Andrey Dukhovny

Vadim Porvatov, Andrey Dukhovny, Andrey Lange

Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) for Random Forest faces a specific difficulty in tuning the number of trees: the predictive score typically improves monotonically with ensemble size, so standard methods such as Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) and Hyperband require a predefined search range and often drive the estimate toward its right boundary. Early-stopping strategies avoid fixing such a range, but can be sensitive to score noise and prone to premature stopping. To address this, we propose an integrated triplet-based plateau-search algorithm that removes the number of trees from the direct TPE search space and still exploits information accumulated across HPO trials. The method adaptively tracks a near-minimal sufficient ensemble size by monitoring relative changes in the out-of-bag (OOB) score across a triplet of forest sizes and shifting this triplet accordingly. This yields an automated and user-interpretable procedure based on a tolerance parameter. We also provide a theoretical analysis: we relate the proposed relative OOB-score criterion to the gap between the current and limiting scores, and derive an asymptotic variance estimate for the corresponding OOB-based absolute relative difference. Experiments show that the selected number of trees can differ substantially from the common heuristic: for most classical benchmark datasets it is smaller, whereas for some high-dimensional bioinformatics datasets, such as Arcene and Dorothea, it is larger. The source code and reproducible experiments are available at https://github.com/lange-am/rf_plateau_hpo.

Viktor Moskvoretskii, Dmitry Osin, Egor Shvetsov et al.

This study explores the application of self-supervised learning techniques for event sequences. It is a key modality in various applications such as banking, e-commerce, and healthcare. However, there is limited research on self-supervised learning for event sequences, and methods from other domains like images, texts, and speech may not easily transfer. To determine the most suitable approach, we conduct a detailed comparative analysis of previously identified best-performing methods. We find that neither the contrastive nor generative method is superior. Our assessment includes classifying event sequences, predicting the next event, and evaluating embedding quality. These results further highlight the potential benefits of combining both methods. Given the lack of research on hybrid models in this domain, we initially adapt the baseline model from another domain. However, upon observing its underperformance, we develop a novel method called the Multimodal-Learning Event Model (MLEM). MLEM treats contrastive learning and generative modeling as distinct yet complementary modalities, aligning their embeddings. The results of our study demonstrate that combining contrastive and generative approaches into one procedure with MLEM achieves superior performance across multiple metrics.