Chris Stanford

Haoxuan Ma, Xishun Liao, Yifan Liu et al. · stanford

This paper addresses a critical gap in urban mobility modeling by focusing on shift workers, a population segment comprising 15-20% of the workforce in industrialized societies yet systematically underrepresented in traditional transportation surveys and planning. This underrepresentation is revealed in this study by a comparative analysis of GPS and survey data, highlighting stark differences between the bimodal temporal patterns of shift workers and the conventional 9-to-5 schedules recorded in surveys. To address this bias, we introduce a novel transformer-based approach that leverages fragmented GPS trajectory data to generate complete, behaviorally valid activity patterns for individuals working non-standard hours. Our method employs periodaware temporal embeddings and a transition-focused loss function specifically designed to capture the unique activity rhythms of shift workers and mitigate the inherent biases in conventional transportation datasets. Evaluation shows that the generated data achieves remarkable distributional alignment with GPS data from Los Angeles County (Average JSD < 0.02 for all evaluation metrics). By transforming incomplete GPS traces into complete, representative activity patterns, our approach provides transportation planners with a powerful data augmentation tool to fill critical gaps in understanding the 24/7 mobility needs of urban populations, enabling precise and inclusive transportation planning.

Xishun Liao, Haoxuan Ma, Yifan Liu et al. · stanford

Travel demand models are critical tools for planning, policy, and mobility system design. Traditional activity-based models (ABMs), although grounded in behavioral theories, often rely on simplified rules and assumptions, and are costly to develop and difficult to adapt across different regions. This paper presents a learning-based travel demand modeling framework that synthesizes household-coordinated daily activity patterns based on a household's socio-demographic profiles. The whole framework integrates population synthesis, coordinated activity generation, location assignment, and large-scale microscopic traffic simulation into a unified system. It is fully generative, data-driven, scalable, and transferable to other regions. A full-pipeline implementation is conducted in Los Angeles with a 10 million population. Comprehensive validation shows that the model closely replicates real-world mobility patterns and matches the performance of legacy ABMs with significantly reduced modeling cost and greater scalability. With respect to the SCAG ABM benchmark, the origin-destination matrix achieves a cosine similarity of 0.97, and the daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the network yields a 0.006 Jensen-Shannon Divergence (JSD) and a 9.8% mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). When compared to real-world observations from Caltrans PeMS, the evaluation on corridor-level traffic speed and volume reaches a 0.001 JSD and a 6.11% MAPE.