Neeraj Sarna

Sukrita Singh, Neeraj Sarna, Yuanyuan Li et al. · mit

Machine learning algorithms have grown in sophistication over the years and are increasingly deployed for real-life applications. However, when using machine learning techniques in practical settings, particularly in high-risk applications such as medicine and engineering, obtaining the failure probability of the predictive model is critical. We refer to this problem as the risk-assessment task. We focus on regression algorithms and the risk-assessment task of computing the probability of the true label lying inside an interval defined around the model's prediction. We solve the risk-assessment problem using the conformal prediction approach, which provides prediction intervals that are guaranteed to contain the true label with a given probability. Using this coverage property, we prove that our approximated failure probability is conservative in the sense that it is not lower than the true failure probability of the ML algorithm. We conduct extensive experiments to empirically study the accuracy of the proposed method for problems with and without covariate shift. Our analysis focuses on different modeling regimes, dataset sizes, and conformal prediction methodologies.

Neeraj Sarna

Any numerical method fails to provide us with acceptable results if not equipped with appropriate boundary conditions. Catering to more realistic applications, in the present article we have extended the work done on the one plus one dimensional Boltzmann equation to the Boltzmann equation involving multi-dimensions in physical and velocity space. Criteria for stable boundary conditions, using energy estimates, have been discussed for linear symmetric hyperbolic initial boundary value problems. Since the use of energy estimates requires the hyperbolic system to be symmetric, the symmetric hyperbolicity of the moment equations arising from a Hermite discretization of the Boltzmann equation has been studied. Furthermore, an algorithm to construct a general symmetrizer for an arbitrary order Hermite discretization has been presented. A block structure for the multi-dimensional moment equations has been recognised which has been used to construct stable Onsager boundary conditions. The newly proposed Onsager boundary conditions have been used to study a Poisson heat conduction problem using a higher order Hermite discretization; the results have been compared to those obtained from the Maxwell's accommodation model.

Neeraj Sarna, Yuanyuan Li, Michael von Gablenz

Large scale text-to-image generation models can memorize and reproduce their training dataset. Since the training dataset often contains copyrighted material, reproduction of training dataset poses a copyright infringement risk, which could result in legal liabilities and financial losses for both the AI user and the developer. The current works explores the potential of chain-of-thought and task instruction prompting in reducing copyrighted content generation. To this end, we present a formulation that combines these two techniques with two other copyright mitigation strategies: a) negative prompting, and b) prompt re-writing. We study the generated images in terms their similarity to a copyrighted image and their relevance of the user input. We present numerical experiments on a variety of models and provide insights on the effectiveness of the aforementioned techniques for varying model complexity.

Zhexiao Lin, Yuanyuan Li, Neeraj Sarna et al.

Large language models have achieved impressive performance across diverse tasks. However, their tendency to produce overconfident and factually incorrect outputs, known as hallucinations, poses risks in real world applications. Conformal prediction provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage guarantees, but standard conformal prediction breaks down under domain shift, often leading to under-coverage and unreliable prediction sets. We propose a new framework called Domain-Shift-Aware Conformal Prediction (DS-CP). Our framework adapts conformal prediction to large language models under domain shift, by systematically reweighting calibration samples based on their proximity to the test prompt, thereby preserving validity while enhancing adaptivity. Our theoretical analysis and experiments on the MMLU benchmark demonstrate that the proposed method delivers more reliable coverage than standard conformal prediction, especially under substantial distribution shifts, while maintaining efficiency. This provides a practical step toward trustworthy uncertainty quantification for large language models in real-world deployment.

Ozgur Guldogan, Neeraj Sarna, Yuanyuan Li et al.

While counterfactual fairness of point predictors is well studied, its extension to prediction sets--central to fair decision-making under uncertainty--remains underexplored. On the other hand, conformal prediction (CP) provides efficient, distribution-free, finite-sample valid prediction sets, yet does not ensure counterfactual fairness. We close this gap by developing Counterfactually Fair Conformal Prediction (CF-CP) that produces counterfactually fair prediction sets. Through symmetrization of conformity scores across protected-attribute interventions, we prove that CF-CP results in counterfactually fair prediction sets while maintaining the marginal coverage property. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate that on both synthetic and real datasets, across regression and classification tasks, CF-CP achieves the desired counterfactual fairness and meets the target coverage rate with minimal increase in prediction set size. CF-CP offers a simple, training-free route to counterfactually fair uncertainty quantification.

Lena Reissinger, Yuanyuan Li, Anna-Carolina Haensch et al.

Visual Generative AI models have demonstrated remarkable capability in generating high-quality images from simple inputs like text prompts. However, because these models are trained on images from diverse sources, they risk memorizing and reproducing specific content, raising concerns about intellectual property (IP) infringement. Recent advances in prompt engineering offer a cost-effective way to enhance generative AI performance. In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness of prompt engineering techniques in mitigating IP infringement risks in image generation. Our findings show that Chain of Thought Prompting and Task Instruction Prompting significantly reduce the similarity between generated images and the training data of diffusion models, thereby lowering the risk of IP infringement.

Yuanyuan Li, Neeraj Sarna, Yang Lin

Machine Learning models are being extensively used in safety critical applications where errors from these models could cause harm to the user. Such risks are amplified when multiple machine learning models, which are deployed concurrently, interact and make errors simultaneously. This paper explores three scenarios where error correlations between multiple models arise, resulting in such aggregated risks. Using real-world data, we simulate these scenarios and quantify the correlations in errors of different models. Our findings indicate that aggregated risks are substantial, particularly when models share similar algorithms, training datasets, or foundational models. Overall, we observe that correlations across models are pervasive and likely to intensify with increased reliance on foundational models and widely used public datasets, highlighting the need for effective mitigation strategies to address these challenges.

Disha Ghandwani, Neeraj Sarna, Yuanyuan Li et al.

Advanced classification algorithms are being increasingly used in safety-critical applications like health-care, engineering, etc. In such applications, miss-classifications made by ML algorithms can result in substantial financial or health-related losses. To better anticipate and prepare for such losses, the algorithm user seeks an estimate for the probability that the algorithm miss-classifies a sample. We refer to this task as the risk-assessment. For a variety of models and datasets, we numerically analyze the performance of different methods in solving the risk-assessment problem. We consider two solution strategies: a) calibration techniques that calibrate the output probabilities of classification models to provide accurate probability outputs; and b) a novel approach based upon the prediction interval generation technique of conformal prediction. Our conformal prediction based approach is model and data-distribution agnostic, simple to implement, and provides reasonable results for a variety of use-cases. We compare the different methods on a broad variety of models and datasets.