Joseph Ternasky

Xianling Mu, Joseph Ternasky, Fuat Alican et al.

Early-stage startup investment is a high-risk endeavor characterized by scarce data and uncertain outcomes. Traditional machine learning approaches often require large, labeled datasets and extensive fine-tuning, yet remain opaque and difficult for domain experts to interpret or improve. In this paper, we propose a transparent and data-efficient investment decision framework powered by memory-augmented large language models (LLMs) using in-context learning (ICL). Central to our method is a natural language policy embedded directly into the LLM prompt, enabling the model to apply explicit reasoning patterns and allowing human experts to easily interpret, audit, and iteratively refine the logic. We introduce a lightweight training process that combines few-shot learning with an in-context learning loop, enabling the LLM to update its decision policy iteratively based on structured feedback. With only minimal supervision and no gradient-based optimization, our system predicts startup success far more accurately than existing benchmarks. It is over 20x more precise than random chance, which succeeds 1.9% of the time. It is also 7.1x more precise than the typical 5.6% success rate of top-tier venture capital (VC) firms.

Ben Griffin, Diego Vidaurre, Ugur Koyluoglu et al.

Predicting rare outcomes such as startup success is central to venture capital, demanding models that are both accurate and interpretable. We introduce Random Rule Forest (RRF), a lightweight ensemble method that uses a large language model (LLM) to generate simple YES/NO questions in natural language. Each question functions as a weak learner, and their responses are combined using a threshold-based voting rule to form a strong, interpretable predictor. Applied to a dataset of 9,892 founders, RRF achieves a 6.9x improvement over a random baseline on held-out data; adding expert-crafted questions lifts this to 8x and highlights the value of human-LLM collaboration. Compared with zero- and few-shot baselines across three LLM architectures, RRF attains an F0.5 of 0.121, versus 0.086 for the best baseline (+0.035 absolute, +41% relative). By combining the creativity of LLMs with the rigor of ensemble learning, RRF delivers interpretable, high-precision predictions suitable for decision-making in high-stakes domains.

Jack Preuveneers, Joseph Ternasky, Fuat Alican et al.

We present a novel framework that bridges the gap between the interpretability of decision trees and the advanced reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) to predict startup success. Our approach leverages chain-of-thought prompting to generate detailed reasoning logs, which are subsequently distilled into structured, human-understandable logical rules. The pipeline integrates multiple enhancements - efficient data ingestion, a two-step refinement process, ensemble candidate sampling, simulated reinforcement learning scoring, and persistent memory - to ensure both stable decision-making and transparent output. Experimental evaluations on curated startup datasets demonstrate that our combined pipeline improves precision by 54% from 0.225 to 0.346 and accuracy by 50% from 0.46 to 0.70 compared to a standalone OpenAI o3 model. Notably, our model achieves over 2x the precision of a random classifier (16%). By combining state-of-the-art AI reasoning with explicit rule-based explanations, our method not only augments traditional decision-making processes but also facilitates expert intervention and continuous policy refinement. This work lays the foundation for the implementation of interpretable LLM-powered decision frameworks in high-stakes investment environments and other domains that require transparent and data-driven insights.

Rick Chen, Joseph Ternasky, Afriyie Samuel Kwesi et al.

Benchmarks such as SWE-bench and ARC-AGI demonstrate how shared datasets accelerate progress toward artificial general intelligence (AGI). We introduce VCBench, the first benchmark for predicting founder success in venture capital (VC), a domain where signals are sparse, outcomes are uncertain, and even top investors perform modestly. At inception, the market index achieves a precision of 1.9%. Y Combinator outperforms the index by a factor of 1.7x, while tier-1 firms are 2.9x better. VCBench provides 9,000 anonymized founder profiles, standardized to preserve predictive features while resisting identity leakage, with adversarial tests showing more than 90% reduction in re-identification risk. We evaluate nine state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs). DeepSeek-V3 delivers over six times the baseline precision, GPT-4o achieves the highest F0.5, and most models surpass human benchmarks. Designed as a public and evolving resource available at vcbench.com, VCBench establishes a community-driven standard for reproducible and privacy-preserving evaluation of AGI in early-stage venture forecasting.