Lingzhou Xue

Yizhe Ding, Runze Li, Jia Liu et al.

This paper establishes a theoretical framework for the uniform convergence of smoothly activated deep neural network (DNN) estimators. While standard ReLU networks achieve minimax-optimal rates in the $L^2(P)$ norm for various nonparametric regression tasks, we establish a theoretical lower bound demonstrating that least-squares ReLU estimators can suffer from the curse of dimensionality in their uniform convergence behavior. Motivated by the need for reliable uniform guarantees in downstream tasks requiring worst-case reliability, we address this limitation by analyzing smoothly activated DNNs (smooth DNNs), encompassing both feedforward and residual structures. We establish novel pseudo-dimension bounds, non-asymptotic approximation guarantees, and Hölder-norm bounds for the approximators of these models. Leveraging these results, we derive non-asymptotic uniform convergence rates for smooth DNN estimators across multiple statistical contexts, including Huber, least-squares, quantile, and logistic regression. We prove that smooth DNNs can mitigate the {curse of dimensionality} in uniform convergence by adaptively exploiting the low-dimensional hierarchical composition structure of the target function. Supported by both simulation studies and a real-world application, our results position smooth DNNs as a theoretically grounded and practically viable alternative to ReLU networks for statistical learning tasks requiring uniform guarantees.

Zhong Zheng, Shiqian Ma, Lingzhou Xue

This paper considers the robust phase retrieval problem, which can be cast as a nonsmooth and nonconvex optimization problem. We propose a new inexact proximal linear algorithm with the subproblem being solved inexactly. Our contributions are two adaptive stopping criteria for the subproblem. The convergence behavior of the proposed methods is analyzed. Through experiments on both synthetic and real datasets, we demonstrate that our methods are much more efficient than existing methods, such as the original proximal linear algorithm and the subgradient method.

Jun Tao, Qian Chen, James W. Snyder et al.

Marketers employ various online advertising channels to reach customers, and they are particularly interested in attribution for measuring the degree to which individual touchpoints contribute to an eventual conversion. The availability of individual customer-level path-to-purchase data and the increasing number of online marketing channels and types of touchpoints bring new challenges to this fundamental problem. We aim to tackle the attribution problem with finer granularity by conducting attribution at the path level. To this end, we develop a novel graphical point process framework to study the direct conversion effects and the full relational structure among numerous types of touchpoints simultaneously. Utilizing the temporal point process of conversion and the graphical structure, we further propose graphical attribution methods to allocate proper path-level conversion credit, called the attribution score, to individual touchpoints or corresponding channels for each customer's path to purchase. Our proposed attribution methods consider the attribution score as the removal effect, and we use the rigorous probabilistic definition to derive two types of removal effects. We examine the performance of our proposed methods in extensive simulation studies and compare their performance with commonly used attribution models. We also demonstrate the performance of the proposed methods in a real-world attribution application.

Zhong Zheng, Lingzhou Xue

The phase retrieval problem in the presence of noise aims to recover the signal vector of interest from a set of quadratic measurements with infrequent but arbitrary corruptions, and it plays an important role in many scientific applications. However, the essential geometric structure of the nonconvex robust phase retrieval based on the $\ell_1$-loss is largely unknown to study spurious local solutions, even under the ideal noiseless setting, and its intrinsic nonsmooth nature also impacts the efficiency of optimization algorithms. This paper introduces the smoothed robust phase retrieval (SRPR) based on a family of convolution-type smoothed loss functions. Theoretically, we prove that the SRPR enjoys a benign geometric structure with high probability: (1) under the noiseless situation, the SRPR has no spurious local solutions, and the target signals are global solutions, and (2) under the infrequent but arbitrary corruptions, we characterize the stationary points of the SRPR and prove its benign landscape, which is the first landscape analysis of phase retrieval with corruption in the literature. Moreover, we prove the local linear convergence rate of gradient descent for solving the SRPR under the noiseless situation. Experiments on both simulated datasets and image recovery are provided to demonstrate the numerical performance of the SRPR.

Xin Yu, Hanwen Xing, Lingzhou Xue

Achieving personalized alignment requires adapting large language models to each user's evolving context. While decoding-time personalization offers a scalable alternative to training-time methods, existing methods largely rely on implicit, less interpretable preference representations and impose a rigid, context-agnostic user representation, failing to account for how preferences shift across prompts. We introduce EXACT, a new decoding-time personalization that aligns generation with limited pairwise preference feedback using a predefined set of interpretable attributes. EXACT first identifies user-specific attribute subsets by maximizing the likelihood of preferred responses in the offline stage. Then, for online inference, EXACT retrieves the most semantically relevant attributes for an incoming prompt and injects them into the context to steer generation. We establish theoretical approximation guarantees for the proposed algorithm under mild assumptions, and provably show that our similarity-based retrieval mechanism effectively mitigates contextual preference shifts, adapting to disparate tasks without pooling conflicting preferences. Extensive experiments on human-annotated preference datasets demonstrate that EXACT consistently outperforms strong baselines, including preference modeling accuracy and personalized generation quality.

Haochen Zhang, Zhong Zheng, Lingzhou Xue

We study gap-dependent performance guarantees for nearly minimax-optimal algorithms in reinforcement learning with linear function approximation. While prior works have established gap-dependent regret bounds in this setting, existing analyses do not apply to algorithms that achieve the nearly minimax-optimal worst-case regret bound $\tilde{O}(d\sqrt{H^3K})$, where $d$ is the feature dimension, $H$ is the horizon length, and $K$ is the number of episodes. We bridge this gap by providing the first gap-dependent regret bound for the nearly minimax-optimal algorithm LSVI-UCB++ (He et al., 2023). Our analysis yields improved dependencies on both $d$ and $H$ compared to previous gap-dependent results. Moreover, leveraging the low policy-switching property of LSVI-UCB++, we introduce a concurrent variant that enables efficient parallel exploration across multiple agents and establish the first gap-dependent sample complexity upper bound for online multi-agent RL with linear function approximation, achieving linear speedup with respect to the number of agents.

Xin Yu, Liuchen Liao, Yiwen Zhang et al.

On-policy distillation is an efficient alternative to reinforcement learning, offering dense token-level training signals. However, its reliance on a stronger external teacher has driven recent work on on-policy self-distillation, where the same model serves as both teacher and student under different prompt contexts. Yet, existing self-distillation methods largely reduce learning to KL matching toward the context-augmented teacher model. This approach often suffers from training instability and can degrade reasoning performance over time. Moreover, self-distillation from the same model with prompt augmentation lacks the exploratory diversity provided by a genuine external teacher. To address these limitations, we move beyond fixed-teacher KL matching and propose \textbf{P}reference-\textbf{B}ased \textbf{S}elf-\textbf{D}istillation (\textbf{PBSD}), which revisits on-policy self-distillation through a reward-regularized perspective. Instead of directly matching the teacher distribution, we derive a reward-regularized objective whose analytic optimum is a reward-reweighted teacher distribution, yielding a target policy provably superior to the original teacher under this objective. Practically, PBSD optimizes preference gaps between teacher and student samples while maintaining on-policy student sampling. We support this framework with a statistical analysis of the induced preference-learning problem, formally establishing when on policy self-distillation is preferable to learning from an external teacher in our setting. Experiments on mathematical reasoning and tool-use benchmarks across multiple model scales demonstrate that PBSD consistently achieves the strongest average performance among comparable baselines, showing improved training stability over prior self-distillation baselines while preserving token efficiency.

Zhong Zheng, Fengyu Gao, Lingzhou Xue et al.

In this paper, we consider federated reinforcement learning for tabular episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDP) where, under the coordination of a central server, multiple agents collaboratively explore the environment and learn an optimal policy without sharing their raw data. While linear speedup in the number of agents has been achieved for some metrics, such as convergence rate and sample complexity, in similar settings, it is unclear whether it is possible to design a model-free algorithm to achieve linear regret speedup with low communication cost. We propose two federated Q-Learning algorithms termed as FedQ-Hoeffding and FedQ-Bernstein, respectively, and show that the corresponding total regrets achieve a linear speedup compared with their single-agent counterparts when the time horizon is sufficiently large, while the communication cost scales logarithmically in the total number of time steps $T$. Those results rely on an event-triggered synchronization mechanism between the agents and the server, a novel step size selection when the server aggregates the local estimates of the state-action values to form the global estimates, and a set of new concentration inequalities to bound the sum of non-martingale differences. This is the first work showing that linear regret speedup and logarithmic communication cost can be achieved by model-free algorithms in federated reinforcement learning.

Haochen Zhang, Zhong Zheng, Lingzhou Xue

We present the first gap-dependent analysis of regret and communication cost for on-policy federated $Q$-Learning in tabular episodic finite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs). Existing FRL methods focus on worst-case scenarios, leading to $\sqrt{T}$-type regret bounds and communication cost bounds with a $\log T$ term scaling with the number of agents $M$, states $S$, and actions $A$, where $T$ is the average total number of steps per agent. In contrast, our novel framework leverages the benign structures of MDPs, such as a strictly positive suboptimality gap, to achieve a $\log T$-type regret bound and a refined communication cost bound that disentangles exploration and exploitation. Our gap-dependent regret bound reveals a distinct multi-agent speedup pattern, and our gap-dependent communication cost bound removes the dependence on $MSA$ from the $\log T$ term. Notably, our gap-dependent communication cost bound also yields a better global switching cost when $M=1$, removing $SA$ from the $\log T$ term.

Xin Yu, Zelin He, Ying Sun et al.

Personalized federated learning (PFL) offers a flexible framework for aggregating information across distributed clients with heterogeneous data. This work considers a personalized federated learning setting that simultaneously learns global and local models. While purely local training has no communication cost, collaborative learning among the clients can leverage shared knowledge to improve statistical accuracy, presenting an accuracy-communication trade-off in personalized federated learning. However, the theoretical analysis of how personalization quantitatively influences sample and algorithmic efficiency and their inherent trade-off is largely unexplored. This paper makes a contribution towards filling this gap, by providing a quantitative characterization of the personalization degree on the tradeoff. The results further offers theoretical insights for choosing the personalization degree. As a side contribution, we establish the minimax optimality in terms of statistical accuracy for a widely studied PFL formulation. The theoretical result is validated on both synthetic and real-world datasets and its generalizability is verified in a non-convex setting.

Haochen Zhang, Zhong Zheng, Lingzhou Xue

Motivated by real-world settings where data collection and policy deployment -- whether for a single agent or across multiple agents -- are costly, we study the problem of on-policy single-agent reinforcement learning (RL) and federated RL (FRL) with a focus on minimizing burn-in costs (the sample sizes needed to reach near-optimal regret) and policy switching or communication costs. In parallel finite-horizon episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with $S$ states and $A$ actions, existing methods either require superlinear burn-in costs in $S$ and $A$ or fail to achieve logarithmic switching or communication costs. We propose two novel model-free RL algorithms -- Q-EarlySettled-LowCost and FedQ-EarlySettled-LowCost -- that are the first in the literature to simultaneously achieve: (i) the best near-optimal regret among all known model-free RL or FRL algorithms, (ii) low burn-in cost that scales linearly with $S$ and $A$, and (iii) logarithmic policy switching cost for single-agent RL or communication cost for FRL. Additionally, we establish gap-dependent theoretical guarantees for both regret and switching/communication costs, improving or matching the best-known gap-dependent bounds.

Xin Yu, Yujia Wang, Jinghui Chen et al.

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) has emerged as an effective technique for reducing memory overhead in fine-tuning large language models. However, it often suffers from sub-optimal performance compared with full fine-tuning since the update is constrained in the low-rank space. Recent variants such as LoRA-Pro attempt to mitigate this by adjusting the gradients of the low-rank matrices to approximate the full gradient. However, LoRA-Pro's solution is not unique, and different solutions can lead to significantly varying performance in ablation studies. Besides, to incorporate momentum or adaptive optimization design, approaches like LoRA-Pro must first compute the equivalent gradient, causing a higher memory cost close to full fine-tuning. A key challenge remains in integrating momentum properly into the low-rank space with lower memory cost. In this work, we propose AltLoRA, an alternating projection method that avoids the difficulties in gradient approximation brought by the joint update design, meanwhile integrating momentum without higher memory complexity. Our theoretical analysis provides convergence guarantees and further shows that AltLoRA enables stable feature learning and robustness to transformation invariance. Extensive experiments across multiple tasks demonstrate that AltLoRA outperforms LoRA and its variants, narrowing the gap toward full fine-tuning while preserving superior memory efficiency.

Haochen Zhang, Zhong Zheng, Lingzhou Xue

We study fine-grained gap-dependent regret bounds for model-free reinforcement learning in episodic tabular Markov Decision Processes. Existing model-free algorithms achieve minimax worst-case regret, but their gap-dependent bounds remain coarse and fail to fully capture the structure of suboptimality gaps. We address this limitation by establishing fine-grained gap-dependent regret bounds for both UCB-based and non-UCB-based algorithms. In the UCB-based setting, we develop a novel analytical framework that explicitly separates the analysis of optimal and suboptimal state-action pairs, yielding the first fine-grained regret upper bound for UCB-Hoeffding (Jin et al., 2018). To highlight the generality of this framework, we introduce ULCB-Hoeffding, a new UCB-based algorithm inspired by AMB (Xu et al.,2021) but with a simplified structure, which enjoys fine-grained regret guarantees and empirically outperforms AMB. In the non-UCB-based setting, we revisit the only known algorithm AMB, and identify two key issues in its algorithm design and analysis: improper truncation in the $Q$-updates and violation of the martingale difference condition in its concentration argument. We propose a refined version of AMB that addresses these issues, establishing the first rigorous fine-grained gap-dependent regret for a non-UCB-based method, with experiments demonstrating improved performance over AMB.

Xin Yu, Cong Xie, Ziyu Zhao et al.

Low-rank adaptation (LoRA) has become a widely used paradigm for parameter-efficient fine-tuning of large language models, yet its representational capacity often lags behind full fine-tuning. Within the context of LoRA, a key open question is how to obtain expressive low-rank adapters from over-parameterized spaces. We propose \textit{PrunedLoRA}, a new framework that leverages structured pruning to obtain highly representative low-rank adapters from an over-parameterized initialization. Unlike prior approaches that impose a fixed low-rank budget, PrunedLoRA dynamically prunes less important components during fine-tuning and prevents their reactivation, enabling flexible and adaptive rank allocation. For structured pruning, by minimizing the pruning error for overall loss, we provide fine-grained pruning and recovery updates in a gradient-based pruning strategy with grounded interpretation. We provide the first theoretical analysis of the robustness of structured pruning and provably show that under the impact of weight perturbation, gradient-based pruning is more robust than activation-based pruning with respect to overall loss. Empirically, PrunedLoRA consistently outperforms LoRA and its variants across supervised fine-tuning tasks in mathematical reasoning, code generation, and natural language understanding, and it also demonstrates advantages over existing structured pruning methods across diverse sparsity levels.

Qi Zhang, Bing Li, Lingzhou Xue

Motivated by modern data forms such as images and multi-view data, the multi-attribute graphical model aims to explore the conditional independence structure among vectors. Under the Gaussian assumption, the conditional independence between vectors is characterized by blockwise zeros in the precision matrix. To relax the restrictive Gaussian assumption, in this paper, we introduce a novel semiparametric multi-attribute graphical model based on a new copula named Cyclically Monotone Copula. This new copula treats the distribution of the node vectors as multivariate marginals and transforms them into Gaussian distributions based on the optimal transport theory. Since the model allows the node vectors to have arbitrary continuous distributions, it is more flexible than the classical Gaussian copula method that performs coordinatewise Gaussianization. We establish the concentration inequalities of the estimated covariance matrices and provide sufficient conditions for selection consistency of the group graphical lasso estimator. For the setting with high-dimensional attributes, a {Projected Cyclically Monotone Copula} model is proposed to address the curse of dimensionality issue that arises from solving high-dimensional optimal transport problems. Numerical results based on synthetic and real data show the efficiency and flexibility of our methods.

Jun Tao, Bing Li, Lingzhou Xue

We introduce a nonparametric graphical model for discrete node variables based on additive conditional independence. Additive conditional independence is a three way statistical relation that shares similar properties with conditional independence by satisfying the semi-graphoid axioms. Based on this relation we build an additive graphical model for discrete variables that does not suffer from the restriction of a parametric model such as the Ising model. We develop an estimator of the new graphical model via the penalized estimation of the discrete version of the additive precision operator and establish the consistency of the estimator under the ultrahigh-dimensional setting. Along with these methodological developments, we also exploit the properties of discrete random variables to uncover a deeper relation between additive conditional independence and conditional independence than previously known. The new graphical model reduces to a conditional independence graphical model under certain sparsity conditions. We conduct simulation experiments and analysis of an HIV antiretroviral therapy data set to compare the new method with existing ones.

Qi Zhang, Lingzhou Xue, Bing Li

With the rapid development of data collection techniques, complex data objects that are not in the Euclidean space are frequently encountered in new statistical applications. Fréchet regression model (Peterson & Müller 2019) provides a promising framework for regression analysis with metric space-valued responses. In this paper, we introduce a flexible sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) method for Fréchet regression to achieve two purposes: to mitigate the curse of dimensionality caused by high-dimensional predictors and to provide a visual inspection tool for Fréchet regression. Our approach is flexible enough to turn any existing SDR method for Euclidean (X,Y) into one for Euclidean X and metric space-valued Y. The basic idea is to first map the metric-space valued random object $Y$ to a real-valued random variable $f(Y)$ using a class of functions, and then perform classical SDR to the transformed data. If the class of functions is sufficiently rich, then we are guaranteed to uncover the Fréchet SDR space. We showed that such a class, which we call an ensemble, can be generated by a universal kernel. We established the consistency and asymptotic convergence rate of the proposed methods. The finite-sample performance of the proposed methods is illustrated through simulation studies for several commonly encountered metric spaces that include Wasserstein space, the space of symmetric positive definite matrices, and the sphere. We illustrated the data visualization aspect of our method by exploring the human mortality distribution data across countries and by studying the distribution of hematoma density.

Bingyuan Liu, Qi Zhang, Lingzhou Xue et al.

It is of importance to develop statistical techniques to analyze high-dimensional data in the presence of both complex dependence and possible outliers in real-world applications such as imaging data analyses. We propose a new robust high-dimensional regression with coefficient thresholding, in which an efficient nonconvex estimation procedure is proposed through a thresholding function and the robust Huber loss. The proposed regularization method accounts for complex dependence structures in predictors and is robust against outliers in outcomes. Theoretically, we analyze rigorously the landscape of the population and empirical risk functions for the proposed method. The fine landscape enables us to establish both {statistical consistency and computational convergence} under the high-dimensional setting. The finite-sample properties of the proposed method are examined by extensive simulation studies. An illustration of real-world application concerns a scalar-on-image regression analysis for an association of psychiatric disorder measured by the general factor of psychopathology with features extracted from the task functional magnetic resonance imaging data in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development study.

Bingyuan Liu, Christopher Malon, Lingzhou Xue et al.

Robustness against adversarial attack in neural networks is an important research topic in the machine learning community. We observe one major source of vulnerability of neural nets is from overparameterized fully-connected layers. In this paper, we propose a new neighborhood preserving layer which can replace these fully connected layers to improve the network robustness. We demonstrate a novel neural network architecture which can incorporate such layers and also can be trained efficiently. We theoretically prove that our models are more robust against distortion because they effectively control the magnitude of gradients. Finally, we empirically show that our designed network architecture is more robust against state-of-art gradient descent based attacks, such as a PGD attack on the benchmark datasets MNIST and CIFAR10.

Zhongruo Wang, Bingyuan Liu, Shixiang Chen et al.

Spectral clustering is one of the fundamental unsupervised learning methods widely used in data analysis. Sparse spectral clustering (SSC) imposes sparsity to the spectral clustering and it improves the interpretability of the model. This paper considers a widely adopted model for SSC, which can be formulated as an optimization problem over the Stiefel manifold with nonsmooth and nonconvex objective. Such an optimization problem is very challenging to solve. Existing methods usually solve its convex relaxation or need to smooth its nonsmooth part using certain smoothing techniques. In this paper, we propose a manifold proximal linear method (ManPL) that solves the original SSC formulation. We also extend the algorithm to solve the multiple-kernel SSC problems, for which an alternating ManPL algorithm is proposed. Convergence and iteration complexity results of the proposed methods are established. We demonstrate the advantage of our proposed methods over existing methods via the single-cell RNA sequencing data analysis.

Xiufan Yu, Danning Li, Lingzhou Xue

Testing large covariance matrices is of fundamental importance in statistical analysis with high-dimensional data. In the past decade, three types of test statistics have been studied in the literature: quadratic form statistics, maximum form statistics, and their weighted combination. It is known that quadratic form statistics would suffer from low power against sparse alternatives and maximum form statistics would suffer from low power against dense alternatives. The weighted combination methods were introduced to enhance the power of quadratic form statistics or maximum form statistics when the weights are appropriately chosen. In this paper, we provide a new perspective to exploit the full potential of quadratic form statistics and maximum form statistics for testing high-dimensional covariance matrices. We propose a scale-invariant power enhancement test based on Fisher's method to combine the p-values of quadratic form statistics and maximum form statistics. After carefully studying the asymptotic joint distribution of quadratic form statistics and maximum form statistics, we prove that the proposed combination method retains the correct asymptotic size and boosts the power against more general alternatives. Moreover, we demonstrate the finite-sample performance in simulation studies and a real application.

Bokun Wang, Shiqian Ma, Lingzhou Xue

Riemannian optimization has drawn a lot of attention due to its wide applications in practice. Riemannian stochastic first-order algorithms have been studied in the literature to solve large-scale machine learning problems over Riemannian manifolds. However, most of the existing Riemannian stochastic algorithms require the objective function to be differentiable, and they do not apply to the case where the objective function is nonsmooth. In this paper, we present two Riemannian stochastic proximal gradient methods for minimizing nonsmooth function over the Stiefel manifold. The two methods, named R-ProxSGD and R-ProxSPB, are generalizations of proximal SGD and proximal SpiderBoost in Euclidean setting to the Riemannian setting. Analysis on the incremental first-order oracle (IFO) complexity of the proposed algorithms is provided. Specifically, the R-ProxSPB algorithm finds an $ε$-stationary point with $Ø(ε^{-3})$ IFOs in the online case, and $Ø(n+\sqrt{n}ε^{-2})$ IFOs in the finite-sum case with $n$ being the number of summands in the objective. Experimental results on online sparse PCA and robust low-rank matrix completion show that our proposed methods significantly outperform the existing methods that use Riemannian subgradient information.

Shixiang Chen, Shiqian Ma, Lingzhou Xue et al.

Sparse principal component analysis (PCA) and sparse canonical correlation analysis (CCA) are two essential techniques from high-dimensional statistics and machine learning for analyzing large-scale data. Both problems can be formulated as an optimization problem with nonsmooth objective and nonconvex constraints. Since non-smoothness and nonconvexity bring numerical difficulties, most algorithms suggested in the literature either solve some relaxations or are heuristic and lack convergence guarantees. In this paper, we propose a new alternating manifold proximal gradient method to solve these two high-dimensional problems and provide a unified convergence analysis. Numerical experiment results are reported to demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm.

Amal Agarwal, Lingzhou Xue

Water pollution is a major global environmental problem, and it poses a great environmental risk to public health and biological diversity. This work is motivated by assessing the potential environmental threat of coal mining through increased sulfate concentrations in river networks, which do not belong to any simple parametric distribution. However, existing network models mainly focus on binary or discrete networks and weighted networks with known parametric weight distributions. We propose a principled nonparametric weighted network model based on exponential-family random graph models and local likelihood estimation and study its model-based clustering with application to large-scale water pollution network analysis. We do not require any parametric distribution assumption on network weights. The proposed method greatly extends the methodology and applicability of statistical network models. Furthermore, it is scalable to large and complex networks in large-scale environmental studies. The power of our proposed methods is demonstrated in simulation studies and a real application to sulfate pollution network analysis in Ohio watershed located in Pennsylvania, United States.

Kevin H. Lee, Lingzhou Xue, David R. Hunter

Dynamic networks are a general language for describing time-evolving complex systems, and discrete time network models provide an emerging statistical technique for various applications. It is a fundamental research question to detect the community structure in time-evolving networks. However, due to significant computational challenges and difficulties in modeling communities of time-evolving networks, there is little progress in the current literature to effectively find communities in time-evolving networks. In this work, we propose a novel model-based clustering framework for time-evolving networks based on discrete time exponential-family random graph models. To choose the number of communities, we use conditional likelihood to construct an effective model selection criterion. Furthermore, we propose an efficient variational expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to find approximate maximum likelihood estimates of network parameters and mixing proportions. By using variational methods and minorization-maximization (MM) techniques, our method has appealing scalability for large-scale time-evolving networks. The power of our method is demonstrated in simulation studies and empirical applications to international trade networks and the collaboration networks of a large American research university.

Wei Luo, Lingzhou Xue, Jiawei Yao et al.

We consider forecasting a single time series using a large number of predictors in the presence of a possible nonlinear forecast function. Assuming that the predictors affect the response through the latent factors, we propose to first conduct factor analysis and then apply sufficient dimension reduction on the estimated factors, to derive the reduced data for subsequent forecasting. Using directional regression and the inverse third-moment method in the stage of sufficient dimension reduction, the proposed methods can capture the non-monotone effect of factors on the response. We also allow a diverging number of factors and only impose general regularity conditions on the distribution of factors, avoiding the undesired time reversibility of the factors by the latter. These make the proposed methods fundamentally more applicable than the sufficient forecasting method in Fan et al. (2017). The proposed methods are demonstrated in both simulation studies and an empirical study of forecasting monthly macroeconomic data from 1959 to 2016. Also, our theory contributes to the literature of sufficient dimension reduction, as it includes an invariance result, a path to perform sufficient dimension reduction under the high-dimensional setting without assuming sparsity, and the corresponding order-determination procedure.

Kevin Lee, Lingzhou Xue

Graphical model has been widely used to investigate the complex dependence structure of high-dimensional data, and it is common to assume that observed data follow a homogeneous graphical model. However, observations usually come from different resources and have heterogeneous hidden commonality in real-world applications. Thus, it is of great importance to estimate heterogeneous dependencies and discover subpopulation with certain commonality across the whole population. In this work, we introduce a novel regularized estimation scheme for learning nonparametric mixture of Gaussian graphical models, which extends the methodology and applicability of Gaussian graphical models and mixture models. We propose a unified penalized likelihood approach to effectively estimate nonparametric functional parameters and heterogeneous graphical parameters. We further design an efficient generalized effective EM algorithm to address three significant challenges: high-dimensionality, non-convexity, and label switching. Theoretically, we study both the algorithmic convergence of our proposed algorithm and the asymptotic properties of our proposed estimators. Numerically, we demonstrate the performance of our method in simulation studies and a real application to estimate human brain functional connectivity from ADHD imaging data, where two heterogeneous conditional dependencies are explained through profiling demographic variables and supported by existing scientific findings.

Danning Li, Lingzhou Xue

Testing independence is of significant interest in many important areas of large-scale inference. Using extreme-value form statistics to test against sparse alternatives and using quadratic form statistics to test against dense alternatives are two important testing procedures for high-dimensional independence. However, quadratic form statistics suffer from low power against sparse alternatives, and extreme-value form statistics suffer from low power against dense alternatives with small disturbances and may have size distortions due to its slow convergence. For real-world applications, it is important to derive powerful testing procedures against more general alternatives. Based on intermediate limiting distributions, we derive (model-free) joint limiting laws of extreme-value form and quadratic form statistics, and surprisingly, we prove that they are asymptotically independent. Given such asymptotic independencies, we propose (model-free) testing procedures to boost the power against general alternatives and also retain the correct asymptotic size. Under the high-dimensional setting, we derive the closed-form limiting null distributions, and obtain their explicit rates of uniform convergence. We prove their consistent statistical powers against general alternatives. We demonstrate the performance of our proposed test statistics in simulation studies. Our work provides very helpful insights to high-dimensional independence tests, and fills an important gap.

Jianqing Fan, Lingzhou Xue, Jiawei Yao

We consider forecasting a single time series when there is a large number of predictors and a possible nonlinear effect. The dimensionality was first reduced via a high-dimensional (approximate) factor model implemented by the principal component analysis. Using the extracted factors, we develop a novel forecasting method called the sufficient forecasting, which provides a set of sufficient predictive indices, inferred from high-dimensional predictors, to deliver additional predictive power. The projected principal component analysis will be employed to enhance the accuracy of inferred factors when a semi-parametric (approximate) factor model is assumed. Our method is also applicable to cross-sectional sufficient regression using extracted factors. The connection between the sufficient forecasting and the deep learning architecture is explicitly stated. The sufficient forecasting correctly estimates projection indices of the underlying factors even in the presence of a nonparametric forecasting function. The proposed method extends the sufficient dimension reduction to high-dimensional regimes by condensing the cross-sectional information through factor models. We derive asymptotic properties for the estimate of the central subspace spanned by these projection directions as well as the estimates of the sufficient predictive indices. We further show that the natural method of running multiple regression of target on estimated factors yields a linear estimate that actually falls into this central subspace. Our method and theory allow the number of predictors to be larger than the number of observations. We finally demonstrate that the sufficient forecasting improves upon the linear forecasting in both simulation studies and an empirical study of forecasting macroeconomic variables.

Jianqing Fan, Lingzhou Xue, Hui Zou

Folded concave penalization methods have been shown to enjoy the strong oracle property for high-dimensional sparse estimation. However, a folded concave penalization problem usually has multiple local solutions and the oracle property is established only for one of the unknown local solutions. A challenging fundamental issue still remains that it is not clear whether the local optimum computed by a given optimization algorithm possesses those nice theoretical properties. To close this important theoretical gap in over a decade, we provide a unified theory to show explicitly how to obtain the oracle solution via the local linear approximation algorithm. For a folded concave penalized estimation problem, we show that as long as the problem is localizable and the oracle estimator is well behaved, we can obtain the oracle estimator by using the one-step local linear approximation. In addition, once the oracle estimator is obtained, the local linear approximation algorithm converges, namely it produces the same estimator in the next iteration. The general theory is demonstrated by using four classical sparse estimation problems, that is, sparse linear regression, sparse logistic regression, sparse precision matrix estimation and sparse quantile regression.

Shiqian Ma, Lingzhou Xue, Hui Zou

Chandrasekaran, Parrilo and Willsky (2010) proposed a convex optimization problem to characterize graphical model selection in the presence of unobserved variables. This convex optimization problem aims to estimate an inverse covariance matrix that can be decomposed into a sparse matrix minus a low-rank matrix from sample data. Solving this convex optimization problem is very challenging, especially for large problems. In this paper, we propose two alternating direction methods for solving this problem. The first method is to apply the classical alternating direction method of multipliers to solve the problem as a consensus problem. The second method is a proximal gradient based alternating direction method of multipliers. Our methods exploit and take advantage of the special structure of the problem and thus can solve large problems very efficiently. Global convergence result is established for the proposed methods. Numerical results on both synthetic data and gene expression data show that our methods usually solve problems with one million variables in one to two minutes, and are usually five to thirty five times faster than a state-of-the-art Newton-CG proximal point algorithm.