Yanguang Liu

Yidong Chai, Yanguang Liu, Xuan Tian et al.

We study investor learning and information acquisition in private markets using a large dataset of expert network calls. We develop a sequential Large Language Model (LLM)-Bayesian framework that treats expert interactions as sequential signals and recovers time-varying beliefs about firm success and associated uncertainty from unstructured conversations, providing a measurement system for how qualitative information is aggregated into investment expectations. We show that expert network calls contain decision-relevant information: a single call increases subsequent investment probability by 6.9 to 9.0 percentage points, while positive sentiment raises deal likelihood by 3.9 to 4.1 percentage points. Informativeness varies across topics and environments: discussions of technology adoption and customer acquisition increase deal probability by up to 14.7 percentage points, particularly in high-uncertainty settings. Information is asymmetric across horizons, with positive signals predicting short-term investment decisions and negative signals more informative about long-run firm performance. Consistent with a belief-based mechanism, investment decisions respond to inferred beliefs rather than raw signals. A one standard deviation increase in success belief raises deal probability by approximately 11 percentage points, while reductions in uncertainty further increase investment likelihood. Our framework improves capital allocation, increasing portfolio returns by 15.26% and F1 by 6.69%, with gains concentrated in the upper tail. Attention and ablation analyses show that conversational cues are particularly informative for technologically complex startups, young firms, diverse founding teams, and firms with low public visibility, where information frictions are severe.

Weiqi Liu, Yongliang Miao, Haiyan Zhao et al.

Neuron-level interpretation in large language models (LLMs) is fundamentally challenged by widespread polysemanticity, where individual neurons respond to multiple distinct semantic concepts. Existing single-pass interpretation methods struggle to faithfully capture such multi-concept behavior. In this work, we propose NeuronScope, a multi-agent framework that reformulates neuron interpretation as an iterative, activation-guided process. NeuronScope explicitly deconstructs neuron activations into atomic semantic components, clusters them into distinct semantic modes, and iteratively refines each explanation using neuron activation feedback. Experiments demonstrate that NeuronScope uncovers hidden polysemanticity and produces explanations with significantly higher activation correlation compared to single-pass baselines.

Zirui He, Huopu Zhang, Yanguang Liu et al.

Financial prediction from long documents involves significant challenges, as actionable signals are often sparse and obscured by noise, and the optimal LLM for generating embeddings varies across tasks and time periods. In this paper, we propose FinAnchor(Financial Anchored Representations), a lightweight framework that integrates embeddings from multiple LLMs without fine-tuning the underlying models. FinAnchor addresses the incompatibility of feature spaces by selecting an anchor embedding space and learning linear mappings to align representations from other models into this anchor. These aligned features are then aggregated to form a unified representation for downstream prediction. Across multiple financial NLP tasks, FinAnchor consistently outperforms strong single-model baselines and standard ensemble methods, demonstrating the effectiveness of anchoring heterogeneous representations for robust financial prediction.