Bennett McAfee

Abhilash Neog, Sepideh Fatemi, Medha Sawhney et al.

Understanding and forecasting lake dynamics is critical for monitoring water quality and ecosystem health across lakes and reservoirs. While machine learning methods have been recently applied to ecological time-series data, existing works assume regular sampling in time and depth, and struggle to generalize across lakes with heterogeneous variables, depths, and observation patterns. To address these limitations, we introduce \textsc{LakeFM}, a foundation model for aquatic systems, pre-trained on large-scale ecological datasets comprising both simulated and observed lakes. Through extensive empirical evaluation, we show that \textsc{LakeFM} learns meaningful representations spanning broader lake-level characteristics, and achieves competitive or often superior-forecasting performance compared to existing time-series foundation and non-foundation models, while producing physically plausible predictions consistent with real-world lake dynamics.

Abhilash Neog, Arka Daw, Sepideh Fatemi Khorasgani et al.

Modeling Irregularly-sampled and Multivariate Time Series (IMTS) is crucial across a variety of applications where different sets of variates may be missing at different time-steps due to sensor malfunctions or high data acquisition costs. Existing approaches for IMTS either consider a two-stage impute-then-model framework or involve specialized architectures specific to a particular model and task. We perform a series of experiments to derive novel insights about the performance of IMTS methods on a variety of semi-synthetic and real-world datasets for both classification and forecasting. We also introduce Missing Feature-aware Time Series Modeling (MissTSM) or MissTSM, a novel model-agnostic and imputation-free approach for IMTS modeling. We show that MissTSM shows competitive performance compared to other IMTS approaches, especially when the amount of missing values is large and the data lacks simplistic periodic structures - conditions common to real-world IMTS applications.