Murray Ireland

Richard Hawkins, Chiara Picardi, Lucy Donnell et al.

Wildfires are a common problem in many areas of the world with often catastrophic consequences. A number of systems have been created to provide early warnings of wildfires, including those that use satellite data to detect fires. The increased availability of small satellites, such as CubeSats, allows the wildfire detection response time to be reduced by deploying constellations of multiple satellites over regions of interest. By using machine learned components on-board the satellites, constraints which limit the amount of data that can be processed and sent back to ground stations can be overcome. There are hazards associated with wildfire alert systems, such as failing to detect the presence of a wildfire, or detecting a wildfire in the incorrect location. It is therefore necessary to be able to create a safety assurance case for the wildfire alert ML component that demonstrates it is sufficiently safe for use. This paper describes in detail how a safety assurance case for an ML wildfire alert system is created. This represents the first fully developed safety case for an ML component containing explicit argument and evidence as to the safety of the machine learning.

Murray L. Ireland, Ruth Hoffmann, Alice Miller et al.

If autonomous vehicles are to be widely accepted, we need to ensure their safe operation. For this reason, verification and validation (V&V) approaches must be developed that are suitable for this domain. Model checking is a formal technique which allows us to exhaustively explore the paths of an abstract model of a system. Using a probabilistic model checker such as PRISM, we may determine properties such as the expected time for a mission, or the probability that a specific mission failure occurs. However, model checking of complex systems is difficult due to the loss of information during abstraction. This is especially so when considering systems such as autonomous vehicles which are subject to external influences. An alternative solution is the use of Monte Carlo simulation to explore the results of a continuous-time model of the system. The main disadvantage of this approach is that the approach is not exhaustive as not all executions of the system are analysed. We are therefore interested in developing a framework for formal verification of autonomous vehicles, using Monte Carlo simulation to inform and validate our symbolic models during the initial stages of development. In this paper, we present a continuous-time model of a quadrotor unmanned aircraft undertaking an autonomous mission. We employ this model in Monte Carlo simulation to obtain specific mission properties which will inform the symbolic models employed in formal verification.

Ruth Hoffmann, Murray Ireland, Alice Miller et al.

Formal verification of agents representing robot behaviour is a growing area due to the demand that autonomous systems have to be proven safe. In this paper we present an abstract definition of autonomy which can be used to model autonomous scenarios and propose the use of small-scale simulation models representing abstract actions to infer quantitative data. To demonstrate the applicability of the approach we build and verify a model of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in an exemplary autonomous scenario, utilising this approach.