Tiancheng Hu

Beiduo Chen, Tiancheng Hu, Caiqi Zhang et al. · cambridge

Reasoning-tuned LLMs utilizing long Chain-of-Thought (CoT) excel at single-answer tasks, yet their ability to model Human Label Variation--which requires capturing probabilistic ambiguity rather than resolving it--remains underexplored. We investigate this through systematic disentanglement experiments on distribution-based tasks, employing Cross-CoT experiments to isolate the effect of reasoning text from intrinsic model priors. We observe a distinct "decoupled mechanism": while CoT improves distributional alignment, final accuracy is dictated by CoT content (99% variance contribution), whereas distributional ranking is governed by model priors (over 80%). Step-wise analysis further shows that while CoT's influence on accuracy grows monotonically during the reasoning process, distributional structure is largely determined by LLM's intrinsic priors. These findings suggest that long CoT serves as a decisive LLM decision-maker for the top option but fails to function as a granular distribution calibrator for ambiguous tasks.

Caiqi Zhang, Ruihan Yang, Xiaochen Zhu et al.

While confidence estimation is a promising direction for mitigating hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs), current research dominantly focuses on single-turn settings. The dynamics of model confidence in multi-turn conversations, where context accumulates and ambiguity is progressively resolved, remain largely unexplored. Reliable confidence estimation in multi-turn settings is critical for many downstream applications, such as autonomous agents and human-in-the-loop systems. This work presents the first systematic study of confidence estimation in multi-turn interactions, establishing a formal evaluation framework grounded in two key desiderata: per-turn calibration and monotonicity of confidence as more information becomes available. To facilitate this, we introduce novel metrics, including a length-normalized Expected Calibration Error (InfoECE), and a new "Hinter-Guesser" paradigm for generating controlled evaluation datasets. Our experiments reveal that widely-used confidence techniques struggle with calibration and monotonicity in multi-turn dialogues. We propose P(Sufficient), a logit-based probe that achieves comparatively better performance, although the task remains far from solved. Our work provides a foundational methodology for developing more reliable and trustworthy conversational agents.

Junhao Hu, Fangze Li, Mingtao Xu et al.

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate strong capabilities across a wide range of complex tasks and are increasingly deployed at scale, placing significant demands on inference efficiency. Prior work typically decomposes inference into prefill and decode stages, with the decode stage dominating total latency. To reduce time and memory complexity in the decode stage, a line of work introduces sparse-attention algorithms. In this paper, we show, both empirically and theoretically, that sparse attention can paradoxically increase end-to-end complexity: information loss often induces significantly longer sequences, a phenomenon we term ``Less is Less'' (Lil). To mitigate the Lil problem, we propose an early-stopping algorithm that detects the threshold where information loss exceeds information gain during sparse decoding. Our early-stopping algorithm reduces token consumption by up to 90% with a marginal accuracy degradation of less than 2% across reasoning-intensive benchmarks.