Lin Ge

Lin Ge, Jitao Wang, Chengchun Shi et al.

Mediation analysis learns the causal effect transmitted via mediator variables between treatments and outcomes and receives increasing attention in various scientific domains to elucidate causal relations. Most existing works focus on point-exposure studies where each subject only receives one treatment at a single time point. However, there are a number of applications (e.g., mobile health) where the treatments are sequentially assigned over time and the dynamic mediation effects are of primary interest. Proposing a reinforcement learning (RL) framework, we are the first to evaluate dynamic mediation effects in settings with infinite horizons. We decompose the average treatment effect into an immediate direct effect, an immediate mediation effect, a delayed direct effect, and a delayed mediation effect. Upon the identification of each effect component, we further develop robust and semi-parametrically efficient estimators under the RL framework to infer these causal effects. The superior performance of the proposed method is demonstrated through extensive numerical studies, theoretical results, and an analysis of a mobile health dataset.

Haitao Jiang, Lin Ge, Yuhe Gao et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown their success in language understanding and reasoning on general topics. However, their capability to perform inference based on user-specified structured data and knowledge in corpus-rare concepts, such as causal decision-making is still limited. In this work, we explore the possibility of fine-tuning an open-sourced LLM into LLM4Causal, which can identify the causal task, execute a corresponding function, and interpret its numerical results based on users' queries and the provided dataset. Meanwhile, we propose a data generation process for more controllable GPT prompting and present two instruction-tuning datasets: (1) Causal-Retrieval-Bench for causal problem identification and input parameter extraction for causal function calling and (2) Causal-Interpret-Bench for in-context causal interpretation. By conducting end-to-end evaluations and two ablation studies, we showed that LLM4Causal can deliver end-to-end solutions for causal problems and provide easy-to-understand answers, which significantly outperforms the baselines.

Lin Ge, Yang Xu, Jianing Chu et al.

Today's top advertisers typically manage hundreds of campaigns simultaneously and consistently launch new ones throughout the year. A crucial challenge for marketing managers is determining the optimal allocation of limited budgets across various ad lines in each campaign to maximize cumulative returns, especially given the huge uncertainty in return outcomes. In this paper, we propose to formulate budget allocation as a multi-task combinatorial bandit problem and introduce a novel online budget allocation system. The proposed system: i) integrates a Bayesian hierarchical model to intelligently utilize the metadata of campaigns and ad lines and budget size, ensuring efficient information sharing; ii) provides the flexibility to incorporate diverse modeling techniques such as Linear Regression, Gaussian Processes, and Neural Networks, catering to diverse environmental complexities; and iii) employs the Thompson sampling (TS) technique to strike a balance between exploration and exploitation. Through offline evaluation and online experiments, our system demonstrates robustness and adaptability, effectively maximizing the overall cumulative returns. A Python implementation of the proposed procedure is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MCMAB.

Lin Ge, Hengrui Cai, Runzhe Wan et al.

To make effective decisions, it is important to have a thorough understanding of the causal relationships among actions, environments, and outcomes. This review aims to surface three crucial aspects of decision-making through a causal lens: 1) the discovery of causal relationships through causal structure learning, 2) understanding the impacts of these relationships through causal effect learning, and 3) applying the knowledge gained from the first two aspects to support decision making via causal policy learning. Moreover, we identify challenges that hinder the broader utilization of causal decision-making and discuss recent advances in overcoming these challenges. Finally, we provide future research directions to address these challenges and to further enhance the implementation of causal decision-making in practice, with real-world applications illustrated based on the proposed causal decision-making. We aim to offer a comprehensive methodology and practical implementation framework by consolidating various methods in this area into a Python-based collection. URL: https://causaldm.github.io/Causal-Decision-Making.

Zheyuan Zhang, Lin Ge, Hongjiang Li et al.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks, and LLM-based agents further extend these abilities to various practical workflows. While recent progress shows that multi-agent systems (MAS) can outperform single agents by coordinating specialized roles, designing effective MAS remains difficult due to prompt sensitivity and the compounded instability MAS creates. To cope with the challenge, recent efforts in automated prompt design have reduced manual effort. However, multi-agent prompt optimization remains largely unexplored. Challenges like exponentially expanding search space and ambiguous credit assignment together make systematic design intractable without principled methods. Therefore, we introduce M}ulti-Agent PRompt Optimization (MAPRO), a four-stage framework that first formulates MAS prompt optimization as a Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) inference problem and solves it using a language-guided variant of max-product belief propagation algorithm. To address credit assignment and updates the system iteratively, MAPRO employs a topology-aware refinement mechanism that integrates execution feedback and downstream blames to selectively update agent prompts. Through this process, MAPRO progressively converges to a coordinated set of agent-specific prompt policies. Across benchmarks in various tasks, MAPRO achieves state-of-the-art performance, consistently surpassing manually engineered baselines and recent automated alternatives. Beyond performance, our MAP-based formulation also delivers general guidelines for building more reliable and principled multi-agent systems in the future

Haitao Jiang, Lin Ge, Hengrui Cai et al.

Large Language Model (LLM) agents commonly condition actions on full action-observation histories, which introduce task-irrelevant information that easily leads to redundant actions and higher inference cost. We propose Progress-Aware Belief Update (PABU), a belief-state framework that compactly represents an agent's state by explicitly modeling task progress and selectively retaining past actions and observations. At each step, the agent predicts its relative progress since the previous round and decides whether the newly encountered interaction should be stored, conditioning future decisions only on the retained subset. Across eight environments in the AgentGym benchmark, and using identical training trajectories, PABU achieves an 81.0% task completion rate, outperforming previous State of the art (SoTA) models with full-history belief by 23.9%. Additionally, PABU's progress-oriented action selection improves efficiency, reducing the average number of interaction steps to 9.5, corresponding to a 26.9% reduction. Ablation studies show that both explicit progress prediction and selective retention are necessary for robust belief learning and performance gains.

Runzhe Wan, Lin Ge, Rui Song

Online learning in large-scale structured bandits is known to be challenging due to the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we propose a unified meta-learning framework for a general class of structured bandit problems where the parameter space can be factorized to item-level. The novel bandit algorithm is general to be applied to many popular problems,scalable to the huge parameter and action spaces, and robust to the specification of the generalization model. At the core of this framework is a Bayesian hierarchical model that allows information sharing among items via their features, upon which we design a meta Thompson sampling algorithm. Three representative examples are discussed thoroughly. Both theoretical analysis and numerical results support the usefulness of the proposed method.

Lin Ge, Xinming An, Donglin Zeng et al.

Adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae (APNS) are common among veterans and millions of Americans after traumatic exposures, resulting in substantial burdens for trauma survivors and society. Despite numerous studies conducted on APNS over the past decades, there has been limited progress in understanding the underlying neurobiological mechanisms due to several unique challenges. One of these challenges is the reliance on subjective self-report measures to assess APNS, which can easily result in measurement errors and biases (e.g., recall bias). To mitigate this issue, in this paper, we investigate the potential of leveraging the objective longitudinal mobile device data to identify homogeneous APNS states and study the dynamic transitions and potential risk factors of APNS after trauma exposure. To handle specific challenges posed by longitudinal mobile device data, we developed exploratory hidden Markov factor models and designed a Stabilized Expectation-Maximization algorithm for parameter estimation. Simulation studies were conducted to evaluate the performance of parameter estimation and model selection. Finally, to demonstrate the practical utility of the method, we applied it to mobile device data collected from the Advancing Understanding of RecOvery afteR traumA (AURORA) study.

Runzhe Wan, Lin Ge, Rui Song

How to explore efficiently is a central problem in multi-armed bandits. In this paper, we introduce the metadata-based multi-task bandit problem, where the agent needs to solve a large number of related multi-armed bandit tasks and can leverage some task-specific features (i.e., metadata) to share knowledge across tasks. As a general framework, we propose to capture task relations through the lens of Bayesian hierarchical models, upon which a Thompson sampling algorithm is designed to efficiently learn task relations, share information, and minimize the cumulative regrets. Two concrete examples for Gaussian bandits and Bernoulli bandits are carefully analyzed. The Bayes regret for Gaussian bandits clearly demonstrates the benefits of information sharing with our algorithm. The proposed method is further supported by extensive experiments.