Colin Doumont

Henry Moss, Lachlan Astfalck, Thomas Cowperthwaite et al.

Gaussian processes (GPs) offer a principled probabilistic model over functions, but exact inference is restricted to the linear-Gaussian regime. We establish an explicit equivalence between GPs and a class of linear diffusion models, recasting predictive sampling as an ODE with closed-form Gaussian dynamics and a likelihood-dependent guidance term that admits a simple Monte Carlo approximation. In the linear-Gaussian setting, we recover standard GP conditioning exactly; beyond conjugacy, the same machinery handles any conditioning statement admitting point-wise likelihood evaluation -- including non-linear physics, and, for the first time, natural language via large language models. Whitening isolates the irreducible non-Gaussian dynamics, minimising Wasserstein-2 transport cost and eliminating numerical stiffness. The result is a general-purpose GP inference scheme requiring no bespoke derivations. Together, these results provide a general mechanism for incorporating the full richness of real-world knowledge as conditioning information, opening a new frontier for the probabilistic modelling of real-world problems.

Colin Doumont, Donney Fan, Natalie Maus et al.

High-dimensional spaces have challenged Bayesian optimization (BO). Existing methods aim to overcome this so-called curse of dimensionality by carefully encoding structural assumptions, from locality to sparsity to smoothness, into the optimization procedure. Surprisingly, we demonstrate that these approaches are outperformed by arguably the simplest method imaginable: Bayesian linear regression. After applying a geometric transformation to avoid boundary-seeking behavior, Gaussian processes with linear kernels match state-of-the-art performance on tasks with 60- to 6,000-dimensional search spaces. Linear models offer numerous advantages over their non-parametric counterparts: they afford closed-form sampling and their computation scales linearly with data, a fact we exploit on molecular optimization tasks with > 20,000 observations. Coupled with empirical analyses, our results suggest the need to depart from past intuitions about BO methods in high-dimensional spaces.