Dominic Dayta

Hans Jarett J. Ong, Brian Godwin S. Lim, Dominic Dayta et al.

Unsupervised representation learning seeks to recover latent generative factors, yet standard methods relying on statistical independence often fail to capture causal dependencies. A central challenge is identifiability: as established in disentangled representation learning and nonlinear ICA literature, disentangling causal variables from observational data is impossible without supervision, auxiliary signals, or strong inductive biases. In this work, we propose the Latent Additive Noise Model Causal Autoencoder (LANCA) to operationalize the Additive Noise Model (ANM) as a strong inductive bias for unsupervised discovery. Theoretically, we prove that while the ANM constraint does not guarantee unique identifiability in the general mixing case, it resolves component-wise indeterminacy by restricting the admissible transformations from arbitrary diffeomorphisms to the affine class. Methodologically, arguing that the stochastic encoding inherent to VAEs obscures the structural residuals required for latent causal discovery, LANCA employs a deterministic Wasserstein Auto-Encoder (WAE) coupled with a differentiable ANM Layer. This architecture transforms residual independence from a passive assumption into an explicit optimization objective. Empirically, LANCA outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on synthetic physics benchmarks (Pendulum, Flow), and on photorealistic environments (CANDLE), where it demonstrates superior robustness to spurious correlations arising from complex background scenes.

Brian Godwin Lim, Dominic Dayta, Benedict Ryan Tiu et al.

The intricate dynamics of stock markets have led to extensive research on models that are able to effectively explain their inherent complexities. This study leverages the econometrics literature to explore the dynamic factor model as an interpretable model with sufficient predictive capabilities for capturing essential market phenomena. Although the model has been extensively applied for predictive purposes, this study focuses on analyzing the extracted loadings and common factors as an alternative framework for understanding stock price dynamics. The results reveal novel insights into traditional market theories when applied to the Philippine Stock Exchange using the Kalman method and maximum likelihood estimation, with subsequent validation against the capital asset pricing model. Notably, a one-factor model extracts a common factor representing systematic or market dynamics similar to the composite index, whereas a two-factor model extracts common factors representing market trends and volatility. Furthermore, an application of the model for nowcasting the growth rates of the Philippine gross domestic product highlights the potential of the extracted common factors as viable real-time market indicators, yielding over a 34% decrease in the out-of-sample prediction error. Overall, the results underscore the value of dynamic factor analysis in gaining a deeper understanding of market price movement dynamics.