Rajat Vadiraj Dwaraknath

Rajat Vadiraj Dwaraknath, Lexing Ying

Metric graphs are structures obtained by associating edges in a standard graph with segments of the real line and gluing these segments at the vertices of the graph. The resulting structure has a natural metric that allows for the study of differential operators and stochastic processes on the graph. Brownian motions in these domains have been extensively studied theoretically using their generators. However, less work has been done on practical algorithms for simulating these processes. We introduce the first algorithm for simulating Brownian motions on metric graphs through a timestep splitting Euler-Maruyama-based discretization of their corresponding stochastic differential equation. By applying this scheme to Langevin diffusions on metric graphs, we also obtain the first algorithm for sampling on metric graphs. We provide theoretical guarantees on the number of timestep splittings required for the algorithm to converge to the underlying stochastic process. We also show that the exit probabilities of the simulated particle converge to the vertex-edge jump probabilities of the underlying stochastic differential equation as the timestep goes to zero. Finally, since this method is highly parallelizable, we provide fast, memory-aware implementations of our algorithm in the form of custom CUDA kernels that are up to ~8000x faster than a GPU implementation using PyTorch on simple star metric graphs. Beyond simple star graphs, we benchmark our algorithm on a real cortical vascular network extracted from a DuMuX tissue-perfusion model for tracer transport. Our algorithm is able to run stable simulations with timesteps significantly larger than the stable limit of the finite volume method used in DuMuX while also achieving speedups of up to ~1500x.

Elliot L. Epstein, John Winnicki, Thanawat Sornwanee et al.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at numerical estimation but struggle to correctly quantify uncertainty. We study how well LLMs construct confidence intervals around their own answers and find that they are systematically overconfident. To evaluate this behavior, we introduce FermiEval, a benchmark of Fermi-style estimation questions with a rigorous scoring rule for confidence interval coverage and sharpness. Across several modern models, nominal 99\% intervals cover the true answer only 65\% of the time on average. With a conformal prediction based approach that adjusts the intervals, we obtain accurate 99\% observed coverage, and the Winkler interval score decreases by 54\%. We also propose direct log-probability elicitation and quantile adjustment methods, which further reduce overconfidence at high confidence levels. Finally, we develop a perception-tunnel theory explaining why LLMs exhibit overconfidence: when reasoning under uncertainty, they act as if sampling from a truncated region of their inferred distribution, neglecting its tails.