Casper Kaae Sønderby

Lasse Espeholt, Shreya Agrawal, Casper Sønderby et al.

The problem of forecasting weather has been scientifically studied for centuries due to its high impact on human lives, transportation, food production and energy management, among others. Current operational forecasting models are based on physics and use supercomputers to simulate the atmosphere to make forecasts hours and days in advance. Better physics-based forecasts require improvements in the models themselves, which can be a substantial scientific challenge, as well as improvements in the underlying resolution, which can be computationally prohibitive. An emerging class of weather models based on neural networks represents a paradigm shift in weather forecasting: the models learn the required transformations from data instead of relying on hand-coded physics and are computationally efficient. For neural models, however, each additional hour of lead time poses a substantial challenge as it requires capturing ever larger spatial contexts and increases the uncertainty of the prediction. In this work, we present a neural network that is capable of large-scale precipitation forecasting up to twelve hours ahead and, starting from the same atmospheric state, the model achieves greater skill than the state-of-the-art physics-based models HRRR and HREF that currently operate in the Continental United States. Interpretability analyses reinforce the observation that the model learns to emulate advanced physics principles. These results represent a substantial step towards establishing a new paradigm of efficient forecasting with neural networks.

Rianne van den Berg, Alexey A. Gritsenko, Mostafa Dehghani et al.

In this paper we analyse and improve integer discrete flows for lossless compression. Integer discrete flows are a recently proposed class of models that learn invertible transformations for integer-valued random variables. Their discrete nature makes them particularly suitable for lossless compression with entropy coding schemes. We start by investigating a recent theoretical claim that states that invertible flows for discrete random variables are less flexible than their continuous counterparts. We demonstrate with a proof that this claim does not hold for integer discrete flows due to the embedding of data with finite support into the countably infinite integer lattice. Furthermore, we zoom in on the effect of gradient bias due to the straight-through estimator in integer discrete flows, and demonstrate that its influence is highly dependent on architecture choices and less prominent than previously thought. Finally, we show how different architecture modifications improve the performance of this model class for lossless compression, and that they also enable more efficient compression: a model with half the number of flow layers performs on par with or better than the original integer discrete flow model.

Casper Kaae Sønderby, Lasse Espeholt, Jonathan Heek et al.

Weather forecasting is a long standing scientific challenge with direct social and economic impact. The task is suitable for deep neural networks due to vast amounts of continuously collected data and a rich spatial and temporal structure that presents long range dependencies. We introduce MetNet, a neural network that forecasts precipitation up to 8 hours into the future at the high spatial resolution of 1 km$^2$ and at the temporal resolution of 2 minutes with a latency in the order of seconds. MetNet takes as input radar and satellite data and forecast lead time and produces a probabilistic precipitation map. The architecture uses axial self-attention to aggregate the global context from a large input patch corresponding to a million square kilometers. We evaluate the performance of MetNet at various precipitation thresholds and find that MetNet outperforms Numerical Weather Prediction at forecasts of up to 7 to 8 hours on the scale of the continental United States.

Alexander Rosenberg Johansen, Jonas Meinertz Hansen, Elias Khazen Obeid et al.

Most existing Neural Machine Translation models use groups of characters or whole words as their unit of input and output. We propose a model with a hierarchical char2word encoder, that takes individual characters both as input and output. We first argue that this hierarchical representation of the character encoder reduces computational complexity, and show that it improves translation performance. Secondly, by qualitatively studying attention plots from the decoder we find that the model learns to compress common words into a single embedding whereas rare words, such as names and places, are represented character by character.

Casper Kaae Sønderby, Jose Caballero, Lucas Theis et al.

Image super-resolution (SR) is an underdetermined inverse problem, where a large number of plausible high-resolution images can explain the same downsampled image. Most current single image SR methods use empirical risk minimisation, often with a pixel-wise mean squared error (MSE) loss. However, the outputs from such methods tend to be blurry, over-smoothed and generally appear implausible. A more desirable approach would employ Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) inference, preferring solutions that always have a high probability under the image prior, and thus appear more plausible. Direct MAP estimation for SR is non-trivial, as it requires us to build a model for the image prior from samples. Furthermore, MAP inference is often performed via optimisation-based iterative algorithms which don't compare well with the efficiency of neural-network-based alternatives. Here we introduce new methods for amortised MAP inference whereby we calculate the MAP estimate directly using a convolutional neural network. We first introduce a novel neural network architecture that performs a projection to the affine subspace of valid SR solutions ensuring that the high resolution output of the network is always consistent with the low resolution input. We show that, using this architecture, the amortised MAP inference problem reduces to minimising the cross-entropy between two distributions, similar to training generative models. We propose three methods to solve this optimisation problem: (1) Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) (2) denoiser-guided SR which backpropagates gradient-estimates from denoising to train the network, and (3) a baseline method using a maximum-likelihood-trained image prior. Our experiments show that the GAN based approach performs best on real image data. Lastly, we establish a connection between GANs and amortised variational inference as in e.g. variational autoencoders.

Lars Maaløe, Casper Kaae Sønderby, Søren Kaae Sønderby et al.

Deep generative models parameterized by neural networks have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in unsupervised and semi-supervised learning. We extend deep generative models with auxiliary variables which improves the variational approximation. The auxiliary variables leave the generative model unchanged but make the variational distribution more expressive. Inspired by the structure of the auxiliary variable we also propose a model with two stochastic layers and skip connections. Our findings suggest that more expressive and properly specified deep generative models converge faster with better results. We show state-of-the-art performance within semi-supervised learning on MNIST, SVHN and NORB datasets.

Casper Kaae Sønderby, Tapani Raiko, Lars Maaløe et al.

Variational Autoencoders are powerful models for unsupervised learning. However deep models with several layers of dependent stochastic variables are difficult to train which limits the improvements obtained using these highly expressive models. We propose a new inference model, the Ladder Variational Autoencoder, that recursively corrects the generative distribution by a data dependent approximate likelihood in a process resembling the recently proposed Ladder Network. We show that this model provides state of the art predictive log-likelihood and tighter log-likelihood lower bound compared to the purely bottom-up inference in layered Variational Autoencoders and other generative models. We provide a detailed analysis of the learned hierarchical latent representation and show that our new inference model is qualitatively different and utilizes a deeper more distributed hierarchy of latent variables. Finally, we observe that batch normalization and deterministic warm-up (gradually turning on the KL-term) are crucial for training variational models with many stochastic layers.

Søren Kaae Sønderby, Casper Kaae Sønderby, Lars Maaløe et al.

We integrate the recently proposed spatial transformer network (SPN) [Jaderberg et. al 2015] into a recurrent neural network (RNN) to form an RNN-SPN model. We use the RNN-SPN to classify digits in cluttered MNIST sequences. The proposed model achieves a single digit error of 1.5% compared to 2.9% for a convolutional networks and 2.0% for convolutional networks with SPN layers. The SPN outputs a zoomed, rotated and skewed version of the input image. We investigate different down-sampling factors (ratio of pixel in input and output) for the SPN and show that the RNN-SPN model is able to down-sample the input images without deteriorating performance. The down-sampling in RNN-SPN can be thought of as adaptive down-sampling that minimizes the information loss in the regions of interest. We attribute the superior performance of the RNN-SPN to the fact that it can attend to a sequence of regions of interest.