Fabrice Popineau

José Lucas De Melo Costa, Fabrice Popineau, Arpad Rimmel et al.

Recent Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) have demonstrated state-of-the-art predictive performance, often surpassing Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees (GBDTs). However, the trustworthiness of these models, particularly their uncertainty quantification, has been largely overlooked. We investigate this gap through an extensive study comparing TFMs, GBDTs, and classical baselines on the 112 datasets of the TALENT benchmark. Our results reveal a performance-uncertainty trade-off: although TFMs achieve the highest predictive performance, measured by AUC, they exhibit lower conditional coverage under conformal prediction, measured by SSCS, compared to GBDTs. Complementary experiments on synthetic datasets further characterize the regimes in which this effect intensifies. We conclude that while TFMs advance predictive frontiers, achieving well-calibrated uncertainty remains a major open challenge for their reliable adoption. Code is available at: https://github.com/jose-melo/high-performance-low-reliability

Hugo Thimonier, Fabrice Popineau, Arpad Rimmel et al.

As with many other tasks, neural networks prove very effective for anomaly detection purposes. However, very few deep-learning models are suited for detecting anomalies on tabular datasets. This paper proposes a novel methodology to flag anomalies based on TracIn, an influence measure initially introduced for explicability purposes. The proposed methods can serve to augment any unsupervised deep anomaly detection method. We test our approach using Variational Autoencoders and show that the average influence of a subsample of training points on a test point can serve as a proxy for abnormality. Our model proves to be competitive in comparison with state-of-the-art approaches: it achieves comparable or better performance in terms of detection accuracy on medical and cyber-security tabular benchmark data.

Marc Velay, Bich-Liên Doan, Arpad Rimmel et al.

Deep Reinforcement Learning approaches to Online Portfolio Selection have grown in popularity in recent years. The sensitive nature of training Reinforcement Learning agents implies a need for extensive efforts in market representation, behavior objectives, and training processes, which have often been lacking in previous works. We propose a training and evaluation process to assess the performance of classical DRL algorithms for portfolio management. We found that most Deep Reinforcement Learning algorithms were not robust, with strategies generalizing poorly and degrading quickly during backtesting.

Hugo Thimonier, Fabrice Popineau, Arpad Rimmel et al.

This study explores the application of anomaly detection (AD) methods in imbalanced learning tasks, focusing on fraud detection using real online credit card payment data. We assess the performance of several recent AD methods and compare their effectiveness against standard supervised learning methods. Offering evidence of distribution shift within our dataset, we analyze its impact on the tested models' performances. Our findings reveal that LightGBM exhibits significantly superior performance across all evaluated metrics but suffers more from distribution shifts than AD methods. Furthermore, our investigation reveals that LightGBM also captures the majority of frauds detected by AD methods. This observation challenges the potential benefits of ensemble methods to combine supervised, and AD approaches to enhance performance. In summary, this research provides practical insights into the utility of these techniques in real-world scenarios, showing LightGBM's superiority in fraud detection while highlighting challenges related to distribution shifts.

Hugo Thimonier, Fabrice Popineau, Arpad Rimmel et al.

Deep learning for tabular data has garnered increasing attention in recent years, yet employing deep models for structured data remains challenging. While these models excel with unstructured data, their efficacy with structured data has been limited. Recent research has introduced retrieval-augmented models to address this gap, demonstrating promising results in supervised tasks such as classification and regression. In this work, we investigate using retrieval-augmented models for anomaly detection on tabular data. We propose a reconstruction-based approach in which a transformer model learns to reconstruct masked features of \textit{normal} samples. We test the effectiveness of KNN-based and attention-based modules to select relevant samples to help in the reconstruction process of the target sample. Our experiments on a benchmark of 31 tabular datasets reveal that augmenting this reconstruction-based anomaly detection (AD) method with sample-sample dependencies via retrieval modules significantly boosts performance. The present work supports the idea that retrieval module are useful to augment any deep AD method to enhance anomaly detection on tabular data.

Hugo Thimonier, Fabrice Popineau, Arpad Rimmel et al.

Anomaly detection is vital in many domains, such as finance, healthcare, and cybersecurity. In this paper, we propose a novel deep anomaly detection method for tabular data that leverages Non-Parametric Transformers (NPTs), a model initially proposed for supervised tasks, to capture both feature-feature and sample-sample dependencies. In a reconstruction-based framework, we train an NPT to reconstruct masked features of normal samples. In a non-parametric fashion, we leverage the whole training set during inference and use the model's ability to reconstruct the masked features to generate an anomaly score. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to successfully combine feature-feature and sample-sample dependencies for anomaly detection on tabular datasets. Through extensive experiments on 31 benchmark tabular datasets, we demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming existing methods by 2.4% and 1.2% in terms of F1-score and AUROC, respectively. Our ablation study further proves that modeling both types of dependencies is crucial for anomaly detection on tabular data.

Benoît Choffin, Fabrice Popineau, Yolaine Bourda et al.

Spaced repetition is among the most studied learning strategies in the cognitive science literature. It consists in temporally distributing exposure to an information so as to improve long-term memorization. Providing students with an adaptive and personalized distributed practice schedule would benefit more than just a generic scheduler. However, the applicability of such adaptive schedulers seems to be limited to pure memorization, e.g. flashcards or foreign language learning. In this article, we first frame the research problem of optimizing an adaptive and personalized spaced repetition scheduler when memorization concerns the application of underlying multiple skills. To this end, we choose to rely on a student model for inferring knowledge state and memory dynamics on any skill or combination of skills. We argue that no knowledge tracing model takes both memory decay and multiple skill tagging into account for predicting student performance. As a consequence, we propose a new student learning and forgetting model suited to our research problem: DAS3H builds on the additive factor models and includes a representation of the temporal distribution of past practice on the skills involved by an item. In particular, DAS3H allows the learning and forgetting curves to differ from one skill to another. Finally, we provide empirical evidence on three real-world educational datasets that DAS3H outperforms other state-of-the-art EDM models. These results suggest that incorporating both item-skill relationships and forgetting effect improves over student models that consider one or the other.