Tim Genewein

Jordi Grau-Moya, Grégoire Delétang, Markus Kunesch et al. · stanford

Meta-training agents with memory has been shown to culminate in Bayes-optimal agents, which casts Bayes-optimality as the implicit solution to a numerical optimization problem rather than an explicit modeling assumption. Bayes-optimal agents are risk-neutral, since they solely attune to the expected return, and ambiguity-neutral, since they act in new situations as if the uncertainty were known. This is in contrast to risk-sensitive agents, which additionally exploit the higher-order moments of the return, and ambiguity-sensitive agents, which act differently when recognizing situations in which they lack knowledge. Humans are also known to be averse to ambiguity and sensitive to risk in ways that aren't Bayes-optimal, indicating that such sensitivity can confer advantages, especially in safety-critical situations. How can we extend the meta-learning protocol to generate risk- and ambiguity-sensitive agents? The goal of this work is to fill this gap in the literature by showing that risk- and ambiguity-sensitivity also emerge as the result of an optimization problem using modified meta-training algorithms, which manipulate the experience-generation process of the learner. We empirically test our proposed meta-training algorithms on agents exposed to foundational classes of decision-making experiments and demonstrate that they become sensitive to risk and ambiguity.

Grégoire Delétang, Anian Ruoss, Paul-Ambroise Duquenne et al.

It has long been established that predictive models can be transformed into lossless compressors and vice versa. Incidentally, in recent years, the machine learning community has focused on training increasingly large and powerful self-supervised (language) models. Since these large language models exhibit impressive predictive capabilities, they are well-positioned to be strong compressors. In this work, we advocate for viewing the prediction problem through the lens of compression and evaluate the compression capabilities of large (foundation) models. We show that large language models are powerful general-purpose predictors and that the compression viewpoint provides novel insights into scaling laws, tokenization, and in-context learning. For example, Chinchilla 70B, while trained primarily on text, compresses ImageNet patches to 43.4% and LibriSpeech samples to 16.4% of their raw size, beating domain-specific compressors like PNG (58.5%) or FLAC (30.3%), respectively. Finally, we show that the prediction-compression equivalence allows us to use any compressor (like gzip) to build a conditional generative model.

Grégoire Delétang, Anian Ruoss, Jordi Grau-Moya et al.

Reliable generalization lies at the heart of safe ML and AI. However, understanding when and how neural networks generalize remains one of the most important unsolved problems in the field. In this work, we conduct an extensive empirical study (20'910 models, 15 tasks) to investigate whether insights from the theory of computation can predict the limits of neural network generalization in practice. We demonstrate that grouping tasks according to the Chomsky hierarchy allows us to forecast whether certain architectures will be able to generalize to out-of-distribution inputs. This includes negative results where even extensive amounts of data and training time never lead to any non-trivial generalization, despite models having sufficient capacity to fit the training data perfectly. Our results show that, for our subset of tasks, RNNs and Transformers fail to generalize on non-regular tasks, LSTMs can solve regular and counter-language tasks, and only networks augmented with structured memory (such as a stack or memory tape) can successfully generalize on context-free and context-sensitive tasks.

Tim Genewein, Grégoire Delétang, Anian Ruoss et al.

Memory-based meta-learning is a technique for approximating Bayes-optimal predictors. Under fairly general conditions, minimizing sequential prediction error, measured by the log loss, leads to implicit meta-learning. The goal of this work is to investigate how far this interpretation can be realized by current sequence prediction models and training regimes. The focus is on piecewise stationary sources with unobserved switching-points, which arguably capture an important characteristic of natural language and action-observation sequences in partially observable environments. We show that various types of memory-based neural models, including Transformers, LSTMs, and RNNs can learn to accurately approximate known Bayes-optimal algorithms and behave as if performing Bayesian inference over the latent switching-points and the latent parameters governing the data distribution within each segment.

Rob Brekelmans, Tim Genewein, Jordi Grau-Moya et al.

Policy regularization methods such as maximum entropy regularization are widely used in reinforcement learning to improve the robustness of a learned policy. In this paper, we show how this robustness arises from hedging against worst-case perturbations of the reward function, which are chosen from a limited set by an imagined adversary. Using convex duality, we characterize this robust set of adversarial reward perturbations under KL and alpha-divergence regularization, which includes Shannon and Tsallis entropy regularization as special cases. Importantly, generalization guarantees can be given within this robust set. We provide detailed discussion of the worst-case reward perturbations, and present intuitive empirical examples to illustrate this robustness and its relationship with generalization. Finally, we discuss how our analysis complements and extends previous results on adversarial reward robustness and path consistency optimality conditions.

Anian Ruoss, Fabio Pardo, Harris Chan et al.

In this paper, we present a benchmark to pressure-test today's frontier models' multimodal decision-making capabilities in the very long-context regime (up to one million tokens) and investigate whether these models can learn from large numbers of expert demonstrations in their context. We evaluate the performance of Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Gemini 1.5 Flash, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Gemini 2.0 Flash Experimental, GPT-4o, o1-mini, o1-preview, and o1 as policies across a battery of simple interactive decision-making tasks: playing tic-tac-toe, chess, and Atari, navigating grid worlds, solving crosswords, and controlling a simulated cheetah. We study increasing amounts of expert demonstrations in the context $\unicode{x2013}$ from no demonstrations to 512 full episodes. Across our tasks, models rarely manage to fully reach expert performance, and often, presenting more demonstrations has little effect. Some models steadily improve with more demonstrations on a few tasks. We investigate the effect of encoding observations as text or images and the impact of chain-of-thought prompting. To help quantify the impact of other approaches and future innovations, we open source our benchmark that covers the zero-, few-, and many-shot regimes in a unified evaluation.

Tim Genewein, Matija Franklin, Alexander Lerchner et al.

Over the last decade, building human-level artificial general intelligence has moved from far-fetched speculation to being a concrete next-decade target for many of the largest AI organisations. Achieving this goal would have profound and far-reaching impacts on human society, which raises many complex questions for the decade ahead. This report investigates how AI itself might continue to develop in a post-AGI world along the continuum of machine intelligence. The endpoint of this continuum, Universal AI, is theoretically well understood, which provides some formal grounding for the main focus of this report: the transition from human-level AGI to artificial general superintelligence, which, intuitively, can be understood as a system that is more intelligent and cognitively capable than large organisations of humans. After characterizing ASI, the report discusses four potential pathways from AGI to ASI: scaling AGI, AI paradigm shifts, recursive improvement, and ASI emerging from large-scale multi-agent collectives. The report then discusses possible frictions and bottlenecks along these pathways. Determining whether the impact of these frictions will be negligible or substantial raises a number of concrete open research questions. Due to large uncertainties for predicting ASI progress, it cannot be ruled out that AI progress might continue to accelerate over the next years. This could imply that the image of a single transformative step change, caused by the introduction of human-level AGI into our society, could be inaccurate. More apt might be the prospect of a series of transformative societal changes caused by AI-enabled progress and breakthroughs across many areas of science and technology. Preparing for this prospect requires a massively interdisciplinary endeavour of global scope and interest.

Li Kevin Wenliang, Anian Ruoss, Jordi Grau-Moya et al.

Large language models (LLMs) can be prompted to do many tasks, but finding good prompts is not always easy, nor is understanding some performant prompts. We explore these issues by viewing prompting as conditioning a near-optimal sequence predictor (LLM) pretrained on diverse data sources. Through numerous prompt search experiments, we show that the unintuitive patterns in optimal prompts can be better understood given the pretraining distribution, which is often unavailable in practice. Moreover, even using exhaustive search, reliably identifying optimal prompts from practical neural predictors can be difficult. Further, we demonstrate that common prompting methods, such as using intuitive prompts or samples from the targeted task, are in fact suboptimal. Thus, this work takes an initial step towards understanding the difficulties in finding and understanding optimal prompts from a statistical and empirical perspective.

Jordi Grau-Moya, Tim Genewein, Marcus Hutter et al.

Meta-learning has emerged as a powerful approach to train neural networks to learn new tasks quickly from limited data. Broad exposure to different tasks leads to versatile representations enabling general problem solving. But, what are the limits of meta-learning? In this work, we explore the potential of amortizing the most powerful universal predictor, namely Solomonoff Induction (SI), into neural networks via leveraging meta-learning to its limits. We use Universal Turing Machines (UTMs) to generate training data used to expose networks to a broad range of patterns. We provide theoretical analysis of the UTM data generation processes and meta-training protocols. We conduct comprehensive experiments with neural architectures (e.g. LSTMs, Transformers) and algorithmic data generators of varying complexity and universality. Our results suggest that UTM data is a valuable resource for meta-learning, and that it can be used to train neural networks capable of learning universal prediction strategies.

Anian Ruoss, Grégoire Delétang, Tim Genewein et al.

Transformers have impressive generalization capabilities on tasks with a fixed context length. However, they fail to generalize to sequences of arbitrary length, even for seemingly simple tasks such as duplicating a string. Moreover, simply training on longer sequences is inefficient due to the quadratic computation complexity of the global attention mechanism. In this work, we demonstrate that this failure mode is linked to positional encodings being out-of-distribution for longer sequences (even for relative encodings) and introduce a novel family of positional encodings that can overcome this problem. Concretely, our randomized positional encoding scheme simulates the positions of longer sequences and randomly selects an ordered subset to fit the sequence's length. Our large-scale empirical evaluation of 6000 models across 15 algorithmic reasoning tasks shows that our method allows Transformers to generalize to sequences of unseen length (increasing test accuracy by 12.0% on average).

Grégoire Delétang, Jordi Grau-Moya, Markus Kunesch et al.

We extend temporal-difference (TD) learning in order to obtain risk-sensitive, model-free reinforcement learning algorithms. This extension can be regarded as modification of the Rescorla-Wagner rule, where the (sigmoidal) stimulus is taken to be either the event of over- or underestimating the TD target. As a result, one obtains a stochastic approximation rule for estimating the free energy from i.i.d. samples generated by a Gaussian distribution with unknown mean and variance. Since the Gaussian free energy is known to be a certainty-equivalent sensitive to the mean and the variance, the learning rule has applications in risk-sensitive decision-making.

Pedro A. Ortega, Markus Kunesch, Grégoire Delétang et al.

The recent phenomenal success of language models has reinvigorated machine learning research, and large sequence models such as transformers are being applied to a variety of domains. One important problem class that has remained relatively elusive however is purposeful adaptive behavior. Currently there is a common perception that sequence models "lack the understanding of the cause and effect of their actions" leading them to draw incorrect inferences due to auto-suggestive delusions. In this report we explain where this mismatch originates, and show that it can be resolved by treating actions as causal interventions. Finally, we show that in supervised learning, one can teach a system to condition or intervene on data by training with factual and counterfactual error signals respectively.

Grégoire Déletang, Jordi Grau-Moya, Miljan Martic et al.

As machine learning systems become more powerful they also become increasingly unpredictable and opaque. Yet, finding human-understandable explanations of how they work is essential for their safe deployment. This technical report illustrates a methodology for investigating the causal mechanisms that drive the behaviour of artificial agents. Six use cases are covered, each addressing a typical question an analyst might ask about an agent. In particular, we show that each question cannot be addressed by pure observation alone, but instead requires conducting experiments with systematically chosen manipulations so as to generate the correct causal evidence.

Tim Genewein, Tom McGrath, Grégoire Déletang et al.

Probability trees are one of the simplest models of causal generative processes. They possess clean semantics and -- unlike causal Bayesian networks -- they can represent context-specific causal dependencies, which are necessary for e.g. causal induction. Yet, they have received little attention from the AI and ML community. Here we present concrete algorithms for causal reasoning in discrete probability trees that cover the entire causal hierarchy (association, intervention, and counterfactuals), and operate on arbitrary propositional and causal events. Our work expands the domain of causal reasoning to a very general class of discrete stochastic processes.

Vladimir Mikulik, Grégoire Delétang, Tom McGrath et al.

Memory-based meta-learning is a powerful technique to build agents that adapt fast to any task within a target distribution. A previous theoretical study has argued that this remarkable performance is because the meta-training protocol incentivises agents to behave Bayes-optimally. We empirically investigate this claim on a number of prediction and bandit tasks. Inspired by ideas from theoretical computer science, we show that meta-learned and Bayes-optimal agents not only behave alike, but they even share a similar computational structure, in the sense that one agent system can approximately simulate the other. Furthermore, we show that Bayes-optimal agents are fixed points of the meta-learning dynamics. Our results suggest that memory-based meta-learning might serve as a general technique for numerically approximating Bayes-optimal agents - that is, even for task distributions for which we currently don't possess tractable models.

Chaithanya Kumar Mummadi, Tim Genewein, Dan Zhang et al.

Deep neural networks achieve state-of-the-art results on several tasks while increasing in complexity. It has been shown that neural networks can be pruned during training by imposing sparsity inducing regularizers. In this paper, we investigate two techniques for group-wise pruning during training in order to improve network efficiency. We propose a gating factor after every convolutional layer to induce channel level sparsity, encouraging insignificant channels to become exactly zero. Further, we introduce and analyse a bounded variant of the L1 regularizer, which interpolates between L1 and L0-norms to retain performance of the network at higher pruning rates. To underline effectiveness of the proposed methods,we show that the number of parameters of ResNet-164, DenseNet-40 and MobileNetV2 can be reduced down by 30%, 69% and 75% on CIFAR100 respectively without a significant drop in accuracy. We achieve state-of-the-art pruning results for ResNet-50 with higher accuracy on ImageNet. Furthermore, we show that the light weight MobileNetV2 can further be compressed on ImageNet without a significant drop in performance.

Pedro A. Ortega, Jane X. Wang, Mark Rowland et al.

In this report we review memory-based meta-learning as a tool for building sample-efficient strategies that learn from past experience to adapt to any task within a target class. Our goal is to equip the reader with the conceptual foundations of this tool for building new, scalable agents that operate on broad domains. To do so, we present basic algorithmic templates for building near-optimal predictors and reinforcement learners which behave as if they had a probabilistic model that allowed them to efficiently exploit task structure. Furthermore, we recast memory-based meta-learning within a Bayesian framework, showing that the meta-learned strategies are near-optimal because they amortize Bayes-filtered data, where the adaptation is implemented in the memory dynamics as a state-machine of sufficient statistics. Essentially, memory-based meta-learning translates the hard problem of probabilistic sequential inference into a regression problem.

Giorgio Patrini, Rianne van den Berg, Patrick Forré et al.

Optimal transport offers an alternative to maximum likelihood for learning generative autoencoding models. We show that minimizing the p-Wasserstein distance between the generator and the true data distribution is equivalent to the unconstrained min-min optimization of the p-Wasserstein distance between the encoder aggregated posterior and the prior in latent space, plus a reconstruction error. We also identify the role of its trade-off hyperparameter as the capacity of the generator: its Lipschitz constant. Moreover, we prove that optimizing the encoder over any class of universal approximators, such as deterministic neural networks, is enough to come arbitrarily close to the optimum. We therefore advertise this framework, which holds for any metric space and prior, as a sweet-spot of current generative autoencoding objectives. We then introduce the Sinkhorn auto-encoder (SAE), which approximates and minimizes the p-Wasserstein distance in latent space via backprogation through the Sinkhorn algorithm. SAE directly works on samples, i.e. it models the aggregated posterior as an implicit distribution, with no need for a reparameterization trick for gradients estimations. SAE is thus able to work with different metric spaces and priors with minimal adaptations. We demonstrate the flexibility of SAE on latent spaces with different geometries and priors and compare with other methods on benchmark data sets.

Zhen Peng, Tim Genewein, Felix Leibfried et al.

Inspired by findings of sensorimotor coupling in humans and animals, there has recently been a growing interest in the interaction between action and perception in robotic systems [Bogh et al., 2016]. Here we consider perception and action as two serial information channels with limited information-processing capacity. We follow [Genewein et al., 2015] and formulate a constrained optimization problem that maximizes utility under limited information-processing capacity in the two channels. As a solution we obtain an optimal perceptual channel and an optimal action channel that are coupled such that perceptual information is optimized with respect to downstream processing in the action module. The main novelty of this study is that we propose an online optimization procedure to find bounded-optimal perception and action channels in parameterized serial perception-action systems. In particular, we implement the perceptual channel as a multi-layer neural network and the action channel as a multinomial distribution. We illustrate our method in a NAO robot simulator with a simplified cup lifting task.

Jan Hendrik Metzen, Tim Genewein, Volker Fischer et al.

Machine learning and deep learning in particular has advanced tremendously on perceptual tasks in recent years. However, it remains vulnerable against adversarial perturbations of the input that have been crafted specifically to fool the system while being quasi-imperceptible to a human. In this work, we propose to augment deep neural networks with a small "detector" subnetwork which is trained on the binary classification task of distinguishing genuine data from data containing adversarial perturbations. Our method is orthogonal to prior work on addressing adversarial perturbations, which has mostly focused on making the classification network itself more robust. We show empirically that adversarial perturbations can be detected surprisingly well even though they are quasi-imperceptible to humans. Moreover, while the detectors have been trained to detect only a specific adversary, they generalize to similar and weaker adversaries. In addition, we propose an adversarial attack that fools both the classifier and the detector and a novel training procedure for the detector that counteracts this attack.

Jordi Grau-Moya, Felix Leibfried, Tim Genewein et al.

Information-theoretic principles for learning and acting have been proposed to solve particular classes of Markov Decision Problems. Mathematically, such approaches are governed by a variational free energy principle and allow solving MDP planning problems with information-processing constraints expressed in terms of a Kullback-Leibler divergence with respect to a reference distribution. Here we consider a generalization of such MDP planners by taking model uncertainty into account. As model uncertainty can also be formalized as an information-processing constraint, we can derive a unified solution from a single generalized variational principle. We provide a generalized value iteration scheme together with a convergence proof. As limit cases, this generalized scheme includes standard value iteration with a known model, Bayesian MDP planning, and robust planning. We demonstrate the benefits of this approach in a grid world simulation.

Tim Genewein, Daniel A. Braun

A distinctive property of human and animal intelligence is the ability to form abstractions by neglecting irrelevant information which allows to separate structure from noise. From an information theoretic point of view abstractions are desirable because they allow for very efficient information processing. In artificial systems abstractions are often implemented through computationally costly formations of groups or clusters. In this work we establish the relation between the free-energy framework for decision making and rate-distortion theory and demonstrate how the application of rate-distortion for decision-making leads to the emergence of abstractions. We argue that abstractions are induced due to a limit in information processing capacity.

Pedro A. Ortega, Jordi Grau-Moya, Tim Genewein et al.

We propose a novel Bayesian approach to solve stochastic optimization problems that involve finding extrema of noisy, nonlinear functions. Previous work has focused on representing possible functions explicitly, which leads to a two-step procedure of first, doing inference over the function space and second, finding the extrema of these functions. Here we skip the representation step and directly model the distribution over extrema. To this end, we devise a non-parametric conjugate prior based on a kernel regressor. The resulting posterior distribution directly captures the uncertainty over the maximum of the unknown function. We illustrate the effectiveness of our model by optimizing a noisy, high-dimensional, non-convex objective function.