Soumendra Lahiri

Yanjie Zhong, Jiaqi Li, Soumendra Lahiri

This paper develops a new dimension-free Azuma-Hoeffding type bound on summation norm of a martingale difference sequence with random individual bounds. With this novel result, we provide high-probability bounds for the gradient norm estimator in the proposed algorithm Prob-SARAH, which is a modified version of the StochAstic Recursive grAdient algoritHm (SARAH), a state-of-art variance reduced algorithm that achieves optimal computational complexity in expectation for the finite sum problem. The in-probability complexity by Prob-SARAH matches the best in-expectation result up to logarithmic factors. Empirical experiments demonstrate the superior probabilistic performance of Prob-SARAH on real datasets compared to other popular algorithms.

Sweta Rai, Alexis Hoffman, Soumendra Lahiri et al.

The heavy-tailed behavior of the generalized extreme-value distribution makes it a popular choice for modeling extreme events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, etc. However, estimating the distribution's parameters using conventional maximum likelihood methods can be computationally intensive, even for moderate-sized datasets. To overcome this limitation, we propose a computationally efficient, likelihood-free estimation method utilizing a neural network. Through an extensive simulation study, we demonstrate that the proposed neural network-based method provides Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameter estimates with comparable accuracy to the conventional maximum likelihood method but with a significant computational speedup. To account for estimation uncertainty, we utilize parametric bootstrapping, which is inherent in the trained network. Finally, we apply this method to 1000-year annual maximum temperature data from the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) across North America for three atmospheric concentrations: 289 ppm $\mathrm{CO}_2$ (pre-industrial), 700 ppm $\mathrm{CO}_2$ (future conditions), and 1400 ppm $\mathrm{CO}_2$, and compare the results with those obtained using the maximum likelihood approach.

Tuhin Majumder, Soumendra Lahiri, Donald Martin

Higher-order Markov chains are frequently used to model categorical time series. However, a major problem with fitting such models is the exponentially growing number of parameters in the model order. A popular approach to parsimonious modeling is to use a Variable Length Markov Chain (VLMC), which determines relevant contexts (recent pasts) of variable orders and forms a context tree. A more general parsimonious modeling approach is given by Sparse Markov Models (SMMs), where all possible histories of order $m$ are partitioned such that the transition probability vectors are identical for the histories belonging to any particular group. In this paper, we develop an elegant method of fitting SMMs based on convex clustering and regularization. The regularization parameter is selected using the BIC criterion. Theoretical results establish model selection consistency of our method for large sample size. Extensive simulation results under different set-ups are presented to study finite sample performance of the method. Real data analysis on modelling and classifying disease sub-types demonstrates the applicability of our method as well.

Somnath Bhadra, Kaustav Chakraborty, Srijan Sengupta et al.

This paper studies the matched network inference problem, where the goal is to determine if two networks, defined on a common set of nodes, exhibit a specific form of stochastic similarity. Two notions of similarity are considered: (i) equality, i.e., testing whether the networks arise from the same random graph model, and (ii) scaling, i.e., testing whether their probability matrices are proportional for some unknown scaling constant. We develop a testing framework based on a parametric bootstrap approach and a Frobenius norm-based test statistic. The proposed approach is highly versatile as it covers both the equality and scaling problems, and ensures adaptability under various model settings, including stochastic blockmodels, Chung-Lu models, and random dot product graph models. We establish theoretical consistency of the proposed tests and demonstrate their empirical performance through extensive simulations under a wide range of model classes. Our results establish the flexibility and computational efficiency of the proposed method compared to existing approaches. We also report a real-world application involving the Aarhus network dataset, which reveals meaningful sociological patterns across different communication layers.