Tian Qin

Rachit Bansal, Clara Mohri, Tian Qin et al.

The standard LLM training pipeline applies reinforcement learning (RL) only after pre-training and supervised fine-tuning (SFT). We question this status quo by training a LLM from scratch and applying RL, SFT, and SFT followed by RL directly to intermediate pre-training checkpoints. We find that RL is effective very early, and often matches the full SFT$\to$RL pipeline early as well. Through experiments on harder problems, we find that targeted pre-training data composition is a strong lever for RL effectiveness, even more so than model scale. Beyond reasoning accuracy, applying RL directly to base checkpoints expands the model's distribution; the sharpening effect reported in recent work arises only when RL follows SFT. The general capabilities of the model remain essentially unchanged by RL, while they degrade following SFT. Finally, we merge RL and SFT objectives by parallel averaging, which outperforms across all other training methods discussed, across metrics, while preserving general capabilities. Together, these results suggest that LLM training might benefit from an expanded use of RL.

Tian Qin, Fengxiang He, Dingfeng Shi et al.

Designing an incentive-compatible auction mechanism that maximizes the auctioneer's revenue while minimizes the bidders' ex-post regret is an important yet intricate problem in economics. Remarkable progress has been achieved through learning the optimal auction mechanism by neural networks. In this paper, we consider the popular additive valuation and symmetric valuation setting; i.e., the valuation for a set of items is defined as the sum of all items' valuations in the set, and the valuation distribution is invariant when the bidders and/or the items are permutated. We prove that permutation-equivariant neural networks have significant advantages: the permutation-equivariance decreases the expected ex-post regret, improves the model generalizability, while maintains the expected revenue invariant. This implies that the permutation-equivariance helps approach the theoretically optimal dominant strategy incentive compatible condition, and reduces the required sample complexity for desired generalization. Extensive experiments fully support our theory. To our best knowledge, this is the first work towards understanding the benefits of permutation-equivariance in auction mechanisms.

Tian Qin, Alex Beatson, Deniz Oktay et al.

Partial differential equations (PDEs) are often computationally challenging to solve, and in many settings many related PDEs must be be solved either at every timestep or for a variety of candidate boundary conditions, parameters, or geometric domains. We present a meta-learning based method which learns to rapidly solve problems from a distribution of related PDEs. We use meta-learning (MAML and LEAP) to identify initializations for a neural network representation of the PDE solution such that a residual of the PDE can be quickly minimized on a novel task. We apply our meta-solving approach to a nonlinear Poisson's equation, 1D Burgers' equation, and hyperelasticity equations with varying parameters, geometries, and boundary conditions. The resulting Meta-PDE method finds qualitatively accurate solutions to most problems within a few gradient steps; for the nonlinear Poisson and hyper-elasticity equation this results in an intermediate accuracy approximation up to an order of magnitude faster than a baseline finite element analysis (FEA) solver with equivalent accuracy. In comparison to other learned solvers and surrogate models, this meta-learning approach can be trained without supervision from expensive ground-truth data, does not require a mesh, and can even be used when the geometry and topology varies between tasks.

Chen Zhao, Kuan-Jui Su, Chong Wu et al.

Background: Missing data is a common challenge in mass spectrometry-based metabolomics, which can lead to biased and incomplete analyses. The integration of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data with metabolomics data has emerged as a promising approach to enhance the accuracy of data imputation in metabolomics studies. Method: In this study, we propose a novel method that leverages the information from WGS data and reference metabolites to impute unknown metabolites. Our approach utilizes a multi-view variational autoencoder to jointly model the burden score, polygenetic risk score (PGS), and linkage disequilibrium (LD) pruned single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for feature extraction and missing metabolomics data imputation. By learning the latent representations of both omics data, our method can effectively impute missing metabolomics values based on genomic information. Results: We evaluate the performance of our method on empirical metabolomics datasets with missing values and demonstrate its superiority compared to conventional imputation techniques. Using 35 template metabolites derived burden scores, PGS and LD-pruned SNPs, the proposed methods achieved R^2-scores > 0.01 for 71.55% of metabolites. Conclusion: The integration of WGS data in metabolomics imputation not only improves data completeness but also enhances downstream analyses, paving the way for more comprehensive and accurate investigations of metabolic pathways and disease associations. Our findings offer valuable insights into the potential benefits of utilizing WGS data for metabolomics data imputation and underscore the importance of leveraging multi-modal data integration in precision medicine research.

Yuzhu Chen, Tian Qin, Xinmei Tian et al.

Equivariant neural networks encode symmetry as an inductive bias and have achieved strong empirical performance in wide domains. However, their expressive power remains not well understood. Focusing on 2-layer ReLU networks, this paper investigates the impact of equivariance constraints on the expressivity of equivariant and layer-wise equivariant networks. By examining the boundary hyperplanes and the channel vectors of ReLU networks, we construct an example showing that equivariance constraints could strictly limit expressive power. However, we demonstrate that this drawback can be compensated via enlarging the model size. Furthermore, we show that despite a larger model size, the resulting architecture could still correspond to a hypothesis space with lower complexity, implying superior generalizability for equivariant networks.

Zhiyang Xu, Tian Qin, Bowen Jin et al.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have recently shown strong performance in visual understanding, yet they often lack temporal awareness, particularly in egocentric settings where reasoning depends on the correct ordering and evolution of events. This deficiency stems in part from training objectives that fail to explicitly reward temporal reasoning and instead rely on frame-level spatial shortcuts. To address this limitation, we propose Temporal Global Policy Optimization (TGPO), a reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) algorithm designed to incentivize temporal awareness in MLLMs. TGPO contrasts model outputs generated from temporally ordered versus shuffled video frames to derive calibrated, globally normalized reward signals that explicitly favor temporally coherent reasoning. Integrated with GRPO and GSPO, TGPO supports cold-start RL training and effectively suppresses spatial shortcut behaviors learned by existing MLLMs. Experiments across five egocentric video benchmarks demonstrate that TGPO consistently improves temporal grounding and causal coherence, outperforming prior RL-based video reasoning approaches. Our results suggest that TGPO offers a simple and scalable pathway toward temporally robust MLLMs for egocentric video understanding.

Bowen Jin, TJ Collins, Donghan Yu et al.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit complementary strengths across domains and come with varying inference costs, motivating the design of multi-agent LLM systems where specialized models collaborate efficiently. Existing approaches predominantly rely on decentralized frameworks, which invoke multiple LLMs for every input and thus lead to substantial and uncontrolled inference costs. In this work, we introduce a centralized multi-LLM framework, where a controller LLM selectively coordinates a pool of expert models in a cost-efficient and cost-controllable manner. We formulate this coordination problem as reinforcement learning with dual objectives: maximizing task performance while minimizing the overall inference cost. In addition, we expect the multi-agent system to have adapted behavior with different budget conditions during inference. To this end, we propose CoRL, a reinforcement learning framework that optimizes the performance cost trade-off in a controllable multi-budget setting. Experiments on four diverse benchmarks demonstrate that CoRL enables a single system to surpass the best expert LLM under high-budget settings, while maintaining strong performance in more economical low-budget modes, highlighting the effectiveness of centralized coordination for scalable and cost-efficient multi-agent LLM systems.

Tian Qin, Junzhe Chen, Yuqing Shi et al.

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) often hallucinate when language priors dominate weak or ambiguous visual evidence. Existing contrastive decoding methods mitigate this problem by comparing predictions from the original image with those from externally perturbed visual inputs, but such references can introduce off-manifold artifacts and require costly extra forward passes. We propose SIRA, a training-free internal contrastive decoding framework that constructs a counterfactual reference inside the same LVLM by exploiting the staged information flow of multimodal transformers. Instead of removing visual information from the input, SIRA first lets image and text tokens interact through a shared prefix, forming an aligned multimodal state that preserves prompt interpretation, decoding history, positional structure, and early visual grounding. It then forks a counterfactual branch in later transformer layers, where attention to image-token positions is masked. This branch retains the shared multimodal context but lacks continued access to fine-grained visual evidence, yielding a language-prior-dominated internal reference for token-level contrast. During decoding, SIRA suppresses tokens that remain strong without late visual access and favors predictions whose advantage depends on the full visual pathway. Experiments on POPE, CHAIR, and AMBER with Qwen2.5-VL and LLaVA-v1.5 show that SIRA consistently reduces hallucinations while preserving descriptive coverage and incurring lower overhead than two-pass contrastive decoding. SIRA requires no training, external verifier, or perturbed input, and applies to open-weight LVLMs with white-box inference access.

Tian Qin, Core Francisco Park, Mujin Kwun et al.

Mathematical reasoning tasks have become prominent benchmarks for assessing the reasoning capabilities of LLMs, especially with reinforcement learning (RL) methods such as GRPO showing significant performance gains. However, accuracy metrics alone do not support fine-grained assessment of capabilities and fail to reveal which problem-solving skills have been internalized. To better understand these capabilities, we propose to decompose problem solving into fundamental capabilities: Plan (mapping questions to sequences of steps), Execute (correctly performing solution steps), and Verify (identifying the correctness of a solution). Empirically, we find that GRPO mainly enhances the execution skill-improving execution robustness on problems the model already knows how to solve-a phenomenon we call temperature distillation. More importantly, we show that RL-trained models struggle with fundamentally new problems, hitting a 'coverage wall' due to insufficient planning skills. To explore RL's impact more deeply, we construct a minimal, synthetic solution-tree navigation task as an analogy for mathematical problem-solving. This controlled setup replicates our empirical findings, confirming RL primarily boosts execution robustness. Importantly, in this setting, we identify conditions under which RL can potentially overcome the coverage wall through improved exploration and generalization to new solution paths. Our findings provide insights into the role of RL in enhancing LLM reasoning, expose key limitations, and suggest a path toward overcoming these barriers. Code is available at https://github.com/cfpark00/RL-Wall.

Tian Qin, Felix Bai, Ting-Yao Hu et al.

Real-world large language model (LLM) agents must master strategic tool use and user preference optimization through multi-turn interactions to assist users with complex planning tasks. We introduce COMPASS (Constrained Optimization through Multi-turn Planning and Strategic Solutions), a benchmark that evaluates agents on realistic travel-planning scenarios. We cast travel planning as a constrained preference optimization problem, where agents must satisfy hard constraints while simultaneously optimizing soft user preferences. To support this, we build a realistic travel database covering transportation, accommodation, and ticketing for 20 U.S. National Parks, along with a comprehensive tool ecosystem that mirrors commercial booking platforms. Evaluating state-of-the-art models, we uncover two critical gaps: (i) an acceptable-optimal gap, where agents reliably meet constraints but fail to optimize preferences, and (ii) a plan-coordination gap, where performance collapses on multi-service (flight and hotel) coordination tasks, especially for open-source models. By grounding reasoning and planning in a practical, user-facing domain, COMPASS provides a benchmark that directly measures an agent's ability to optimize user preferences in realistic tasks, bridging theoretical advances with real-world impact.

Tian Qin, Zhiwei Deng, David Alvarez-Melis

Data $\textit{quality}$ is a crucial factor in the performance of machine learning models, a principle that dataset distillation methods exploit by compressing training datasets into much smaller counterparts that maintain similar downstream performance. Understanding how and why data distillation methods work is vital not only for improving these methods but also for revealing fundamental characteristics of "good" training data. However, a major challenge in achieving this goal is the observation that distillation approaches, which rely on sophisticated but mostly disparate methods to generate synthetic data, have little in common with each other. In this work, we highlight a largely overlooked aspect common to most of these methods: the use of soft (probabilistic) labels. Through a series of ablation experiments, we study the role of soft labels in depth. Our results reveal that the main factor explaining the performance of state-of-the-art distillation methods is not the specific techniques used to generate synthetic data but rather the use of soft labels. Furthermore, we demonstrate that not all soft labels are created equal; they must contain $\textit{structured information}$ to be beneficial. We also provide empirical scaling laws that characterize the effectiveness of soft labels as a function of images-per-class in the distilled dataset and establish an empirical Pareto frontier for data-efficient learning. Combined, our findings challenge conventional wisdom in dataset distillation, underscore the importance of soft labels in learning, and suggest new directions for improving distillation methods. Code for all experiments is available at https://github.com/sunnytqin/no-distillation.

Gustaf Ahdritz, Tian Qin, Nikhil Vyas et al.

We study the feasibility of identifying epistemic uncertainty (reflecting a lack of knowledge), as opposed to aleatoric uncertainty (reflecting entropy in the underlying distribution), in the outputs of large language models (LLMs) over free-form text. In the absence of ground-truth probabilities, we explore a setting where, in order to (approximately) disentangle a given LLM's uncertainty, a significantly larger model stands in as a proxy for the ground truth. We show that small linear probes trained on the embeddings of frozen, pretrained models accurately predict when larger models will be more confident at the token level and that probes trained on one text domain generalize to others. Going further, we propose a fully unsupervised method that achieves non-trivial accuracy on the same task. Taken together, we interpret these results as evidence that LLMs naturally contain internal representations of different types of uncertainty that could potentially be leveraged to devise more informative indicators of model confidence in diverse practical settings.

Tian Qin, Wei-Min Huang

With the insight of variance-bias decomposition, we design a new hybrid bagging-boosting algorithm named SBPMT for classification problems. For the boosting part of SBPMT, we propose a new tree model called Probit Model Tree (PMT) as base classifiers in AdaBoost procedure. For the bagging part, instead of subsampling from the dataset at each step of boosting, we perform boosted PMTs on each subagged dataset and combine them into a powerful "committee", which can be viewed an incomplete U-statistic. Our theoretical analysis shows that (1) SBPMT is consistent under certain assumptions, (2) Increase the subagging times can reduce the generalization error of SBPMT to some extent and (3) Large number of ProbitBoost iterations in PMT can benefit the performance of SBPMT with fewer steps in the AdaBoost part. Those three properties are verified by a famous simulation designed by Mease and Wyner (2008). The last two points also provide a useful guidance in model tuning. A comparison of performance with other state-of-the-art classification methods illustrates that the proposed SBPMT algorithm has competitive prediction power in general and performs significantly better in some cases.

Tian Qin, David Alvarez-Melis, Samy Jelassi et al.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have significantly improved their reasoning abilities, particularly through techniques involving search and backtracking. Backtracking naturally scales test-time compute by enabling sequential, linearized exploration via long chain-of-thought (CoT) generation. However, this is not the only strategy for scaling test time-compute: parallel sampling with best-of-N selection provides an alternative that generates diverse solutions simultaneously. Despite the growing adoption of sequential search, its advantages over parallel sampling-especially under a fixed compute budget-remain poorly understood. In this paper, we systematically compare these two approaches on two challenging reasoning tasks: CountDown and Sudoku. Surprisingly, we find that sequential search underperforms parallel sampling on CountDown but outperforms it on Sudoku, suggesting that backtracking is not universally beneficial. We identify two factors that can cause backtracking to degrade performance: (1) training on fixed search traces can lock models intro suboptimal strategies, and (2) explicit CoT supervision can discourage implicit (non verbalized) reasoning. Extending our analysis to reinforcement learning (RL), we show that models with backtracking capabilities benefit significantly from RL fine-tuning, while models without backtracking see limited, mixed gains. Together, these findings challenge the assumption that backtracking universally enhances LLM reasoning, instead revealing a complex interaction between task structure, training data, model scale, and learning paradigm.

Tian Qin, Naomi Saphra, David Alvarez-Melis

Early in training, LMs can behave like n-gram models, but eventually they often learn tree-based syntactic rules and generalize hierarchically out of distribution (OOD). We study this shift using controlled grammar-learning tasks: question formation and tense inflection. We find that a model learns to generalize hierarchically if its training data is _complex_-in particular, if it includes center-embedded clauses, a special syntactic structure. Under this definition, complex data drives hierarchical rules, while less complex data encourages shortcut learning in the form of n-gram-like linear rules. Furthermore, we find that a model uses rules to generalize, whether hierarchical or linear, if its training data is _diverse_-in particular, if it includes many distinct syntax trees in the training set. Under this definition, diverse data promotes stable rule learning, whereas less diverse data promotes memorization of individual syntactic sequences. Finally, intermediate diversity and intermediate complexity form an *unstable regime*, which is characterized by oscillatory learning dynamics and inconsistent behaviors across random seeds. These results highlight the central role of training data in shaping generalization and explain why competing strategies can lead to unstable outcomes.

Tian Qin, Zhiwei Deng, David Alvarez-Melis · harvard, microsoft-research

What does a neural network learn when training from a task-specific dataset? Synthesizing this knowledge is the central idea behind Dataset Distillation, which recent work has shown can be used to compress large datasets into a small set of input-label pairs ($\textit{prototypes}$) that capture essential aspects of the original dataset. In this paper, we make the key observation that existing methods distilling into explicit prototypes are very often suboptimal, incurring in unexpected storage cost from distilled labels. In response, we propose $\textit{Distributional Dataset Distillation}$ (D3), which encodes the data using minimal sufficient per-class statistics and paired with a decoder, we distill dataset into a compact distributional representation that is more memory-efficient compared to prototype-based methods. To scale up the process of learning these representations, we propose $\textit{Federated distillation}$, which decomposes the dataset into subsets, distills them in parallel using sub-task experts and then re-aggregates them. We thoroughly evaluate our algorithm on a three-dimensional metric and show that our method achieves state-of-the-art results on TinyImageNet and ImageNet-1K. Specifically, we outperform the prior art by $6.9\%$ on ImageNet-1K under the storage budget of 2 images per class.

Yuyang Zhou, Guang Cheng, Kang Du et al.

The proliferation of UAVs has enabled a wide range of mission-critical applications and is becoming a cornerstone of low-altitude networks, supporting smart cities, emergency response, and more. However, the open wireless environment, dynamic topology, and resource constraints of UAVs expose low-altitude networks to severe DoS threats. Traditional defense approaches, which rely on fixed configurations or centralized decision-making, cannot effectively respond to the rapidly changing conditions in UAV swarm environments. To address these challenges, we propose a novel federated multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (FMADRL)-driven moving target defense (MTD) framework for proactive DoS mitigation in low-altitude networks. Specifically, we design lightweight and coordinated MTD mechanisms, including leader switching, route mutation, and frequency hopping, to disrupt attacker efforts and enhance network resilience. The defense problem is formulated as a multi-agent partially observable Markov decision process, capturing the uncertain nature of UAV swarms under attack. Each UAV is equipped with a policy agent that autonomously selects MTD actions based on partial observations and local experiences. By employing a policy gradient-based algorithm, UAVs collaboratively optimize their policies via reward-weighted aggregation. Extensive simulations demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving up to a 34.6% improvement in attack mitigation rate, a reduction in average recovery time of up to 94.6%, and decreases in energy consumption and defense cost by as much as 29.3% and 98.3%, respectively, under various DoS attack strategies. These results highlight the potential of intelligent, distributed defense mechanisms to protect low-altitude networks, paving the way for reliable and scalable low-altitude economy.

Tian Qin, Wei-Min Huang

In this paper, we bridge Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) and kernel density estimations (KDEs) by approximating the posterior by KDEs and deriving an upper bound of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence in the evidence lower bound (ELBO). The flexibility of KDEs makes the optimization of posteriors in VAEs possible, which not only addresses the limitations of Gaussian latent space in vanilla VAE but also provides a new perspective of estimating the KL-divergence in ELBO. Under appropriate conditions, we show that the Epanechnikov kernel is the optimal choice in minimizing the derived upper bound of KL-divergence asymptotically. Compared with Gaussian kernel, Epanechnikov kernel has compact support which should make the generated sample less noisy and blurry. The implementation of Epanechnikov kernel in ELBO is straightforward as it lies in the "location-scale" family of distributions where the reparametrization tricks can be directly employed. A series of experiments on benchmark datasets such as MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, CIFAR-10 and CelebA further demonstrate the superiority of Epanechnikov Variational Autoenocoder (EVAE) over vanilla VAE in the quality of reconstructed images, as measured by the FID score and Sharpness.

Rosie Zhao, Tian Qin, David Alvarez-Melis et al.

Language models famously improve under a smooth scaling law, but some specific capabilities exhibit sudden breakthroughs in performance. While advocates of "emergence" view breakthroughs as unlocked capabilities, others attribute them to thresholding effects on noncontinuous metrics. We propose that breakthroughs are instead driven by continuous changes in the probability distribution of training outcomes when performance is bimodally distributed across random seeds. In synthetic length generalization tasks, we show that different random seeds can produce either highly linear or emergent scaling trends. We reveal that sharp breakthroughs in metrics are produced by underlying continuous changes in their distribution across seeds. In a case study of inverse scaling, we show that even as the probability of a successful run declines, the average performance of a successful run increases monotonically. We validate our distributional scaling framework on realistic settings by measuring MMLU performance in LM populations. Our observations hold true even under continuous loss metrics, confirming that random variation must be considered when predicting a model's performance from its scale.

Yuanchao Wang, Tian Qin, Eduardo Valle et al.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is critical for deploying image classifiers in safety-sensitive environments, yet existing detectors often struggle when OOD samples are semantically similar to the in-distribution (ID) classes. We present BootOOD, a fully self-supervised OOD detection framework that bootstraps exclusively from ID data and is explicitly designed to handle semantically challenging OOD samples. BootOOD synthesizes pseudo-OOD features through simple transformations of ID representations and leverages Neural Collapse (NC), where ID features cluster tightly around class means with consistent feature norms. Unlike prior approaches that aim to constrain OOD features into subspaces orthogonal to the collapsed ID means, BootOOD introduces a lightweight auxiliary head that performs radius-based classification on feature norms. This design decouples OOD detection from the primary classifier and imposes a relaxed requirement: OOD samples are learned to have smaller feature norms than ID features, which is easier to satisfy when ID and OOD are semantically close. Experiments on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet-200 show that BootOOD outperforms prior post-hoc methods, surpasses training-based methods without outlier exposure, and is competitive with state-of-the-art outlier-exposure approaches while maintaining or improving ID accuracy.

Tian Qin, Yuhan Chen, Zhiwei Wang et al.

Transformers are able to perform reasoning tasks, however the intrinsic mechanism remains widely open. In this paper we propose a set of information propagation rules based on Transformers and utilize symbolic reasoning tasks to theoretically analyze the limit reasoning steps. We show that the limit number of reasoning steps is between $O(3^{L-1})$ and $O(2^{L-1})$ for a model with $L$ attention layers in a single-pass.

Tian Qin, Wei-Min Huang

We propose a novel two-stage framework of generative models named Debiasing Kernel-Based Generative Models (DKGM) with the insights from kernel density estimation (KDE) and stochastic approximation. In the first stage of DKGM, we employ KDE to bypass the obstacles in estimating the density of data without losing too much image quality. One characteristic of KDE is oversmoothing, which makes the generated image blurry. Therefore, in the second stage, we formulate the process of reducing the blurriness of images as a statistical debiasing problem and develop a novel iterative algorithm to improve image quality, which is inspired by the stochastic approximation. Extensive experiments illustrate that the image quality of DKGM on CIFAR10 is comparable to state-of-the-art models such as diffusion models and GAN models. The performance of DKGM on CelebA 128x128 and LSUN (Church) 128x128 is also competitive. We conduct extra experiments to exploit how the bandwidth in KDE affects the sample diversity and debiasing effect of DKGM. The connections between DKGM and score-based models are also discussed.

Tian Qin, Wei-Min Huang

We propose a novel ensemble method called Riemann-Lebesgue Forest (RLF) for regression. The core idea in RLF is to mimic the way how a measurable function can be approximated by partitioning its range into a few intervals. With this idea in mind, we develop a new tree learner named Riemann-Lebesgue Tree (RLT) which has a chance to perform Lebesgue type cutting,i.e splitting the node from response $Y$ at certain non-terminal nodes. We show that the optimal Lebesgue type cutting results in larger variance reduction in response $Y$ than ordinary CART \cite{Breiman1984ClassificationAR} cutting (an analogue of Riemann partition). Such property is beneficial to the ensemble part of RLF. We also generalize the asymptotic normality of RLF under different parameter settings. Two one-dimensional examples are provided to illustrate the flexibility of RLF. The competitive performance of RLF against original random forest \cite{Breiman2001RandomF} is demonstrated by experiments in simulation data and real world datasets.

Yifan Yang, Tian Qin, Yu-Heng Lei

In this paper, we try to predict the winning team of a match in the multiplayer eSports game Dota 2. To address the weaknesses of previous work, we consider more aspects of prior (pre-match) features from individual players' match history, as well as real-time (during-match) features at each minute as the match progresses. We use logistic regression, the proposed Attribute Sequence Model, and their combinations as the prediction models. In a dataset of 78362 matches where 20631 matches contain replay data, our experiments show that adding more aspects of prior features improves accuracy from 58.69% to 71.49%, and introducing real-time features achieves up to 93.73% accuracy when predicting at the 40th minute.