop and share novel evaluation methods using a built-in set of abstractions. To validate Robustness Gym's utility to practitioners, we conducted a real-world case study with a sentiment-modeling team, revealing performance degradations of 18%+. To verify that Robustness Gym can aid novel research analyses, we perform the first study of state-of-the-art commercial and academic named entity linking (NEL) systems, as well as a fine-grained analysis of state-of-the-art summarization models. For NEL, commercial systems struggle to link rare entities and lag their academic counterparts by 10%+, while state-of-the-art summarization models struggle on examples that require abstraction and distillation, degrading by 9%+. Robustness Gym can be found at https://robustnessgym.com/

Alexander Lavin, Ciarán M. Gilligan-Lee, Alessya Visnjic et al.

The development and deployment of machine learning (ML) systems can be executed easily with modern tools, but the process is typically rushed and means-to-an-end. The lack of diligence can lead to technical debt, scope creep and misaligned objectives, model misuse and failures, and expensive consequences. Engineering systems, on the other hand, follow well-defined processes and testing standards to streamline development for high-quality, reliable results. The extreme is spacecraft systems, where mission critical measures and robustness are ingrained in the development process. Drawing on experience in both spacecraft engineering and ML (from research through product across domain areas), we have developed a proven systems engineering approach for machine learning development and deployment. Our "Machine Learning Technology Readiness Levels" (MLTRL) framework defines a principled process to ensure robust, reliable, and responsible systems while being streamlined for ML workflows, including key distinctions from traditional software engineering. Even more, MLTRL defines a lingua franca for people across teams and organizations to work collaboratively on artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies. Here we describe the framework and elucidate it with several real world use-cases of developing ML methods from basic research through productization and deployment, in areas such as medical diagnostics, consumer computer vision, satellite imagery, and particle physics.

Ian Foster, David Parkes, Stephan Zheng

The use of computational simulation is by now so pervasive in society that it is no exaggeration to say that continued U.S. and international prosperity, security, and health depend in part on continued improvements in simulation capabilities. What if we could predict weather two weeks out, guide the design of new drugs for new viral diseases, or manage new manufacturing processes that cut production costs and times by an order of magnitude? What if we could predict collective human behavior, for example, response to an evacuation request during a natural disaster, or labor response to fiscal stimulus? (See also the companion CCC Quad Paper on Pandemic Informatics, which discusses features that would be essential to solving large-scale problems like preparation for, and response to, the inevitable next pandemic.) The past decade has brought remarkable advances in complementary areas: in sensors, which can now capture enormous amounts of data about the world, and in AI methods capable of learning to extract predictive patterns from those data. These advances may lead to a new era in computational simulation, in which sensors of many kinds are used to produce vast quantities of data, AI methods identify patterns in those data, and new AI-driven simulators combine machine-learned and mathematical rules to make accurate and actionable predictions. At the same time, there are new challenges -- computers in some important regards are no longer getting faster, and in some areas we are reaching the limits of mathematical understanding, or at least of our ability to translate mathematical understanding into efficient simulation. In this paper, we lay out some themes that we envision forming part of a cohesive, multi-disciplinary, and application-inspired research agenda on AI-driven simulators.

Stephan Zheng, Alexander Trott, Sunil Srinivasa et al.

Tackling real-world socio-economic challenges requires designing and testing economic policies. However, this is hard in practice, due to a lack of appropriate (micro-level) economic data and limited opportunity to experiment. In this work, we train social planners that discover tax policies in dynamic economies that can effectively trade-off economic equality and productivity. We propose a two-level deep reinforcement learning approach to learn dynamic tax policies, based on economic simulations in which both agents and a government learn and adapt. Our data-driven approach does not make use of economic modeling assumptions, and learns from observational data alone. We make four main contributions. First, we present an economic simulation environment that features competitive pressures and market dynamics. We validate the simulation by showing that baseline tax systems perform in a way that is consistent with economic theory, including in regard to learned agent behaviors and specializations. Second, we show that AI-driven tax policies improve the trade-off between equality and productivity by 16% over baseline policies, including the prominent Saez tax framework. Third, we showcase several emergent features: AI-driven tax policies are qualitatively different from baselines, setting a higher top tax rate and higher net subsidies for low incomes. Moreover, AI-driven tax policies perform strongly in the face of emergent tax-gaming strategies learned by AI agents. Lastly, AI-driven tax policies are also effective when used in experiments with human participants. In experiments conducted on MTurk, an AI tax policy provides an equality-productivity trade-off that is similar to that provided by the Saez framework along with higher inverse-income weighted social welfare.

Jung Yeon Park, Kenneth Theo Carr, Stephan Zheng et al.

Efficient and interpretable spatial analysis is crucial in many fields such as geology, sports, and climate science. Tensor latent factor models can describe higher-order correlations for spatial data. However, they are computationally expensive to train and are sensitive to initialization, leading to spatially incoherent, uninterpretable results. We develop a novel Multiresolution Tensor Learning (MRTL) algorithm for efficiently learning interpretable spatial patterns. MRTL initializes the latent factors from an approximate full-rank tensor model for improved interpretability and progressively learns from a coarse resolution to the fine resolution to reduce computation. We also prove the theoretical convergence and computational complexity of MRTL. When applied to two real-world datasets, MRTL demonstrates 4~5x speedup compared to a fixed resolution approach while yielding accurate and interpretable latent factors.

Alexander Trott, Stephan Zheng, Caiming Xiong et al.

While using shaped rewards can be beneficial when solving sparse reward tasks, their successful application often requires careful engineering and is problem specific. For instance, in tasks where the agent must achieve some goal state, simple distance-to-goal reward shaping often fails, as it renders learning vulnerable to local optima. We introduce a simple and effective model-free method to learn from shaped distance-to-goal rewards on tasks where success depends on reaching a goal state. Our method introduces an auxiliary distance-based reward based on pairs of rollouts to encourage diverse exploration. This approach effectively prevents learning dynamics from stabilizing around local optima induced by the naive distance-to-goal reward shaping and enables policies to efficiently solve sparse reward tasks. Our augmented objective does not require any additional reward engineering or domain expertise to implement and converges to the original sparse objective as the agent learns to solve the task. We demonstrate that our method successfully solves a variety of hard-exploration tasks (including maze navigation and 3D construction in a Minecraft environment), where naive distance-based reward shaping otherwise fails, and intrinsic curiosity and reward relabeling strategies exhibit poor performance.

Michael Shum, Stephan Zheng, Wojciech Kryściński et al.

Human-like chit-chat conversation requires agents to generate responses that are fluent, engaging and consistent. We propose Sketch-Fill-A-R, a framework that uses a persona-memory to generate chit-chat responses in three phases. First, it generates dynamic sketch responses with open slots. Second, it generates candidate responses by filling slots with parts of its stored persona traits. Lastly, it ranks and selects the final response via a language model score. Sketch-Fill-A-R outperforms a state-of-the-art baseline both quantitatively (10-point lower perplexity) and qualitatively (preferred by 55% heads-up in single-turn and 20% higher in consistency in multi-turn user studies) on the Persona-Chat dataset. Finally, we extensively analyze Sketch-Fill-A-R's responses and human feedback, and show it is more consistent and engaging by using more relevant responses and questions.

Wenling Shang, Alex Trott, Stephan Zheng et al.

In many real-world scenarios, an autonomous agent often encounters various tasks within a single complex environment. We propose to build a graph abstraction over the environment structure to accelerate the learning of these tasks. Here, nodes are important points of interest (pivotal states) and edges represent feasible traversals between them. Our approach has two stages. First, we jointly train a latent pivotal state model and a curiosity-driven goal-conditioned policy in a task-agnostic manner. Second, provided with the information from the world graph, a high-level Manager quickly finds solution to new tasks and expresses subgoals in reference to pivotal states to a low-level Worker. The Worker can then also leverage the graph to easily traverse to the pivotal states of interest, even across long distance, and explore non-locally. We perform a thorough ablation study to evaluate our approach on a suite of challenging maze tasks, demonstrating significant advantages from the proposed framework over baselines that lack world graph knowledge in terms of performance and efficiency.

Huan Wang, Stephan Zheng, Caiming Xiong et al.

Understanding generalization in reinforcement learning (RL) is a significant challenge, as many common assumptions of traditional supervised learning theory do not apply. We focus on the special class of reparameterizable RL problems, where the trajectory distribution can be decomposed using the reparametrization trick. For this problem class, estimating the expected return is efficient and the trajectory can be computed deterministically given peripheral random variables, which enables us to study reparametrizable RL using supervised learning and transfer learning theory. Through these relationships, we derive guarantees on the gap between the expected and empirical return for both intrinsic and external errors, based on Rademacher complexity as well as the PAC-Bayes bound. Our bound suggests the generalization capability of reparameterizable RL is related to multiple factors including "smoothness" of the environment transition, reward and agent policy function class. We also empirically verify the relationship between the generalization gap and these factors through simulations.

Yukai Liu, Rose Yu, Stephan Zheng et al.

Missing value imputation is a fundamental problem in spatiotemporal modeling, from motion tracking to the dynamics of physical systems. Deep autoregressive models suffer from error propagation which becomes catastrophic for imputing long-range sequences. In this paper, we take a non-autoregressive approach and propose a novel deep generative model: Non-AutOregressive Multiresolution Imputation (NAOMI) to impute long-range sequences given arbitrary missing patterns. NAOMI exploits the multiresolution structure of spatiotemporal data and decodes recursively from coarse to fine-grained resolutions using a divide-and-conquer strategy. We further enhance our model with adversarial training. When evaluated extensively on benchmark datasets from systems of both deterministic and stochastic dynamics. NAOMI demonstrates significant improvement in imputation accuracy (reducing average prediction error by 60% compared to autoregressive counterparts) and generalization for long range sequences.

Eric Zhan, Stephan Zheng, Yisong Yue et al.

We study the problem of training sequential generative models for capturing coordinated multi-agent trajectory behavior, such as offensive basketball gameplay. When modeling such settings, it is often beneficial to design hierarchical models that can capture long-term coordination using intermediate variables. Furthermore, these intermediate variables should capture interesting high-level behavioral semantics in an interpretable and manipulatable way. We present a hierarchical framework that can effectively learn such sequential generative models. Our approach is inspired by recent work on leveraging programmatically produced weak labels, which we extend to the spatiotemporal regime. In addition to synthetic settings, we show how to instantiate our framework to effectively model complex interactions between basketball players and generate realistic multi-agent trajectories of basketball gameplay over long time periods. We validate our approach using both quantitative and qualitative evaluations, including a user study comparison conducted with professional sports analysts.

Sumanth Dathathri, Stephan Zheng, Tianwei Yin et al.

Deep neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial examples, which dramatically alter model output using small input changes. We propose Neural Fingerprinting, a simple, yet effective method to detect adversarial examples by verifying whether model behavior is consistent with a set of secret fingerprints, inspired by the use of biometric and cryptographic signatures. The benefits of our method are that 1) it is fast, 2) it is prohibitively expensive for an attacker to reverse-engineer which fingerprints were used, and 3) it does not assume knowledge of the adversary. In this work, we pose a formal framework to analyze fingerprints under various threat models, and characterize Neural Fingerprinting for linear models. For complex neural networks, we empirically demonstrate that Neural Fingerprinting significantly improves on state-of-the-art detection mechanisms by detecting the strongest known adversarial attacks with 98-100% AUC-ROC scores on the MNIST, CIFAR-10 and MiniImagenet (20 classes) datasets. In particular, the detection accuracy of Neural Fingerprinting generalizes well to unseen test-data under various black- and whitebox threat models, and is robust over a wide range of hyperparameters and choices of fingerprints.

Stephan Zheng, Rose Yu, Yisong Yue

High-dimensional tensor models are notoriously computationally expensive to train. We present a meta-learning algorithm, MMT, that can significantly speed up the process for spatial tensor models. MMT leverages the property that spatial data can be viewed at multiple resolutions, which are related by coarsening and finegraining from one resolution to another. Using this property, MMT learns a tensor model by starting from a coarse resolution and iteratively increasing the model complexity. In order to not "over-train" on coarse resolution models, we investigate an information-theoretic fine-graining criterion to decide when to transition into higher-resolution models. We provide both theoretical and empirical evidence for the advantages of this approach. When applied to two real-world large-scale spatial datasets for basketball player and animal behavior modeling, our approach demonstrate 3 key benefits: 1) it efficiently captures higher-order interactions (i.e., tensor latent factors), 2) it is orders of magnitude faster than fixed resolution learning and scales to very fine-grained spatial resolutions, and 3) it reliably yields accurate and interpretable models.

Rose Yu, Stephan Zheng, Anima Anandkumar et al.

We present Higher-Order Tensor RNN (HOT-RNN), a novel family of neural sequence architectures for multivariate forecasting in environments with nonlinear dynamics. Long-term forecasting in such systems is highly challenging, since there exist long-term temporal dependencies, higher-order correlations and sensitivity to error propagation. Our proposed recurrent architecture addresses these issues by learning the nonlinear dynamics directly using higher-order moments and higher-order state transition functions. Furthermore, we decompose the higher-order structure using the tensor-train decomposition to reduce the number of parameters while preserving the model performance. We theoretically establish the approximation guarantees and the variance bound for HOT-RNN for general sequence inputs. We also demonstrate 5% ~ 12% improvements for long-term prediction over general RNN and LSTM architectures on a range of simulated environments with nonlinear dynamics, as well on real-world time series data.

Long Sha, Patrick Lucey, Stephan Zheng et al.

We propose a novel method for effective retrieval of multi-agent spatiotemporal tracking data. Retrieval of spatiotemporal tracking data offers several unique challenges compared to conventional text-based retrieval settings. Most notably, the data is fine-grained meaning that the specific location of agents is important in describing behavior. Additionally, the data often contains tracks of multiple agents (e.g., multiple players in a sports game), which generally leads to a permutational alignment problem when performing relevance estimation. Due to the frequent position swap of agents, it is difficult to maintain the correspondence of agents, and such issues make the pairwise comparison problematic for multi-agent spatiotemporal data. To address this issue, we propose a tree-based method to estimate the relevance between multi-agent spatiotemporal tracks. It uses a hierarchical structure to perform multi-agent data alignment and partitioning in a coarse-to-fine fashion. We validate our approach via user studies with domain experts. Our results show that our method boosts performance in retrieving similar sports plays -- especially in interactive situations where the user selects a subset of trajectories compared to current state-of-the-art methods.

Stephan Zheng, Yisong Yue, Patrick Lucey

We study the problem of modeling spatiotemporal trajectories over long time horizons using expert demonstrations. For instance, in sports, agents often choose action sequences with long-term goals in mind, such as achieving a certain strategic position. Conventional policy learning approaches, such as those based on Markov decision processes, generally fail at learning cohesive long-term behavior in such high-dimensional state spaces, and are only effective when myopic modeling lead to the desired behavior. The key difficulty is that conventional approaches are "shallow" models that only learn a single state-action policy. We instead propose a hierarchical policy class that automatically reasons about both long-term and short-term goals, which we instantiate as a hierarchical neural network. We showcase our approach in a case study on learning to imitate demonstrated basketball trajectories, and show that it generates significantly more realistic trajectories compared to non-hierarchical baselines as judged by professional sports analysts.

Stephan Zheng, Yang Song, Thomas Leung et al.

In this paper we address the issue of output instability of deep neural networks: small perturbations in the visual input can significantly distort the feature embeddings and output of a neural network. Such instability affects many deep architectures with state-of-the-art performance on a wide range of computer vision tasks. We present a general stability training method to stabilize deep networks against small input distortions that result from various types of common image processing, such as compression, rescaling, and cropping. We validate our method by stabilizing the state-of-the-art Inception architecture against these types of distortions. In addition, we demonstrate that our stabilized model gives robust state-of-the-art performance on large-scale near-duplicate detection, similar-image ranking, and classification on noisy datasets.