Iker Perez

Inês Oliveira e Silva, Sérgio Jesus, Iker Perez et al.

Shapley values are a cornerstone of explainable AI, yet their proliferation into competing formulations has created a fragmented landscape with little consensus on practical deployment. While theoretical differences are well-documented, evaluation remains reliant on quantitative proxies whose alignment with human utility is unverified. In this work, we use a unified amortized framework to isolate semantic differences between eight Shapley variants under the low-latency constraints of operational risk workflows. We conduct a large-scale empirical evaluation across four risk datasets and a realistic fraud-detection environment involving professional analysts and 3,735 case reviews. Our results reveal a fundamental misalignment: standard quantitative metrics, such as sparsity and faithfulness, are decoupled from human-perceived clarity and decision utility. Furthermore, while no formulation improved objective analyst performance, explanations consistently increased decision confidence, signaling a critical risk of automation bias in high-stakes settings. These findings suggest that current evaluation proxies are insufficient for predicting downstream human impact, and we provide evidence-based guidance for selecting formulations and metrics in operational decision systems.

Piotr Skalski, David Sutton, Stuart Burrell et al.

Machine learning models underpin many modern financial systems for use cases such as fraud detection and churn prediction. Most are based on supervised learning with hand-engineered features, which relies heavily on the availability of labelled data. Large self-supervised generative models have shown tremendous success in natural language processing and computer vision, yet so far they haven't been adapted to multivariate time series of financial transactions. In this paper, we present a generative pretraining method that can be used to obtain contextualised embeddings of financial transactions. Benchmarks on public datasets demonstrate that it outperforms state-of-the-art self-supervised methods on a range of downstream tasks. We additionally perform large-scale pretraining of an embedding model using a corpus of data from 180 issuing banks containing 5.1 billion transactions and apply it to the card fraud detection problem on hold-out datasets. The embedding model significantly improves value detection rate at high precision thresholds and transfers well to out-of-domain distributions.

Iker Perez, Jason Wong, Piotr Skalski et al.

Global financial crime activity is driving demand for machine learning solutions in fraud prevention. However, prevention systems are commonly serviced to financial institutions in isolation, and few provisions exist for data sharing due to fears of unintentional leaks and adversarial attacks. Collaborative learning advances in finance are rare, and it is hard to find real-world insights derived from privacy-preserving data processing systems. In this paper, we present a collaborative deep learning framework for fraud prevention, designed from a privacy standpoint, and awarded at the recent PETs Prize Challenges. We leverage latent embedded representations of varied-length transaction sequences, along with local differential privacy, in order to construct a data release mechanism which can securely inform externally hosted fraud and anomaly detection models. We assess our contribution on two distributed data sets donated by large payment networks, and demonstrate robustness to popular inference-time attacks, along with utility-privacy trade-offs analogous to published work in alternative application domains.

Iker Perez, Piotr Skalski, Alec Barns-Graham et al.

Predictive uncertainties in classification tasks are often a consequence of model inadequacy or insufficient training data. In popular applications, such as image processing, we are often required to scrutinise these uncertainties by meaningfully attributing them to input features. This helps to improve interpretability assessments. However, there exist few effective frameworks for this purpose. Vanilla forms of popular methods for the provision of saliency masks, such as SHAP or integrated gradients, adapt poorly to target measures of uncertainty. Thus, state-of-the-art tools instead proceed by creating counterfactual or adversarial feature vectors, and assign attributions by direct comparison to original images. In this paper, we present a novel framework that combines path integrals, counterfactual explanations and generative models, in order to procure attributions that contain few observable artefacts or noise. We evidence that this outperforms existing alternatives through quantitative evaluations with popular benchmarking methods and data sets of varying complexity.