Ivana Dusparic

Krešimir Kušić, Vinny Cahill, Ivana Dusparic

The operational effectiveness of digital-twin technology in motorway traffic management depends on the availability of a continuous flow of high-resolution real-time traffic data. To function as a proactive decision-making support layer within traffic management, a digital twin must also incorporate predicted traffic conditions in addition to real-time observations. Due to the spatio-temporal complexity and the time-variant, non-linear nature of traffic dynamics, predicting motorway traffic remains a difficult problem. Sequence-based deep-learning models offer clear advantages over classical machine learning and statistical models in capturing long-range, temporal dependencies in time-series traffic data, yet limitations in forecasting accuracy and model complexity point to the need for further improvements. To improve motorway traffic forecasting, this paper introduces a Geographically-aware Transformer-based Traffic Forecasting GATTF model, which exploits the geographical relationships between distributed sensors using their mutual information (MI). The model has been evaluated using real-time data from the Geneva motorway network in Switzerland and results confirm that incorporating geographical awareness through MI enhances the accuracy of GATTF forecasting compared to a standard Transformer, without increasing model complexity.

Raul de la Rosa, Ivana Dusparic, Nicolas Cardozo

Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents often struggle in real-world applications where environmental conditions are non-stationary, particularly when reward functions shift or the available action space expands. This paper introduces MORPHIN, a self-adaptive Q-learning framework that enables on-the-fly adaptation without full retraining. By integrating concept drift detection with dynamic adjustments to learning and exploration hyperparameters, MORPHIN adapts agents to changes in both the reward function and on-the-fly expansions of the agent's action space, while preserving prior policy knowledge to prevent catastrophic forgetting. We validate our approach using a Gridworld benchmark and a traffic signal control simulation. The results demonstrate that MORPHIN achieves superior convergence speed and continuous adaptation compared to a standard Q-learning baseline, improving learning efficiency by up to 1.7x.

Shivani Tomar, Seshu Tirupathi, Elizabeth Daly et al.

Time series foundation models have recently gained a lot of attention due to their ability to model complex time series data encompassing different domains including traffic, energy, and weather. Although they exhibit strong average zero-shot performance on forecasting tasks, their predictions on certain critical regions of the data are not always reliable, limiting their usability in real-world applications, especially when data exhibits unique trends. In this paper, we propose a selective forecasting framework to identify these critical segments of time series using shapelets. We learn shapelets using shift-invariant dictionary learning on the validation split of the target domain dataset. Utilizing distance-based similarity to these shapelets, we facilitate the user to selectively discard unreliable predictions and be informed of the model's realistic capabilities. Empirical results on diverse benchmark time series datasets demonstrate that our approach leveraging both zero-shot and full-shot fine-tuned models reduces the overall error by an average of 22.17% for zero-shot and 22.62% for full-shot fine-tuned model. Furthermore, our approach using zero-shot and full-shot fine-tuned models, also outperforms its random selection counterparts by up to 21.41% and 21.43% on one of the datasets.

Chenyang Zhao, Vinny Cahill, Ivana Dusparic

Reward design has been one of the central challenges for real world reinforcement learning (RL) deployment, especially in settings with multiple objectives. Preference-based RL offers an appealing alternative by learning from human preferences over pairs of behavioural outcomes. More recently, RL from AI feedback (RLAIF) has demonstrated that large language models (LLMs) can generate preference labels at scale, mitigating the reliance on human annotators. However, existing RLAIF work typically focuses only on single-objective tasks, leaving the open question of how RLAIF handles systems that involve multiple objectives. In such systems trade-offs among conflicting objectives are difficult to specify, and policies risk collapsing into optimizing for a dominant goal. In this paper, we explore the extension of the RLAIF paradigm to multi-objective self-adaptive systems. We show that multi-objective RLAIF can produce policies that yield balanced trade-offs reflecting different user priorities without laborious reward engineering. We argue that integrating RLAIF into multi-objective RL offers a scalable path toward user-aligned policy learning in domains with inherently conflicting objectives.