Irene Iele

Irene Iele, Giulia Romoli, Daniele Molino et al.

Short-term forecasting of vegetation dynamics is a key enabler for data-driven decision support in precision agriculture. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) forecasting from satellite observations, however, remains challenging due to sparse and irregular sampling caused by cloud masking, as well as the heterogeneous climatic conditions under which crops evolve. In this work, we propose a probabilistic forecasting framework for field-level NDVI prediction under sparse, irregular clear-sky acquisitions. The architecture separates the encoding of historical NDVI and meteorological observations from future exogenous covariates, fusing both representations for multi-step quantile prediction. To address irregular revisit patterns and horizon-dependent uncertainty, we introduce a temporal-distance weighted quantile loss that aligns the training objective with the effective forecasting horizon. In addition, we incorporate cumulative and extreme-weather feature engineering to capture delayed meteorological effects relevant to vegetation response. Experiments on European satellite data show that the proposed approach outperforms statistical, deep learning, and time-series baselines on both pointwise and probabilistic evaluation metrics. Ablation studies confirm that target history is the primary driver of performance, with meteorological covariates providing additional gains in the full multimodal setting. The code is available at https://github.com/arco-group/ndvi-forecasting.

Irene Iele, Elena Mulero Ayllón, Paolo Soda et al.

Vegetation monitoring under climate stress requires answering not only how it will evolve given the expected weather, but how it would respond to alternative meteorological conditions. Forecasting models return the expected vegetation state for the observed weather and cannot answer these scenario-conditioned questions, because future weather is fixed to the recorded trajectory. We present VegSim, a geospatial world model for scenario-conditioned vegetation simulation. VegSim infers a latent vegetation state from sparse satellite-derived NDVI histories, past meteorological covariates, and static spatial context, propagates it forward under future weather forcing through recurrent latent dynamics, and decodes predictive NDVI quantiles at each lead time. Because future forcing enters as a controllable input, the same trained model supports probabilistic forecasting under observed weather and conditional simulation under user-defined meteorological forcing, without supervision on scenario responses. We evaluate VegSim on GreenEarthNet across in-distribution data and spatial, temporal, and joint spatial-temporal shift, where it achieves strong point and probabilistic accuracy against time series and Earth observation forecasting baselines while using a compact architecture. We then simulate vegetation responses across Europe under four meteorological scenarios, and in a France summer 2022 case study, obtaining spatially coherent patterns consistent with known sensitivity to temperature and precipitation. The code is available at https://github.com/arco-group/vegsim.

Irene Iele, Francesco Di Feola, Valerio Guarrasi et al.

Image-to-image translation has emerged as a powerful technique in medical imaging, enabling tasks such as image denoising and cross-modality conversion. However, it suffers from limitations in handling out-of-distribution samples without causing performance degradation. To address this limitation, we propose a novel Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) framework that dynamically adjusts the translation process based on the characteristics of each test sample. Our method introduces a Reconstruction Module to quantify the domain shift and a Dynamic Adaptation Block that selectively modifies the internal features of a pretrained translation model to mitigate the shift without compromising the performance on in-distribution samples that do not require adaptation. We evaluate our approach on two medical image-to-image translation tasks: low-dose CT denoising and T1 to T2 MRI translation, showing consistent improvements over both the baseline translation model without TTA and prior TTA methods. Our analysis highlights the limitations of the state-of-the-art that uniformly apply the adaptation to both out-of-distribution and in-distribution samples, demonstrating that dynamic, sample-specific adjustment offers a promising path to improve model resilience in real-world scenarios. The code is available at: https://github.com/Sample-Aware-TTA/Code.