Jimmy Olsson

Gabriel Cardoso, Sergey Samsonov, Achille Thin et al.

Importance Sampling (IS) is a method for approximating expectations under a target distribution using independent samples from a proposal distribution and the associated importance weights. In many applications, the target distribution is known only up to a normalization constant, in which case self-normalized IS (SNIS) can be used. While the use of self-normalization can have a positive effect on the dispersion of the estimator, it introduces bias. In this work, we propose a new method, BR-SNIS, whose complexity is essentially the same as that of SNIS and which significantly reduces bias without increasing the variance. This method is a wrapper in the sense that it uses the same proposal samples and importance weights as SNIS, but makes clever use of iterated sampling--importance resampling (ISIR) to form a bias-reduced version of the estimator. We furnish the proposed algorithm with rigorous theoretical results, including new bias, variance and high-probability bounds, and these are illustrated by numerical examples.

Yazid Janati, Badr Moufad, Alain Durmus et al.

Recent advancements in solving Bayesian inverse problems have spotlighted denoising diffusion models (DDMs) as effective priors. Although these have great potential, DDM priors yield complex posterior distributions that are challenging to sample. Existing approaches to posterior sampling in this context address this problem either by retraining model-specific components, leading to stiff and cumbersome methods, or by introducing approximations with uncontrolled errors that affect the accuracy of the produced samples. We present an innovative framework, divide-and-conquer posterior sampling, which leverages the inherent structure of DDMs to construct a sequence of intermediate posteriors that guide the produced samples to the target posterior. Our method significantly reduces the approximation error associated with current techniques without the need for retraining. We demonstrate the versatility and effectiveness of our approach for a wide range of Bayesian inverse problems. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/Badr-MOUFAD/dcps}

Badr Moufad, Yazid Janati, Lisa Bedin et al.

Diffusion models have recently shown considerable potential in solving Bayesian inverse problems when used as priors. However, sampling from the resulting denoising posterior distributions remains a challenge as it involves intractable terms. To tackle this issue, state-of-the-art approaches formulate the problem as that of sampling from a surrogate diffusion model targeting the posterior and decompose its scores into two terms: the prior score and an intractable guidance term. While the former is replaced by the pre-trained score of the considered diffusion model, the guidance term has to be estimated. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that utilises a decomposition of the transitions which, in contrast to previous methods, allows a trade-off between the complexity of the intractable guidance term and that of the prior transitions. We validate the proposed approach through extensive experiments on linear and nonlinear inverse problems, including challenging cases with latent diffusion models as priors. We then demonstrate its applicability to various modalities and its promising impact on public health by tackling cardiovascular disease diagnosis through the reconstruction of incomplete electrocardiograms. The code is publicly available at \url{https://github.com/yazidjanati/mgps}.

Yazid Janati, Badr Moufad, Mehdi Abou El Qassime et al.

Denoising diffusion models have driven significant progress in the field of Bayesian inverse problems. Recent approaches use pre-trained diffusion models as priors to solve a wide range of such problems, only leveraging inference-time compute and thereby eliminating the need to retrain task-specific models on the same dataset. To approximate the posterior of a Bayesian inverse problem, a diffusion model samples from a sequence of intermediate posterior distributions, each with an intractable likelihood function. This work proposes a novel mixture approximation of these intermediate distributions. Since direct gradient-based sampling of these mixtures is infeasible due to intractable terms, we propose a practical method based on Gibbs sampling. We validate our approach through extensive experiments on image inverse problems, utilizing both pixel- and latent-space diffusion priors, as well as on source separation with an audio diffusion model. The code is available at https://www.github.com/badr-moufad/mgdm

Badr Moufad, Yazid Janati, Alain Durmus et al.

Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) is a widely used technique for improving conditional diffusion models by linearly combining the outputs of conditional and unconditional denoisers. While CFG enhances visual quality and improves alignment with prompts, it often reduces sample diversity, leading to a challenging trade-off between quality and diversity. To address this issue, we make two key contributions. First, CFG generally does not correspond to a well-defined denoising diffusion model (DDM). In particular, contrary to common intuition, CFG does not yield samples from the target distribution associated with the limiting CFG score as the noise level approaches zero -- where the data distribution is tilted by a power $w \gt 1$ of the conditional distribution. We identify the missing component: a Rényi divergence term that acts as a repulsive force and is required to correct CFG and render it consistent with a proper DDM. Our analysis shows that this correction term vanishes in the low-noise limit. Second, motivated by this insight, we propose a Gibbs-like sampling procedure to draw samples from the desired tilted distribution. This method starts with an initial sample from the conditional diffusion model without CFG and iteratively refines it, preserving diversity while progressively enhancing sample quality. We evaluate our approach on both image and text-to-audio generation tasks, demonstrating substantial improvements over CFG across all considered metrics. The code is available at https://github.com/yazidjanati/cfgig

Alessandro Mastrototaro, Jimmy Olsson

Being the most classical generative model for serial data, state-space models (SSM) are fundamental in AI and statistical machine learning. In SSM, any form of parameter learning or latent state inference typically involves the computation of complex latent-state posteriors. In this work, we build upon the variational sequential Monte Carlo (VSMC) method, which provides computationally efficient and accurate model parameter estimation and Bayesian latent-state inference by combining particle methods and variational inference. While standard VSMC operates in the offline mode, by re-processing repeatedly a given batch of data, we distribute the approximation of the gradient of the VSMC surrogate ELBO in time using stochastic approximation, allowing for online learning in the presence of streams of data. This results in an algorithm, online VSMC, that is capable of performing efficiently, entirely on-the-fly, both parameter estimation and particle proposal adaptation. In addition, we provide rigorous theoretical results describing the algorithm's convergence properties as the number of data tends to infinity as well as numerical illustrations of its excellent convergence properties and usefulness also in batch-processing settings.

Alessandro Mastrototaro, Mathias Müller, Jimmy Olsson

General state-space models (SSMs) are widely used in statistical machine learning and are among the most classical generative models for sequential time-series data. SSMs, comprising latent Markovian states, can be subjected to variational inference (VI), but standard VI methods like the importance-weighted autoencoder (IWAE) lack functionality for streaming data. To enable online VI in SSMs when the observations are received in real time, we propose maximising an IWAE-type variational lower bound on the asymptotic contrast function, rather than the standard IWAE ELBO, using stochastic approximation. Unlike the recursive maximum likelihood method, which directly maximises the asymptotic contrast, our approach, called online sequential IWAE (OSIWAE), allows for online learning of both model parameters and a Markovian recognition model for inferring latent states. By approximating filter state posteriors and their derivatives using sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, we create a particle-based framework for online VI in SSMs. This approach is more theoretically well-founded than recently proposed online variational SMC methods. We provide rigorous theoretical results on the learning objective and a numerical study demonstrating the method's efficiency in learning model parameters and particle proposal kernels.

Tianfang Zhang, Rasmus Bokrantz, Jimmy Olsson

Purpose: We propose a general framework for quantifying predictive uncertainties of dose-related quantities and leveraging this information in a dose mimicking problem in the context of automated radiation therapy treatment planning. Methods: A three-step pipeline, comprising feature extraction, dose statistic prediction and dose mimicking, is employed. In particular, the features are produced by a convolutional variational autoencoder and used as inputs in a previously developed nonparametric Bayesian statistical method, estimating the multivariate predictive distribution of a collection of predefined dose statistics. Specially developed objective functions are then used to construct a probabilistic dose mimicking problem based on the produced distributions, creating deliverable treatment plans. Results: The numerical experiments are performed using a dataset of 94 retrospective treatment plans of prostate cancer patients. We show that the features extracted by the variational autoencoder capture geometric information of substantial relevance to the dose statistic prediction problem and are related to dose statistics in a more regularized fashion than hand-crafted features. The estimated predictive distributions are reasonable and outperforms a non-input-dependent benchmark method, and the deliverable plans produced by the probabilistic dose mimicking agree better with their clinical counterparts than for a non-probabilistic formulation. Conclusions: We demonstrate that prediction of dose-related quantities may be extended to include uncertainty estimation and that such probabilistic information may be leveraged in a dose mimicking problem. The treatment plans produced by the proposed pipeline resemble their original counterparts well, illustrating the merits of a holistic approach to automated planning based on probabilistic modeling.

Tianfang Zhang, Rasmus Bokrantz, Jimmy Olsson

We present a new nonparametric mixture-of-experts model for multivariate regression problems, inspired by the probabilistic k-nearest neighbors algorithm. Using a conditionally specified model, predictions for out-of-sample inputs are based on similarities to each observed data point, yielding predictive distributions represented by Gaussian mixtures. Posterior inference is performed on the parameters of the mixture components as well as the distance metric using a mean-field variational Bayes algorithm accompanied with a stochastic gradient-based optimization procedure. The proposed method is especially advantageous in settings where inputs are of relatively high dimension in comparison to the data size, where input-output relationships are complex, and where predictive distributions may be skewed or multimodal. Computational studies on five datasets, of which two are synthetically generated, illustrate clear advantages of our mixture-of-experts method for high-dimensional inputs, outperforming competitor models both in terms of validation metrics and visual inspection.