Daniel Bean

Zeljko Kraljevic, Dan Bean, Anthony Shek et al.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

Zeljko Kraljevic, Joshua Au Yeung, Daniel Bean et al.

Foresight 2 (FS2) is a large language model fine-tuned on hospital data for modelling patient timelines (GitHub 'removed for anon'). It can understand patients' clinical notes and predict SNOMED codes for a wide range of biomedical use cases, including diagnosis suggestions, risk forecasting, and procedure and medication recommendations. FS2 is trained on the free text portion of the MIMIC-III dataset, firstly through extracting biomedical concepts and then creating contextualised patient timelines, upon which the model is then fine-tuned. The results show significant improvement over the previous state-of-the-art for the next new biomedical concept prediction (P/R - 0.73/0.66 vs 0.52/0.32) and a similar improvement specifically for the next new disorder prediction (P/R - 0.69/0.62 vs 0.46/0.25). Finally, on the task of risk forecast, we compare our model to GPT-4-turbo (and a range of open-source biomedical LLMs) and show that FS2 performs significantly better on such tasks (P@5 - 0.90 vs 0.65). This highlights the need to incorporate hospital data into LLMs and shows that small models outperform much larger ones when fine-tuned on high-quality, specialised data.

Zeljko Kraljevic, Thomas Searle, Anthony Shek et al.

Electronic health records (EHR) contain large volumes of unstructured text, requiring the application of Information Extraction (IE) technologies to enable clinical analysis. We present the open-source Medical Concept Annotation Toolkit (MedCAT) that provides: a) a novel self-supervised machine learning algorithm for extracting concepts using any concept vocabulary including UMLS/SNOMED-CT; b) a feature-rich annotation interface for customising and training IE models; and c) integrations to the broader CogStack ecosystem for vendor-agnostic health system deployment. We show improved performance in extracting UMLS concepts from open datasets (F1:0.448-0.738 vs 0.429-0.650). Further real-world validation demonstrates SNOMED-CT extraction at 3 large London hospitals with self-supervised training over ~8.8B words from ~17M clinical records and further fine-tuning with ~6K clinician annotated examples. We show strong transferability (F1 > 0.94) between hospitals, datasets, and concept types indicating cross-domain EHR-agnostic utility for accelerated clinical and research use cases.

Zeljko Kraljevic, Daniel Bean, Aurelie Mascio et al.

Biomedical documents such as Electronic Health Records (EHRs) contain a large amount of information in an unstructured format. The data in EHRs is a hugely valuable resource documenting clinical narratives and decisions, but whilst the text can be easily understood by human doctors it is challenging to use in research and clinical applications. To uncover the potential of biomedical documents we need to extract and structure the information they contain. The task at hand is Named Entity Recognition and Linking (NER+L). The number of entities, ambiguity of words, overlapping and nesting make the biomedical area significantly more difficult than many others. To overcome these difficulties, we have developed the Medical Concept Annotation Tool (MedCAT), an open-source unsupervised approach to NER+L. MedCAT uses unsupervised machine learning to disambiguate entities. It was validated on MIMIC-III (a freely accessible critical care database) and MedMentions (Biomedical papers annotated with mentions from the Unified Medical Language System). In case of NER+L, the comparison with existing tools shows that MedCAT improves the previous best with only unsupervised learning (F1=0.848 vs 0.691 for disease detection; F1=0.710 vs. 0.222 for general concept detection). A qualitative analysis of the vector embeddings learnt by MedCAT shows that it captures latent medical knowledge available in EHRs (MIMIC-III). Unsupervised learning can improve the performance of large scale entity extraction, but it has some limitations when working with only a couple of entities and a small dataset. In that case options are supervised learning or active learning, both of which are supported in MedCAT via the MedCATtrainer extension. Our approach can detect and link millions of different biomedical concepts with state-of-the-art performance, whilst being lightweight, fast and easy to use.

Zeljko Kraljevic, Anthony Shek, Daniel Bean et al.

The data available in Electronic Health Records (EHRs) provides the opportunity to transform care, and the best way to provide better care for one patient is through learning from the data available on all other patients. Temporal modelling of a patient's medical history, which takes into account the sequence of past events, can be used to predict future events such as a diagnosis of a new disorder or complication of a previous or existing disorder. While most prediction approaches use mostly the structured data in EHRs or a subset of single-domain predictions and outcomes, we present MedGPT a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses Named Entity Recognition and Linking tools (i.e. MedCAT) to structure and organize the free text portion of EHRs and anticipate a range of future medical events (initially disorders). Since a large portion of EHR data is in text form, such an approach benefits from a granular and detailed view of a patient while introducing modest additional noise. MedGPT effectively deals with the noise and the added granularity, and achieves a precision of 0.344, 0.552 and 0.640 (vs LSTM 0.329, 0.538 and 0.633) when predicting the top 1, 3 and 5 candidate future disorders on real world hospital data from King's College Hospital, London, UK (\textasciitilde600k patients). We also show that our model captures medical knowledge by testing it on an experimental medical multiple choice question answering task, and by examining the attentional focus of the model using gradient-based saliency methods.

Rebecca Bendayan, Honghan Wu, Zeljko Kraljevic et al.

Multimorbidity research in mental health services requires data from physical health conditions which is traditionally limited in mental health care electronic health records. In this study, we aimed to extract data from physical health conditions from clinical notes using SemEHR. Data was extracted from Clinical Record Interactive Search (CRIS) system at South London and Maudsley Biomedical Research Centre (SLaM BRC) and the cohort consisted of all individuals who had received a primary or secondary diagnosis of severe mental illness between 2007 and 2018. Three pairs of annotators annotated 2403 documents with an average Cohen's Kappa of 0.757. Results show that the NLP performance varies across different diseases areas (F1 0.601 - 0.954) suggesting that the language patterns or terminologies of different condition groups entail different technical challenges to the same NLP task.

Thomas Searle, Zeljko Kraljevic, Rebecca Bendayan et al.

We present MedCATTrainer an interface for building, improving and customising a given Named Entity Recognition and Linking (NER+L) model for biomedical domain text. NER+L is often used as a first step in deriving value from clinical text. Collecting labelled data for training models is difficult due to the need for specialist domain knowledge. MedCATTrainer offers an interactive web-interface to inspect and improve recognised entities from an underlying NER+L model via active learning. Secondary use of data for clinical research often has task and context specific criteria. MedCATTrainer provides a further interface to define and collect supervised learning training data for researcher specific use cases. Initial results suggest our approach allows for efficient and accurate collection of research use case specific training data.