Vikranth Dwaracherla

Ian Osband, Zheng Wen, Seyed Mohammad Asghari et al. · stanford

Thompson sampling (TS) is a popular heuristic for action selection, but it requires sampling from a posterior distribution. Unfortunately, this can become computationally intractable in complex environments, such as those modeled using neural networks. Approximate posterior samples can produce effective actions, but only if they reasonably approximate joint predictive distributions of outputs across inputs. Notably, accuracy of marginal predictive distributions does not suffice. Epistemic neural networks (ENNs) are designed to produce accurate joint predictive distributions. We compare a range of ENNs through computational experiments that assess their performance in approximating TS across bandit and reinforcement learning environments. The results indicate that ENNs serve this purpose well and illustrate how the quality of joint predictive distributions drives performance. Further, we demonstrate that the \textit{epinet} -- a small additive network that estimates uncertainty -- matches the performance of large ensembles at orders of magnitude lower computational cost. This enables effective application of TS with computation that scales gracefully to complex environments.

Vikranth Dwaracherla, Zheng Wen, Ian Osband et al. · deepmind, stanford

In machine learning, an agent needs to estimate uncertainty to efficiently explore and adapt and to make effective decisions. A common approach to uncertainty estimation maintains an ensemble of models. In recent years, several approaches have been proposed for training ensembles, and conflicting views prevail with regards to the importance of various ingredients of these approaches. In this paper, we aim to address the benefits of two ingredients -- prior functions and bootstrapping -- which have come into question. We show that prior functions can significantly improve an ensemble agent's joint predictions across inputs and that bootstrapping affords additional benefits if the signal-to-noise ratio varies across inputs. Our claims are justified by both theoretical and experimental results.

Xiuyuan Lu, Ian Osband, Seyed Mohammad Asghari et al. · stanford

Recent work introduced the epinet as a new approach to uncertainty modeling in deep learning. An epinet is a small neural network added to traditional neural networks, which, together, can produce predictive distributions. In particular, using an epinet can greatly improve the quality of joint predictions across multiple inputs, a measure of how well a neural network knows what it does not know. In this paper, we examine whether epinets can offer similar advantages under distributional shifts. We find that, across ImageNet-A/O/C, epinets generally improve robustness metrics. Moreover, these improvements are more significant than those afforded by even very large ensembles at orders of magnitude lower computational costs. However, these improvements are relatively small compared to the outstanding issues in distributionally-robust deep learning. Epinets may be a useful tool in the toolbox, but they are far from the complete solution.

Ian Osband, Zheng Wen, Seyed Mohammad Asghari et al.

Predictive distributions quantify uncertainties ignored by point estimates. This paper introduces The Neural Testbed: an open-source benchmark for controlled and principled evaluation of agents that generate such predictions. Crucially, the testbed assesses agents not only on the quality of their marginal predictions per input, but also on their joint predictions across many inputs. We evaluate a range of agents using a simple neural network data generating process. Our results indicate that some popular Bayesian deep learning agents do not fare well with joint predictions, even when they can produce accurate marginal predictions. We also show that the quality of joint predictions drives performance in downstream decision tasks. We find these results are robust across choice a wide range of generative models, and highlight the practical importance of joint predictions to the community.

Vikranth Dwaracherla, Seyed Mohammad Asghari, Botao Hao et al.

We present evidence of substantial benefit from efficient exploration in gathering human feedback to improve large language models. In our experiments, an agent sequentially generates queries while fitting a reward model to the feedback received. Our best-performing agent generates queries using double Thompson sampling, with uncertainty represented by an epistemic neural network. Our results demonstrate that efficient exploration enables high levels of performance with far fewer queries. Further, both uncertainty estimation and the choice of exploration scheme play critical roles.

Seyed Mohammad Asghari, Chris Chute, Vikranth Dwaracherla et al.

We develop an online learning algorithm that dramatically improves the data efficiency of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). Our algorithm incrementally updates reward and language models as choice data is received. The reward model is fit to the choice data, while the language model is updated by a variation of reinforce, with reinforcement signals provided by the reward model. Several features enable the efficiency gains: a small affirmative nudge added to each reinforcement signal, an epistemic neural network that models reward uncertainty, and information-directed exploration. With Gemma large language models (LLMs), our algorithm matches the performance of offline RLHF trained on 200K labels using fewer than 20K labels, representing more than a 10x gain in data efficiency. Extrapolating from our results, we expect our algorithm trained on 1M labels to match offline RLHF trained on 1B labels. This represents a 1,000x gain. To our knowledge, these are the first results to demonstrate that such large improvements are possible.

Ian Osband, Zheng Wen, Seyed Mohammad Asghari et al.

Most work on supervised learning research has focused on marginal predictions. In decision problems, joint predictive distributions are essential for good performance. Previous work has developed methods for assessing low-order predictive distributions with inputs sampled i.i.d. from the testing distribution. With low-dimensional inputs, these methods distinguish agents that effectively estimate uncertainty from those that do not. We establish that the predictive distribution order required for such differentiation increases greatly with input dimension, rendering these methods impractical. To accommodate high-dimensional inputs, we introduce \textit{dyadic sampling}, which focuses on predictive distributions associated with random \textit{pairs} of inputs. We demonstrate that this approach efficiently distinguishes agents in high-dimensional examples involving simple logistic regression as well as complex synthetic and empirical data.

Zheng Wen, Ian Osband, Chao Qin et al.

A fundamental challenge for any intelligent system is prediction: given some inputs, can you predict corresponding outcomes? Most work on supervised learning has focused on producing accurate marginal predictions for each input. However, we show that for a broad class of decision problems, accurate joint predictions are required to deliver good performance. In particular, we establish several results pertaining to combinatorial decision problems, sequential predictions, and multi-armed bandits to elucidate the essential role of joint predictive distributions. Our treatment of multi-armed bandits introduces an approximate Thompson sampling algorithm and analytic techniques that lead to a new kind of regret bound.

Ian Osband, Zheng Wen, Seyed Mohammad Asghari et al.

Intelligence relies on an agent's knowledge of what it does not know. This capability can be assessed based on the quality of joint predictions of labels across multiple inputs. In principle, ensemble-based approaches produce effective joint predictions, but the computational costs of training large ensembles can become prohibitive. We introduce the epinet: an architecture that can supplement any conventional neural network, including large pretrained models, and can be trained with modest incremental computation to estimate uncertainty. With an epinet, conventional neural networks outperform very large ensembles, consisting of hundreds or more particles, with orders of magnitude less computation. The epinet does not fit the traditional framework of Bayesian neural networks. To accommodate development of approaches beyond BNNs, such as the epinet, we introduce the epistemic neural network (ENN) as an interface for models that produce joint predictions.

Xiuyuan Lu, Benjamin Van Roy, Vikranth Dwaracherla et al.

Reinforcement learning agents have demonstrated remarkable achievements in simulated environments. Data efficiency poses an impediment to carrying this success over to real environments. The design of data-efficient agents calls for a deeper understanding of information acquisition and representation. We discuss concepts and regret analysis that together offer principled guidance. This line of thinking sheds light on questions of what information to seek, how to seek that information, and what information to retain. To illustrate concepts, we design simple agents that build on them and present computational results that highlight data efficiency.

Vikranth Dwaracherla, Xiuyuan Lu, Morteza Ibrahimi et al.

We study the use of hypermodels to represent epistemic uncertainty and guide exploration. This generalizes and extends the use of ensembles to approximate Thompson sampling. The computational cost of training an ensemble grows with its size, and as such, prior work has typically been limited to ensembles with tens of elements. We show that alternative hypermodels can enjoy dramatic efficiency gains, enabling behavior that would otherwise require hundreds or thousands of elements, and even succeed in situations where ensemble methods fail to learn regardless of size. This allows more accurate approximation of Thompson sampling as well as use of more sophisticated exploration schemes. In particular, we consider an approximate form of information-directed sampling and demonstrate performance gains relative to Thompson sampling. As alternatives to ensembles, we consider linear and neural network hypermodels, also known as hypernetworks. We prove that, with neural network base models, a linear hypermodel can represent essentially any distribution over functions, and as such, hypernetworks are no more expressive.

Vikranth Dwaracherla, Benjamin Van Roy

Algorithms that tackle deep exploration -- an important challenge in reinforcement learning -- have relied on epistemic uncertainty representation through ensembles or other hypermodels, exploration bonuses, or visitation count distributions. An open question is whether deep exploration can be achieved by an incremental reinforcement learning algorithm that tracks a single point estimate, without additional complexity required to account for epistemic uncertainty. We answer this question in the affirmative. In particular, we develop Langevin DQN, a variation of DQN that differs only in perturbing parameter updates with Gaussian noise and demonstrate through a computational study that the presented algorithm achieves deep exploration. We also offer some intuition to how Langevin DQN achieves deep exploration. In addition, we present a modification of the Langevin DQN algorithm to improve the computational efficiency.

Lin Shao, Parth Shah, Vikranth Dwaracherla et al.

Given two consecutive RGB-D images, we propose a model that estimates a dense 3D motion field, also known as scene flow. We take advantage of the fact that in robot manipulation scenarios, scenes often consist of a set of rigidly moving objects. Our model jointly estimates (i) the segmentation of the scene into an unknown but finite number of objects, (ii) the motion trajectories of these objects and (iii) the object scene flow. We employ an hourglass, deep neural network architecture. In the encoding stage, the RGB and depth images undergo spatial compression and correlation. In the decoding stage, the model outputs three images containing a per-pixel estimate of the corresponding object center as well as object translation and rotation. This forms the basis for inferring the object segmentation and final object scene flow. To evaluate our model, we generated a new and challenging, large-scale, synthetic dataset that is specifically targeted at robotic manipulation: It contains a large number of scenes with a very diverse set of simultaneously moving 3D objects and is recorded with a simulated, static RGB-D camera. In quantitative experiments, we show that we outperform state-of-the-art scene flow and motion-segmentation methods on this data set. In qualitative experiments, we show how our learned model transfers to challenging real-world scenes, visually generating better results than existing methods.