Sanjay P. Bhat

Sumedh Gupte, Prashanth L. A., Sanjay P. Bhat

We consider the problems of estimation and optimization of utility-based shortfall risk (UBSR), which is a popular risk measure in finance. In the context of UBSR estimation, we derive a non-asymptotic bound on the mean-squared error of the classical sample average approximation (SAA) of UBSR. Next, in the context of UBSR optimization, we derive an expression for the UBSR gradient under a smooth parameterization. This expression is a ratio of expectations, both of which involve the UBSR. We use SAA for the numerator as well as denominator in the UBSR gradient expression to arrive at a biased gradient estimator. We derive non-asymptotic bounds on the estimation error, which show that our gradient estimator is asymptotically unbiased. We incorporate the aforementioned gradient estimator into a stochastic gradient (SG) algorithm for UBSR optimization. Finally, we derive non-asymptotic bounds that quantify the rate of convergence of our SG algorithm for UBSR optimization.

Sumedh Gupte, Shrey Rakeshkumar Patel, Soumen Pachal et al.

We propose risk-sensitive reinforcement learning algorithms catering to three families of risk measures, namely expectiles, utility-based shortfall risk and optimized certainty equivalent risk. For each risk measure, in the context of a finite horizon Markov decision process, we first derive a policy gradient theorem. Second, we propose estimators of the risk-sensitive policy gradient for each of the aforementioned risk measures, and establish $\mathcal{O}\left(1/m\right)$ mean-squared error bounds for our estimators, where $m$ is the number of trajectories. Further, under standard assumptions for policy gradient-type algorithms, we establish smoothness of the risk-sensitive objective, in turn leading to stationary convergence rate bounds for the overall risk-sensitive policy gradient algorithm that we propose. Finally, we conduct numerical experiments to validate the theoretical findings on popular RL benchmarks.

Narendhar Gugulothu, Sanjay P. Bhat, Tejas Bodas

While mixture density networks (MDNs) have been extensively used for regression tasks, they have not been used much for classification tasks. One reason for this is that the usability of MDNs for classification is not clear and straightforward. In this paper, we propose two MDN-based models for classification tasks. Both models fit mixtures of Gaussians to the the data and use the fitted distributions to classify a given sample by evaluating the learnt cumulative distribution function for the given input features. While the proposed MDN-based models perform slightly better than, or on par with, five baseline classification models on three publicly available datasets, the real utility of our models comes out through a real-world product bundling application. Specifically, we use our MDN-based models to learn the willingness-to-pay (WTP) distributions for two products from synthetic sales data of the individual products. The Gaussian mixture representation of the learnt WTP distributions is then exploited to obtain the WTP distribution of the bundle consisting of both the products. The proposed MDN-based models are able to approximate the true WTP distributions of both products and the bundle well.

Ajay Kumar Pandey, Prashanth L. A., Sanjay P. Bhat

We consider the problem of estimating a spectral risk measure (SRM) from i.i.d. samples, and propose a novel method that is based on numerical integration. We show that our SRM estimate concentrates exponentially, when the underlying distribution has bounded support. Further, we also consider the case when the underlying distribution is either Gaussian or exponential, and derive a concentration bound for our estimation scheme. We validate the theoretical findings on a synthetic setup, and in a vehicular traffic routing application.

Prashanth L. A., Sanjay P. Bhat

This paper presents a unified approach based on Wasserstein distance to derive concentration bounds for empirical estimates for two broad classes of risk measures defined in the paper. The classes of risk measures introduced include as special cases well known risk measures from the finance literature such as conditional value at risk (CVaR), optimized certainty equivalent risk, spectral risk measures, utility-based shortfall risk, cumulative prospect theory (CPT) value, rank dependent expected utility and distorted risk measures. Two estimation schemes are considered, one for each class of risk measures. One estimation scheme involves applying the risk measure to the empirical distribution function formed from a collection of i.i.d. samples of the random variable (r.v.), while the second scheme involves applying the same procedure to a truncated sample. The bounds provided apply to three popular classes of distributions, namely sub-Gaussian, sub-exponential and heavy-tailed distributions. The bounds are derived by first relating the estimation error to the Wasserstein distance between the true and empirical distributions, and then using recent concentration bounds for the latter. Previous concentration bounds are available only for specific risk measures such as CVaR and CPT-value. The bounds derived in this paper are shown to either match or improve upon previous bounds in cases where they are available. The usefulness of the bounds is illustrated through an algorithm and the corresponding regret bound for a stochastic bandit problem involving a general risk measure from each of the two classes introduced in the paper.

Ravi Kumar Kolla, Prashanth L. A., Sanjay P. Bhat et al.

In several real-world applications involving decision making under uncertainty, the traditional expected value objective may not be suitable, as it may be necessary to control losses in the case of a rare but extreme event. Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a popular risk measure for modeling the aforementioned objective. We consider the problem of estimating CVaR from i.i.d. samples of an unbounded random variable, which is either sub-Gaussian or sub-exponential. We derive a novel one-sided concentration bound for a natural sample-based CVaR estimator in this setting. Our bound relies on a concentration result for a quantile-based estimator for Value-at-Risk (VaR), which may be of independent interest.