Hironori Fujisawa

Masaaki Takada, Hironori Fujisawa

This paper presents a comprehensive exploration of the theoretical properties inherent in the Adaptive Lasso and the Transfer Lasso. The Adaptive Lasso, a well-established method, employs regularization divided by initial estimators and is characterized by asymptotic normality and variable selection consistency. In contrast, the recently proposed Transfer Lasso employs regularization subtracted by initial estimators with the demonstrated capacity to curtail non-asymptotic estimation errors. A pivotal question thus emerges: Given the distinct ways the Adaptive Lasso and the Transfer Lasso employ initial estimators, what benefits or drawbacks does this disparity confer upon each method? This paper conducts a theoretical examination of the asymptotic properties of the Transfer Lasso, thereby elucidating its differentiation from the Adaptive Lasso. Informed by the findings of this analysis, we introduce a novel method, one that amalgamates the strengths and compensates for the weaknesses of both methods. The paper concludes with validations of our theory and comparisons of the methods via simulation experiments.

Takeyuki Sasai, Hironori Fujisawa

We investigate a problem estimating coefficients of linear regression under sparsity assumption when covariates and noises are sampled from heavy tailed distributions. Additionally, we consider the situation where not only covariates and noises are sampled from heavy tailed distributions but also contaminated by outliers. Our estimators can be computed efficiently, and exhibit sharp error bounds.

Ryosuke Nagumo, Hironori Fujisawa

We examine the non-asymptotic properties of robust density ratio estimation (DRE) in contaminated settings. Weighted DRE is the most promising among existing methods, exhibiting doubly strong robustness from an asymptotic perspective. This study demonstrates that Weighted DRE achieves sparse consistency even under heavy contamination within a non-asymptotic framework. This method addresses two significant challenges in density ratio estimation and robust estimation. For density ratio estimation, we provide the non-asymptotic properties of estimating unbounded density ratios under the assumption that the weighted density ratio function is bounded. For robust estimation, we introduce a non-asymptotic framework for doubly strong robustness under heavy contamination, assuming that at least one of the following conditions holds: (i) contamination ratios are small, and (ii) outliers have small weighted values. This work provides the first non-asymptotic analysis of strong robustness under heavy contamination.

Yuta Shikuri, Hironori Fujisawa

Spatial prediction refers to the estimation of unobserved values from spatially distributed observations. Although recent advances have improved the capacity to model diverse observation types, adoption in practice remains limited in industries that demand interpretability. To mitigate this gap, surrogate models that explain black-box predictors provide a promising path toward interpretable decision making. In this study, we propose a graph partitioning problem to construct spatial segments that minimize the sum of within-segment variances of individual predictions. The assignment of data points to segments can be formulated as a mixed-integer quadratic programming problem. While this formulation potentially enables the identification of exact segments, its computational complexity becomes prohibitive as the number of data points increases. Motivated by this challenge, we develop an approximation scheme that leverages the structural properties of graph partitioning. Experimental results demonstrate the computational efficiency of this approximation in identifying spatial segments.

Yuta Shikuri, Hironori Fujisawa

Survival analysis is a statistical technique used to estimate the time until an event occurs. Although it is applied across a wide range of fields, adjusting for reporting delays under practical constraints remains a significant challenge in the insurance industry. Such delays render event occurrences unobservable when their reports are subject to right censoring. This issue becomes particularly critical when estimating hazard rates for newly enrolled cohorts with limited follow-up due to administrative censoring. Our study addresses this challenge by jointly modeling the parametric hazard functions of event occurrences and report timings. The joint probability distribution is marginalized over the latent event occurrence status. We construct an estimator for the proposed survival model and establish its asymptotic consistency. Furthermore, we develop an expectation-maximization algorithm to compute its estimates. Using these findings, we propose a two-stage estimation procedure based on a parametric proportional hazards model to evaluate observations subject to administrative censoring. Experimental results demonstrate that our method effectively improves the timeliness of risk evaluation for newly enrolled cohorts.

Takeyuki Sasai, Hironori Fujisawa

We consider a robust estimation of linear regression coefficients. In this note, we focus on the case where the covariates are sampled from an $L$-subGaussian distribution with unknown covariance, the noises are sampled from a distribution with a bounded absolute moment and both covariates and noises may be contaminated by an adversary. We derive an estimation error bound, which depends on the stable rank and the condition number of the covariance matrix of covariates with a polynomial computational complexity of estimation.

Takeyuki Sasai, Hironori Fujisawa

We consider robust low rank matrix estimation as a trace regression when outputs are contaminated by adversaries. The adversaries are allowed to add arbitrary values to arbitrary outputs. Such values can depend on any samples. We deal with matrix compressed sensing, including lasso as a partial problem, and matrix completion, and then we obtain sharp estimation error bounds. To obtain the error bounds for different models such as matrix compressed sensing and matrix completion, we propose a simple unified approach based on a combination of the Huber loss function and the nuclear norm penalization, which is a different approach from the conventional ones. Some error bounds obtained in the present paper are sharper than the past ones.

Kazuharu Harada, Hironori Fujisawa

We consider the problem of inferring the causal structure from observational data, especially when the structure is sparse. This type of problem is usually formulated as an inference of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) model. The linear non-Gaussian acyclic model (LiNGAM) is one of the most successful DAG models, and various estimation methods have been developed. However, existing methods are not efficient for some reasons: (i) the sparse structure is not always incorporated in causal order estimation, and (ii) the whole information of the data is not used in parameter estimation. To address {these issues}, we propose a new estimation method for a linear DAG model with non-Gaussian noises. The proposed method is based on the log-likelihood of independent component analysis (ICA) with two penalty terms related to the sparsity and the consistency condition. The proposed method enables us to estimate the causal order and the parameters simultaneously. For stable and efficient optimization, we propose some devices, such as a modified natural gradient. Numerical experiments show that the proposed method outperforms existing methods, including LiNGAM and NOTEARS.

Masaaki Takada, Hironori Fujisawa

Machine learning algorithms typically require abundant data under a stationary environment. However, environments are nonstationary in many real-world applications. Critical issues lie in how to effectively adapt models under an ever-changing environment. We propose a method for transferring knowledge from a source domain to a target domain via $\ell_1$ regularization. We incorporate $\ell_1$ regularization of differences between source parameters and target parameters, in addition to an ordinary $\ell_1$ regularization. Hence, our method yields sparsity for both the estimates themselves and changes of the estimates. The proposed method has a tight estimation error bound under a stationary environment, and the estimate remains unchanged from the source estimate under small residuals. Moreover, the estimate is consistent with the underlying function, even when the source estimate is mistaken due to nonstationarity. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively balances stability and plasticity.

Takeyuki Sasai, Hironori Fujisawa

We consider robust estimation when outputs are adversarially contaminated. Nguyen and Tran (2012) proposed an extended Lasso for robust parameter estimation and then they showed the convergence rate of the estimation error. Recently, Dalalyan and Thompson (2019) gave some useful inequalities and then they showed a faster convergence rate than Nguyen and Tran (2012). They focused on the fact that the minimization problem of the extended Lasso can become that of the penalized Huber loss function with $L_1$ penalty. The distinguishing point is that the Huber loss function includes an extra tuning parameter, which is different from the conventional method. We give the proof, which is different from Dalalyan and Thompson (2019) and then we give the same convergence rate as Dalalyan and Thompson (2019). The significance of our proof is to use some specific properties of the Huber function. Such techniques have not been used in the past proofs.

Masaaki Takada, Hironori Fujisawa, Takeichiro Nishikawa

Sparse regression such as the Lasso has achieved great success in handling high-dimensional data. However, one of the biggest practical problems is that high-dimensional data often contain large amounts of missing values. Convex Conditioned Lasso (CoCoLasso) has been proposed for dealing with high-dimensional data with missing values, but it performs poorly when there are many missing values, so that the high missing rate problem has not been resolved. In this paper, we propose a novel Lasso-type regression method for high-dimensional data with high missing rates. We effectively incorporate mean imputed covariance, overcoming its inherent estimation bias. The result is an optimally weighted modification of CoCoLasso according to missing ratios. We theoretically and experimentally show that our proposed method is highly effective even when there are many missing values.

Takayuki Kawashima, Hironori Fujisawa

The stochastic gradient descent has been widely used for solving composite optimization problems in big data analyses. Many algorithms and convergence properties have been developed. The composite functions were convex primarily and gradually nonconvex composite functions have been adopted to obtain more desirable properties. The convergence properties have been investigated, but only when either of composite functions is nonconvex. There is no convergence property when both composite functions are nonconvex, which is named the \textit{doubly-nonconvex} case.To overcome this difficulty, we assume a simple and weak condition that the penalty function is \textit{quasiconvex} and then we obtain convergence properties for the stochastic doubly-nonconvex composite optimization problem.The convergence rate obtained here is of the same order as the existing work.We deeply analyze the convergence rate with the constant step size and mini-batch size and give the optimal convergence rate with appropriate sizes, which is superior to the existing work. Experimental results illustrate that our method is superior to existing methods.

Takayuki Kawashima, Hironori Fujisawa

The generalized linear model (GLM) plays a key role in regression analyses. In high-dimensional data, the sparse GLM has been used but it is not robust against outliers. Recently, the robust methods have been proposed for the specific example of the sparse GLM. Among them, we focus on the robust and sparse linear regression based on the $γ$-divergence. The estimator of the $γ$-divergence has strong robustness under heavy contamination. In this paper, we extend the robust and sparse linear regression based on the $γ$-divergence to the robust and sparse GLM based on the $γ$-divergence with a stochastic optimization approach in order to obtain the estimate. We adopt the randomized stochastic projected gradient descent as a stochastic optimization approach and extend the established convergence property to the classical first-order necessary condition. By virtue of the stochastic optimization approach, we can efficiently estimate parameters for very large problems. Particularly, we show the linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression with $L_1$ regularization in detail as specific examples of robust and sparse GLM. In numerical experiments and real data analysis, the proposed method outperformed comparative methods.

Masaaki Takada, Taiji Suzuki, Hironori Fujisawa

Sparse regularization such as $\ell_1$ regularization is a quite powerful and widely used strategy for high dimensional learning problems. The effectiveness of sparse regularization has been supported practically and theoretically by several studies. However, one of the biggest issues in sparse regularization is that its performance is quite sensitive to correlations between features. Ordinary $\ell_1$ regularization can select variables correlated with each other, which results in deterioration of not only its generalization error but also interpretability. In this paper, we propose a new regularization method, "Independently Interpretable Lasso" (IILasso). Our proposed regularizer suppresses selecting correlated variables, and thus each active variable independently affects the objective variable in the model. Hence, we can interpret regression coefficients intuitively and also improve the performance by avoiding overfitting. We analyze theoretical property of IILasso and show that the proposed method is much advantageous for its sign recovery and achieves almost minimax optimal convergence rate. Synthetic and real data analyses also indicate the effectiveness of IILasso.

Shuichi Kawano, Hironori Fujisawa, Toyoyuki Takada et al.

Principal component regression (PCR) is a widely used two-stage procedure: principal component analysis (PCA), followed by regression in which the selected principal components are regarded as new explanatory variables in the model. Note that PCA is based only on the explanatory variables, so the principal components are not selected using the information on the response variable. In this paper, we propose a one-stage procedure for PCR in the framework of generalized linear models. The basic loss function is based on a combination of the regression loss and PCA loss. An estimate of the regression parameter is obtained as the minimizer of the basic loss function with a sparse penalty. We call the proposed method sparse principal component regression for generalized linear models (SPCR-glm). Taking the two loss function into consideration simultaneously, SPCR-glm enables us to obtain sparse principal component loadings that are related to a response variable. However, a combination of loss functions may cause a parameter identification problem, but this potential problem is avoided by virtue of the sparse penalty. Thus, the sparse penalty plays two roles in this method. The parameter estimation procedure is proposed using various update algorithms with the coordinate descent algorithm. We apply SPCR-glm to two real datasets, doctor visits data and mouse consomic strain data. SPCR-glm provides more easily interpretable principal component (PC) scores and clearer classification on PC plots than the usual PCA.

Takayuki Kawashima, Hironori Fujisawa

In high-dimensional data, many sparse regression methods have been proposed. However, they may not be robust against outliers. Recently, the use of density power weight has been studied for robust parameter estimation and the corresponding divergences have been discussed. One of such divergences is the $γ$-divergence and the robust estimator using the $γ$-divergence is known for having a strong robustness. In this paper, we consider the robust and sparse regression based on $γ$-divergence. We extend the $γ$-divergence to the regression problem and show that it has a strong robustness under heavy contamination even when outliers are heterogeneous. The loss function is constructed by an empirical estimate of the $γ$-divergence with sparse regularization and the parameter estimate is defined as the minimizer of the loss function. To obtain the robust and sparse estimate, we propose an efficient update algorithm which has a monotone decreasing property of the loss function. Particularly, we discuss a linear regression problem with $L_1$ regularization in detail. In numerical experiments and real data analyses, we see that the proposed method outperforms past robust and sparse methods.

Shuichi Kawano, Hironori Fujisawa, Toyoyuki Takada et al.

Principal component regression (PCR) is a two-stage procedure that selects some principal components and then constructs a regression model regarding them as new explanatory variables. Note that the principal components are obtained from only explanatory variables and not considered with the response variable. To address this problem, we propose the sparse principal component regression (SPCR) that is a one-stage procedure for PCR. SPCR enables us to adaptively obtain sparse principal component loadings that are related to the response variable and select the number of principal components simultaneously. SPCR can be obtained by the convex optimization problem for each of parameters with the coordinate descent algorithm. Monte Carlo simulations and real data analyses are performed to illustrate the effectiveness of SPCR.

Takafumi Kanamori, Hironori Fujisawa

In statistical analysis, measuring a score of predictive performance is an important task. In many scientific fields, appropriate scores were tailored to tackle the problems at hand. A proper score is a popular tool to obtain statistically consistent forecasts. Furthermore, a mathematical characterization of the proper score was studied. As a result, it was revealed that the proper score corresponds to a Bregman divergence, which is an extension of the squared distance over the set of probability distributions. In the present paper, we introduce composite scores as an extension of the typical scores in order to obtain a wider class of probabilistic forecasting. Then, we propose a class of composite scores, named Holder scores, that induce equivariant estimators. The equivariant estimators have a favorable property, implying that the estimator is transformed in a consistent way, when the data is transformed. In particular, we deal with the affine transformation of the data. By using the equivariant estimators under the affine transformation, one can obtain estimators that do no essentially depend on the choice of the system of units in the measurement. Conversely, we prove that the Holder score is characterized by the invariance property under the affine transformations. Furthermore, we investigate statistical properties of the estimators using Holder scores for the statistical problems including estimation of regression functions and robust parameter estimation, and illustrate the usefulness of the newly introduced scores for statistical forecasting.