Yifei Xiong

Yifei Xiong, Xiliang Yang, Sanguo Zhang et al.

Sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) techniques have been recently proposed for dealing with simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods. Unlike approximate Bayesian computation, SNPE techniques learn the posterior from sequential simulation using neural network-based conditional density estimators by minimizing a specific loss function. The SNPE method proposed by Lueckmann et al. (2017) used a calibration kernel to boost the sample weights around the observed data, resulting in a concentrated loss function. However, the use of calibration kernels may increase the variances of both the empirical loss and its gradient, making the training inefficient. To improve the stability of SNPE, this paper proposes to use an adaptive calibration kernel and several variance reduction techniques. The proposed method greatly speeds up the process of training and provides a better approximation of the posterior than the original SNPE method and some existing competitors as confirmed by numerical experiments. We also managed to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method for a high-dimensional model with a real-world dataset.

Yifei Xiong, Nianqiao Phyllis Ju, Sanguo Zhang

Many modern statistical analysis and machine learning applications require training models on sensitive user data. Under a formal definition of privacy protection, differentially private algorithms inject calibrated noise into the confidential data or during the data analysis process to produce privacy-protected datasets or queries. However, restricting access to only privatized data during statistical analysis makes it computationally challenging to make valid statistical inferences. In this work, we propose simulation-based inference methods from privacy-protected datasets. In addition to sequential Monte Carlo approximate Bayesian computation, we adopt neural conditional density estimators as a flexible family of distributions to approximate the posterior distribution of model parameters given the observed private query results. We illustrate our methods on discrete time-series data under an infectious disease model and with ordinary linear regression models. Illustrating the privacy-utility trade-off, our experiments and analysis demonstrate the necessity and feasibility of designing valid statistical inference procedures to correct for biases introduced by the privacy-protection mechanisms.

Xiliang Yang, Yifei Xiong, Zhijian He

There is a growing interest in studying sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) techniques due to their advantages for simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods. The methods aim to learn the posterior from adaptively proposed simulations using neural network-based conditional density estimators. As an SNPE technique, the automatic posterior transformation (APT) method proposed by Greenberg et al. (2019) performs well and scales to high-dimensional data. However, the APT method requires computing the expectation of the logarithm of an intractable normalizing constant, i.e., a nested expectation. Although atomic proposals were used to render an analytical normalizing constant, it remains challenging to analyze the convergence of learning. In this paper, we reformulate APT as a nested estimation problem. Building on this, we construct several multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimators for the loss function and its gradients to accommodate different scenarios, including two unbiased estimators, and a biased estimator that trades a small bias for reduced variance and controlled runtime and memory usage. We also provide convergence results of stochastic gradient descent to quantify the interaction of the bias and variance of the gradient estimator. Numerical experiments for approximating complex posteriors with multimodality in moderate dimensions are provided to examine the effectiveness of the proposed methods.