Geoffrey G. Messier

Caleb John, Geoffrey G. Messier

This paper uses rule search techniques for the early identification of emergency homeless shelter clients who are at risk of becoming long term or chronic shelter users. Using a data set from a major North American shelter containing 12 years of service interactions with over 40,000 individuals, the optimized pruning for unordered search (OPUS) algorithm is used to develop rules that are both intuitive and effective. The rules are evaluated within a framework compatible with the real-time delivery of a housing program meant to transition high risk clients to supportive housing. Results demonstrate that the median time to identification of clients at risk of chronic shelter use drops from 297 days to 162 days when the methods in this paper are applied.

Musa Taib, Jiajun Wu, Steve Drew et al.

The top priority of a Housing and Homelessness System of Care (HHSC) is to connect people experiencing homelessness to supportive housing. An HHSC typically consists of many agencies serving the same population. Information technology platforms differ in type and quality between agencies, so their data are usually isolated from one agency to another. Larger agencies may have sufficient data to train and test artificial intelligence (AI) tools but smaller agencies typically do not. To address this gap, we introduce a Federated Learning (FL) approach enabling all agencies to train a predictive model collaboratively without sharing their sensitive data. We demonstrate how FL can be used within an HHSC to provide all agencies equitable access to quality AI and further assist human decision-makers in the allocation of resources within HHSC. This is achieved while preserving the privacy of the people within the data by not sharing identifying information between agencies without their consent. Our experimental results using real-world HHSC data from Calgary, Alberta, demonstrate that our FL approach offers comparable performance with the idealized scenario of training the predictive model with data fully shared and linked between agencies.

Musa Taib, Geoffrey G. Messier

Machine learning models benefit when allowed to learn from temporal trends in time-stamped administrative data. These trends can be represented by dividing a model's observation window into time segments or bins. Model training time and performance can be improved by representing each feature with a different time resolution. However, this causes the time bin size hyperparameter search space to grow exponentially with the number of features. The contribution of this paper is to propose a computationally efficient time series analysis to investigate binning (TAIB) technique that determines which subset of data features benefit the most from time bin size hyperparameter tuning. This technique is demonstrated using hospital and housing/homelessness administrative data sets. The results show that TAIB leads to models that are not only more efficient to train but can perform better than models that default to representing all features with the same time bin size.