Gerhard Satzger

Joshua Holstein, Patrick Hemmer, Gerhard Satzger et al.

Collaboration with artificial intelligence (AI) has improved human decision-making across various domains by leveraging the complementary capabilities of humans and AI. Yet, humans systematically overrely on AI advice, even when their independent judgment would yield superior outcomes, fundamentally undermining the potential of human-AI complementarity. Building on prior work, we identify prevailing incentive structures in human-AI decision-making as a structural driver of this overreliance. To address this misalignment, we propose an alternative incentive mechanism designed to counteract systemic overreliance. We empirically evaluate this approach through a behavioral experiment with 180 participants, finding that the proposed mechanism significantly reduces overreliance. We also show that while appropriately designed incentives can enhance collaboration and decision quality, poorly designed incentives may distort behavior, introduce unintended consequences, and ultimately degrade performance. These findings underscore the importance of aligning incentives with task context and human-AI complementarities, and suggest that effective collaboration requires a shift toward context-sensitive incentive design.

Max Schemmer, Niklas Kühl, Carina Benz et al.

AI advice is becoming increasingly popular, e.g., in investment and medical treatment decisions. As this advice is typically imperfect, decision-makers have to exert discretion as to whether actually follow that advice: they have to "appropriately" rely on correct and turn down incorrect advice. However, current research on appropriate reliance still lacks a common definition as well as an operational measurement concept. Additionally, no in-depth behavioral experiments have been conducted that help understand the factors influencing this behavior. In this paper, we propose Appropriateness of Reliance (AoR) as an underlying, quantifiable two-dimensional measurement concept. We develop a research model that analyzes the effect of providing explanations for AI advice. In an experiment with 200 participants, we demonstrate how these explanations influence the AoR, and, thus, the effectiveness of AI advice. Our work contributes fundamental concepts for the analysis of reliance behavior and the purposeful design of AI advisors.

Johannes Jakubik, Michael Vössing, Niklas Kühl et al.

Data-centric artificial intelligence (data-centric AI) represents an emerging paradigm emphasizing that the systematic design and engineering of data is essential for building effective and efficient AI-based systems. The objective of this article is to introduce practitioners and researchers from the field of Information Systems (IS) to data-centric AI. We define relevant terms, provide key characteristics to contrast the data-centric paradigm to the model-centric one, and introduce a framework for data-centric AI. We distinguish data-centric AI from related concepts and discuss its longer-term implications for the IS community.

Patrick Hemmer, Monika Westphal, Max Schemmer et al.

Recent work has proposed artificial intelligence (AI) models that can learn to decide whether to make a prediction for an instance of a task or to delegate it to a human by considering both parties' capabilities. In simulations with synthetically generated or context-independent human predictions, delegation can help improve the performance of human-AI teams -- compared to humans or the AI model completing the task alone. However, so far, it remains unclear how humans perform and how they perceive the task when they are aware that an AI model delegated task instances to them. In an experimental study with 196 participants, we show that task performance and task satisfaction improve through AI delegation, regardless of whether humans are aware of the delegation. Additionally, we identify humans' increased levels of self-efficacy as the underlying mechanism for these improvements in performance and satisfaction. Our findings provide initial evidence that allowing AI models to take over more management responsibilities can be an effective form of human-AI collaboration in workplaces.

Max Schemmer, Patrick Hemmer, Niklas Kühl et al.

Many important decisions in daily life are made with the help of advisors, e.g., decisions about medical treatments or financial investments. Whereas in the past, advice has often been received from human experts, friends, or family, advisors based on artificial intelligence (AI) have become more and more present nowadays. Typically, the advice generated by AI is judged by a human and either deemed reliable or rejected. However, recent work has shown that AI advice is not always beneficial, as humans have shown to be unable to ignore incorrect AI advice, essentially representing an over-reliance on AI. Therefore, the aspired goal should be to enable humans not to rely on AI advice blindly but rather to distinguish its quality and act upon it to make better decisions. Specifically, that means that humans should rely on the AI in the presence of correct advice and self-rely when confronted with incorrect advice, i.e., establish appropriate reliance (AR) on AI advice on a case-by-case basis. Current research lacks a metric for AR. This prevents a rigorous evaluation of factors impacting AR and hinders further development of human-AI decision-making. Therefore, based on the literature, we derive a measurement concept of AR. We propose to view AR as a two-dimensional construct that measures the ability to discriminate advice quality and behave accordingly. In this article, we derive the measurement concept, illustrate its application and outline potential future research.

Patrick Hemmer, Sebastian Schellhammer, Michael Vössing et al.

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being used in application domains that often involve working together with human experts. In this context, it can be advantageous to defer certain instances to a single human expert when they are difficult to predict for the ML model. While previous work has focused on scenarios with one distinct human expert, in many real-world situations several human experts with varying capabilities may be available. In this work, we propose an approach that trains a classification model to complement the capabilities of multiple human experts. By jointly training the classifier together with an allocation system, the classifier learns to accurately predict those instances that are difficult for the human experts, while the allocation system learns to pass each instance to the most suitable team member -- either the classifier or one of the human experts. We evaluate our proposed approach in multiple experiments on public datasets with "synthetic" experts and a real-world medical dataset annotated by multiple radiologists. Our approach outperforms prior work and is more accurate than the best human expert or a classifier. Furthermore, it is flexibly adaptable to teams of varying sizes and different levels of expert diversity.

Max Schemmer, Niklas Kühl, Carina Benz et al.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is gaining momentum, and its importance for the future of work in many areas, such as medicine and banking, is continuously rising. However, insights on the effective collaboration of humans and AI are still rare. Typically, AI supports humans in decision-making by addressing human limitations. However, it may also evoke human bias, especially in the form of automation bias as an over-reliance on AI advice. We aim to shed light on the potential to influence automation bias by explainable AI (XAI). In this pre-test, we derive a research model and describe our study design. Subsequentially, we conduct an online experiment with regard to hotel review classifications and discuss first results. We expect our research to contribute to the design and development of safe hybrid intelligence systems.

Patrick Hemmer, Max Schemmer, Niklas Kühl et al.

Over the last years, the rising capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) have improved human decision-making in many application areas. Teaming between AI and humans may even lead to complementary team performance (CTP), i.e., a level of performance beyond the ones that can be reached by AI or humans individually. Many researchers have proposed using explainable AI (XAI) to enable humans to rely on AI advice appropriately and thereby reach CTP. However, CTP is rarely demonstrated in previous work as often the focus is on the design of explainability, while a fundamental prerequisite -- the presence of complementarity potential between humans and AI -- is often neglected. Therefore, we focus on the existence of this potential for effective human-AI decision-making. Specifically, we identify information asymmetry as an essential source of complementarity potential, as in many real-world situations, humans have access to different contextual information. By conducting an online experiment, we demonstrate that humans can use such contextual information to adjust the AI's decision, finally resulting in CTP.

Jakob Schoeffer, Johannes Jakubik, Michael Voessing et al.

In AI-assisted decision-making, a central promise of having a human-in-the-loop is that they should be able to complement the AI system by overriding its wrong recommendations. In practice, however, we often see that humans cannot assess the correctness of AI recommendations and, as a result, adhere to wrong or override correct advice. Different ways of relying on AI recommendations have immediate, yet distinct, implications for decision quality. Unfortunately, reliance and decision quality are often inappropriately conflated in the current literature on AI-assisted decision-making. In this work, we disentangle and formalize the relationship between reliance and decision quality, and we characterize the conditions under which human-AI complementarity is achievable. To illustrate how reliance and decision quality relate to one another, we propose a visual framework and demonstrate its usefulness for interpreting empirical findings, including the effects of interventions like explanations. Overall, our research highlights the importance of distinguishing between reliance behavior and decision quality in AI-assisted decision-making.

Max Schemmer, Andrea Bartos, Philipp Spitzer et al.

The true potential of human-AI collaboration lies in exploiting the complementary capabilities of humans and AI to achieve a joint performance superior to that of the individual AI or human, i.e., to achieve complementary team performance (CTP). To realize this complementarity potential, humans need to exercise discretion in following AI 's advice, i.e., appropriately relying on the AI's advice. While previous work has focused on building a mental model of the AI to assess AI recommendations, recent research has shown that the mental model alone cannot explain appropriate reliance. We hypothesize that, in addition to the mental model, human learning is a key mediator of appropriate reliance and, thus, CTP. In this study, we demonstrate the relationship between learning and appropriate reliance in an experiment with 100 participants. This work provides fundamental concepts for analyzing reliance and derives implications for the effective design of human-AI decision-making.

Philipp Spitzer, Joshua Holstein, Katelyn Morrison et al.

Across various applications, humans increasingly use black-box artificial intelligence (AI) systems without insight into these systems' reasoning. To counter this opacity, explainable AI (XAI) methods promise enhanced transparency and interpretability. While recent studies have explored how XAI affects human-AI collaboration, few have examined the potential pitfalls caused by incorrect explanations. The implications for humans can be far-reaching but have not been explored extensively. To investigate this, we ran a study (n=160) on AI-assisted decision-making in which humans were supported by XAI. Our findings reveal a misinformation effect when incorrect explanations accompany correct AI advice with implications post-collaboration. This effect causes humans to infer flawed reasoning strategies, hindering task execution and demonstrating impaired procedural knowledge. Additionally, incorrect explanations compromise human-AI team-performance during collaboration. With our work, we contribute to HCI by providing empirical evidence for the negative consequences of incorrect explanations on humans post-collaboration and outlining guidelines for designers of AI.

Johannes Jakubik, Daniel Weber, Patrick Hemmer et al.

Information systems increasingly leverage artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to generate value from vast amounts of data. However, ML models are imperfect and can generate incorrect classifications. Hence, human-in-the-loop (HITL) extensions to ML models add a human review for instances that are difficult to classify. This study argues that continuously relying on human experts to handle difficult model classifications leads to a strong increase in human effort, which strains limited resources. To address this issue, we propose a hybrid system that creates artificial experts that learn to classify data instances from unknown classes previously reviewed by human experts. Our hybrid system assesses which artificial expert is suitable for classifying an instance from an unknown class and automatically assigns it. Over time, this reduces human effort and increases the efficiency of the system. Our experiments demonstrate that our approach outperforms traditional HITL systems for several benchmarks on image classification.

Robin Hirt, Niklas Kühl, Dominik Martin et al.

Successful analytics solutions that provide valuable insights often hinge on the connection of various data sources. While it is often feasible to generate larger data pools within organizations, the application of analytics within (inter-organizational) business networks is still severely constrained. As data is distributed across several legal units, potentially even across countries, the fear of disclosing sensitive information as well as the sheer volume of the data that would need to be exchanged are key inhibitors for the creation of effective system-wide solutions -- all while still reaching superior prediction performance. In this work, we propose a meta machine learning method that deals with these obstacles to enable comprehensive analyses within a business network. We follow a design science research approach and evaluate our method with respect to feasibility and performance in an industrial use case. First, we show that it is feasible to perform network-wide analyses that preserve data confidentiality as well as limit data transfer volume. Second, we demonstrate that our method outperforms a conventional isolated analysis and even gets close to a (hypothetical) scenario where all data could be shared within the network. Thus, we provide a fundamental contribution for making business networks more effective, as we remove a key obstacle to tap the huge potential of learning from data that is scattered throughout the network.

Moussa Kassem Sbeyti, Joshua Holstein, Philipp Spitzer et al.

High-quality labeled data is essential for training robust machine learning models, yet obtaining annotations at scale remains expensive. AI-assisted annotation has therefore become standard in large-scale labeling workflows. However, in tasks where model predictions carry two independent components, a class label and spatial boundaries, a model may classify an object with high confidence while mislocalizing it. Existing AI-assisted workflows offer annotators no signal about where spatial errors are most likely. Without such guidance, humans may systematically underinspect subtly misplaced boxes. We address this by studying the effect of visualizing spatial uncertainty via a purpose-built interface. In a controlled study with 120 participants, those receiving uncertainty cues achieve higher label quality while being faster overall. A box-level analysis confirms that the cues redirect annotator effort toward high-uncertainty predictions and away from well-localized boxes. These findings establish localization uncertainty as a lever to improve human-in-the-loop annotation. Code is available at https://mos-ks.github.io/MUHA/.

Max Schemmer, Joshua Holstein, Niklas Bauer et al.

Detecting rare events is essential in various fields, e.g., in cyber security or maintenance. Often, human experts are supported by anomaly detection systems as continuously monitoring the data is an error-prone and tedious task. However, among the anomalies detected may be events that are rare, e.g., a planned shutdown of a machine, but are not the actual event of interest, e.g., breakdowns of a machine. Therefore, human experts are needed to validate whether the detected anomalies are relevant. We propose to support this anomaly investigation by providing explanations of anomaly detection. Related work only focuses on the technical implementation of explainable anomaly detection and neglects the subsequent human anomaly investigation. To address this research gap, we conduct a behavioral experiment using records of taxi rides in New York City as a testbed. Participants are asked to differentiate extreme weather events from other anomalous events such as holidays or sporting events. Our results show that providing counterfactual explanations do improve the investigation of anomalies, indicating potential for explainable anomaly detection in general.

Arne Grobrügge, Niklas Kühl, Gerhard Satzger et al.

Concept-based eXplainable AI (C-XAI) aims to overcome the limitations of traditional saliency maps by converting pixels into human-understandable concepts that are consistent across an entire dataset. A crucial aspect of C-XAI is completeness, which measures how well a set of concepts explains a model's decisions. Among C-XAI methods, Multi-Dimensional Concept Discovery (MCD) effectively improves completeness by breaking down the CNN latent space into distinct and interpretable concept subspaces. However, MCD's explanations can be difficult for humans to understand, raising concerns about their practical utility. To address this, we propose Human-Understandable Multi-dimensional Concept Discovery (HU-MCD). HU-MCD uses the Segment Anything Model for concept identification and implements a CNN-specific input masking technique to reduce noise introduced by traditional masking methods. These changes to MCD, paired with the completeness relation, enable HU-MCD to enhance concept understandability while maintaining explanation faithfulness. Our experiments, including human subject studies, show that HU-MCD provides more precise and reliable explanations than existing C-XAI methods. The code is available at https://github.com/grobruegge/hu-mcd.

Patrick Hemmer, Max Schemmer, Niklas Kühl et al.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to significantly enhance human performance across various domains. Ideally, collaboration between humans and AI should result in complementary team performance (CTP) -- a level of performance that neither of them can attain individually. So far, however, CTP has rarely been observed, suggesting an insufficient understanding of the principle and the application of complementarity. Therefore, we develop a general concept of complementarity and formalize its theoretical potential as well as the actual realized effect in decision-making situations. Moreover, we identify information and capability asymmetry as the two key sources of complementarity. Finally, we illustrate the impact of each source on complementarity potential and effect in two empirical studies. Our work provides researchers with a comprehensive theoretical foundation of human-AI complementarity in decision-making and demonstrates that leveraging these sources constitutes a viable pathway towards designing effective human-AI collaboration, i.e., the realization of CTP.

Philipp Spitzer, Joshua Holstein, Patrick Hemmer et al.

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into human decision-making processes at the workplace presents both opportunities and challenges. One promising approach to leverage existing complementary capabilities is allowing humans to delegate individual instances of decision tasks to AI. However, enabling humans to delegate instances effectively requires them to assess several factors. One key factor is the analysis of both their own capabilities and those of the AI in the context of the given task. In this work, we conduct a behavioral study to explore the effects of providing contextual information to support this delegation decision. Specifically, we investigate how contextual information about the AI and the task domain influence humans' delegation decisions to an AI and their impact on the human-AI team performance. Our findings reveal that access to contextual information significantly improves human-AI team performance in delegation settings. Finally, we show that the delegation behavior changes with the different types of contextual information. Overall, this research advances the understanding of computer-supported, collaborative work and provides actionable insights for designing more effective collaborative systems.

Arne Grobrugge, Nidhi Mishra, Johannes Jakubik et al.

The integration of artificial intelligence into business processes has significantly enhanced decision-making capabilities across various industries such as finance, healthcare, and retail. However, explaining the decisions made by these AI systems poses a significant challenge due to the opaque nature of recent deep learning models, which typically function as black boxes. To address this opacity, a multitude of explainability techniques have emerged. However, in practical business applications, the challenge lies in selecting an appropriate explainability method that balances comprehensibility with accuracy. This paper addresses the practical need of understanding differences in the output of explainability techniques by proposing a novel method for the assessment of the agreement of different explainability techniques. Based on our proposed methods, we provide a comprehensive comparative analysis of six leading explainability techniques to help guiding the selection of such techniques in practice. Our proposed general-purpose method is evaluated on top of one of the most popular deep learning architectures, the Vision Transformer model, which is frequently employed in business applications. Notably, we propose a novel metric to measure the agreement of explainability techniques that can be interpreted visually. By providing a practical framework for understanding the agreement of diverse explainability techniques, our research aims to facilitate the broader integration of interpretable AI systems in business applications.

Daniel Hendriks, Philipp Spitzer, Niklas Kühl et al.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has increasingly influenced modern society, recently in particular through significant advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs). However, high computational and storage demands of LLMs still limit their deployment in resource-constrained environments. Knowledge distillation addresses this challenge by training a small student model from a larger teacher model. Previous research has introduced several distillation methods for both generating training data and for training the student model. Despite their relevance, the effects of state-of-the-art distillation methods on model performance and explainability have not been thoroughly investigated and compared. In this work, we enlarge the set of available methods by applying critique-revision prompting to distillation for data generation and by synthesizing existing methods for training. For these methods, we provide a systematic comparison based on the widely used Commonsense Question-Answering (CQA) dataset. While we measure performance via student model accuracy, we employ a human-grounded study to evaluate explainability. We contribute new distillation methods and their comparison in terms of both performance and explainability. This should further advance the distillation of small language models and, thus, contribute to broader applicability and faster diffusion of LLM technology.

Johannes Jakubik, Michael Vössing, Manil Maskey et al.

Identifying and handling label errors can significantly enhance the accuracy of supervised machine learning models. Recent approaches for identifying label errors demonstrate that a low self-confidence of models with respect to a certain label represents a good indicator of an erroneous label. However, latest work has built on softmax probabilities to measure self-confidence. In this paper, we argue that -- as softmax probabilities do not reflect a model's predictive uncertainty accurately -- label error detection requires more sophisticated measures of model uncertainty. Therefore, we develop a range of novel, model-agnostic algorithms for Uncertainty Quantification-Based Label Error Detection (UQ-LED), which combine the techniques of confident learning (CL), Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), model uncertainty measures (e.g., entropy), and ensemble learning to enhance label error detection. We comprehensively evaluate our algorithms on four image classification benchmark datasets in two stages. In the first stage, we demonstrate that our UQ-LED algorithms outperform state-of-the-art confident learning in identifying label errors. In the second stage, we show that removing all identified errors from the training data based on our approach results in higher accuracies than training on all available labeled data. Importantly, besides our contributions to the detection of label errors, we particularly propose a novel approach to generate realistic, class-dependent label errors synthetically. Overall, our study demonstrates that selectively cleaning datasets with UQ-LED algorithms leads to more accurate classifications than using larger, noisier datasets.

Joshua Holstein, Gerhard Satzger

Artificial intelligence has become integral to organizational decision-making and while research has explored many facets of this human-AI collaboration, the focus has mainly been on designing the AI agent(s) and the way the collaboration is set up - generally assuming a human decision-maker to be "fixed". However, it has largely been neglected that decision-makers' mental models evolve through their continuous interaction with AI systems. This paper addresses this gap by conceptualizing how the design of human-AI collaboration influences the development of three complementary and interdependent mental models necessary for this collaboration. We develop an integrated socio-technical framework that identifies the mechanisms driving the mental model evolution: data contextualization, reasoning transparency, and performance feedback. Our work advances human-AI collaboration literature through three key contributions: introducing three distinct mental models (domain, information processing, complementarity-awareness); recognizing the dynamic nature of mental models; and establishing mechanisms that guide the purposeful design of effective human-AI collaboration.

Leopold Müller, Joshua Holstein, Sarah Bause et al.

Organizations increasingly adopt Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) to enhance Large Language Models with enterprise-specific knowledge. However, current data quality (DQ) frameworks have been primarily developed for static datasets, and only inadequately address the dynamic, multi-stage nature of RAG systems. This study aims to develop DQ dimensions for this new type of AI-based systems. We conduct 16 semi-structured interviews with practitioners of leading IT service companies. Through a qualitative content analysis, we inductively derive 15 distinct DQ dimensions across the four processing stages of RAG systems: data extraction, data transformation, prompt & search, and generation. Our findings reveal that (1) new dimensions have to be added to traditional DQ frameworks to also cover RAG contexts; (2) these new dimensions are concentrated in early RAG steps, suggesting the need for front-loaded quality management strategies, and (3) DQ issues transform and propagate through the RAG pipeline, necessitating a dynamic, step-aware approach to quality management.

Philipp Spitzer, Niklas Kühl, Marc Goutier et al.

In numerous high-stakes domains, training novices via conventional learning systems does not suffice. To impart tacit knowledge, experts' hands-on guidance is imperative. However, training novices by experts is costly and time-consuming, increasing the need for alternatives. Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has conventionally been used to make black-box artificial intelligence systems interpretable. In this work, we utilize XAI as an alternative: An (X)AI system is trained on experts' past decisions and is then employed to teach novices by providing examples coupled with explanations. In a study with 249 participants, we measure the effectiveness of such an approach for a classification task. We show that (X)AI-based learning systems are able to induce learning in novices and that their cognitive styles moderate learning. Thus, we take the first steps to reveal the impact of XAI on human learning and point AI developers to future options to tailor the design of (X)AI-based learning systems.

Philipp Spitzer, Niklas Kühl, Daniel Heinz et al.

As the shortage of skilled workers continues to be a pressing issue, exacerbated by demographic change, it is becoming a critical challenge for organizations to preserve the knowledge of retiring experts and to pass it on to novices. While this knowledge transfer has traditionally taken place through personal interaction, it lacks scalability and requires significant resources and time. IT-based teaching systems have addressed this scalability issue, but their development is still tedious and time-consuming. In this work, we investigate the potential of machine learning (ML) models to facilitate knowledge transfer in an organizational context, leading to more cost-effective IT-based teaching systems. Through a systematic literature review, we examine key concepts, themes, and dimensions to better understand and design ML-based teaching systems. To do so, we capture and consolidate the capabilities of ML models in IT-based teaching systems, inductively analyze relevant concepts in this context, and determine their interrelationships. We present our findings in the form of a review of the key concepts, themes, and dimensions to understand and inform on ML-based teaching systems. Building on these results, our work contributes to research on computer-supported cooperative work by conceptualizing how ML-based teaching systems can preserve expert knowledge and facilitate its transfer from SMEs to human novices. In this way, we shed light on this emerging subfield of human-computer interaction and serve to build an interdisciplinary research agenda.

Max Schemmer, Niklas Kühl, Gerhard Satzger

While recent advances in AI-based automated decision-making have shown many benefits for businesses and society, they also come at a cost. It has for long been known that a high level of automation of decisions can lead to various drawbacks, such as automation bias and deskilling. In particular, the deskilling of knowledge workers is a major issue, as they are the same people who should also train, challenge and evolve AI. To address this issue, we conceptualize a new class of DSS, namely Intelligent Decision Assistance (IDA) based on a literature review of two different research streams -- DSS and automation. IDA supports knowledge workers without influencing them through automated decision-making. Specifically, we propose to use techniques of Explainable AI (XAI) while withholding concrete AI recommendations. To test this conceptualization, we develop hypotheses on the impacts of IDA and provide first evidence for their validity based on empirical studies in the literature.

Niklas Kühl, Gerhard Satzger

Today's businesses face a high pressure to innovate in order to succeed in highly competitive markets. Successful innovations, though, typically require the identification and analysis of customer needs. While traditional, established need elicitation methods are time-proven and have demonstrated their capabilities to deliver valuable insights, they lack automation and scalability and, thus, are expensive and time-consuming. In this article, we propose an approach to automatically identify and quantify customer needs by utilizing a novel data source: Users voluntarily and publicly expose information about themselves via social media, as for instance Facebook or Twitter. These posts may contain valuable information about the needs, wants, and demands of their authors. We apply a Design Science Research (DSR) methodology to add design knowledge and artifacts for the digitalization of innovation processes, in particular to provide digital support for the elicitation of customer needs. We want to investigate whether automated, speedy, and scalable need elicitation from social media is feasible. We concentrate on Twitter as a data source and on e-mobility as an application domain. In a first design cycle we conceive, implement and evaluate a method to demonstrate the feasibility of identifying those social media posts that actually express customer needs. In a second cycle, we build on this artifact to additionally quantify the need information elicited, and prove its feasibility. Third, we integrate both developed methods into an end-user software artifact and test usability in an industrial use case. Thus, we add new methods for need elicitation to the body of knowledge, and introduce concrete tooling for innovation management in practice.

Lucas Baier, Niklas Kühl, Jakob Schöffer et al.

As a reaction to the high infectiousness and lethality of the COVID-19 virus, countries around the world have adopted drastic policy measures to contain the pandemic. However, it remains unclear which effect these measures, so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), have on the spread of the virus. In this article, we use machine learning and apply drift detection methods in a novel way to predict the time lag of policy interventions with respect to the development of daily case numbers of COVID-19 across 9 European countries and 28 US states. Our analysis shows that there are, on average, more than two weeks between NPI enactment and a drift in the case numbers.

Lucas Baier, Vincent Kellner, Niklas Kühl et al.

Machine learning models nowadays play a crucial role for many applications in business and industry. However, models only start adding value as soon as they are deployed into production. One challenge of deployed models is the effect of changing data over time, which is often described with the term concept drift. Due to their nature, concept drifts can severely affect the prediction performance of a machine learning system. In this work, we analyze the effects of concept drift in the context of a real-world data set. For efficient concept drift handling, we introduce the switching scheme which combines the two principles of retraining and updating of a machine learning model. Furthermore, we systematically analyze existing regular adaptation as well as triggered adaptation strategies. The switching scheme is instantiated on New York City taxi data, which is heavily influenced by changing demand patterns over time. We can show that the switching scheme outperforms all other baselines and delivers promising prediction results.

Robin Hirt, Niklas Kühl, Yusuf Peker et al.

In a variety of business situations, the introduction or improvement of machine learning approaches is impaired as these cannot draw on existing analytical models. However, in many cases similar problems may have already been solved elsewhere-but the accumulated analytical knowledge cannot be tapped to solve a new problem, e.g., because of privacy barriers. For the particular purpose of sales forecasting for similar entities, we propose a transfer machine learning approach based on additive regression models that lets new entities benefit from models of existing entities. We evaluate the approach on a rich, multi-year dataset of multiple restaurant branches. We differentiate the options to simply transfer models from one branch to another ("zero shot") or to transfer and adapt them. We analyze feasibility and performance against several forecasting benchmarks. The results show the potential of the approach to exploit the collectively available analytical knowledge. Thus, we contribute an approach that is generalizable beyond sales forecasting and the specific use case in particular. In addition, we demonstrate its feasibility for a typical use case as well as the potential for improving forecasting quality. These results should inform academia, as they help to leverage knowledge across various entities, and have immediate practical application in industry.

Lucas Baier, Marcel Hofmann, Niklas Kühl et al.

Machine learning models are omnipresent for predictions on big data. One challenge of deployed models is the change of the data over time, a phenomenon called concept drift. If not handled correctly, a concept drift can lead to significant mispredictions. We explore a novel approach for concept drift handling, which depicts a strategy to switch between the application of simple and complex machine learning models for regression tasks. We assume that the approach plays out the individual strengths of each model, switching to the simpler model if a drift occurs and switching back to the complex model for typical situations. We instantiate the approach on a real-world data set of taxi demand in New York City, which is prone to multiple drifts, e.g. the weather phenomena of blizzards, resulting in a sudden decrease of taxi demand. We are able to show that our suggested approach outperforms all regarded baselines significantly.

Niklas Kühl, Marc Goutier, Robin Hirt et al.

The application of "machine learning" and "artificial intelligence" has become popular within the last decade. Both terms are frequently used in science and media, sometimes interchangeably, sometimes with different meanings. In this work, we aim to clarify the relationship between these terms and, in particular, to specify the contribution of machine learning to artificial intelligence. We review relevant literature and present a conceptual framework which clarifies the role of machine learning to build (artificial) intelligent agents. Hence, we seek to provide more terminological clarity and a starting point for (interdisciplinary) discussions and future research.

Niklas Kühl, Jan Scheurenbrand, Gerhard Satzger

The design of new products and services starts with the identification of needs of potential customers or users. Many existing methods like observations, surveys, and experiments draw upon specific efforts to elicit unsatisfied needs from individuals. At the same time, a huge amount of user-generated content in micro blogs is freely accessible at no cost. While this information is already analyzed to monitor sentiments towards existing offerings, it has not yet been tapped for the elicitation of needs. In this paper, we lay an important foundation for this endeavor: we propose a Machine Learning approach to identify those posts that do express needs. Our evaluation of tweets in the e-mobility domain demonstrates that the small share of relevant tweets can be identified with remarkable precision or recall results. Applied to huge data sets, the developed method should enable scalable need elicitation support for innovation managers - across thousands of users, and thus augment the service design tool set available to him.