Ravi Tandon

Yang Nan, Qihao Wen, Jiahao Wang et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate potential to estimate the probability of uncertain events, by leveraging their extensive knowledge and reasoning capabilities. This ability can be applied to support intelligent decision-making across diverse fields, such as financial forecasting and preventive healthcare. However, directly prompting LLMs for probability estimation faces significant challenges: their outputs are often noisy, and the underlying predicting process is opaque. In this paper, we propose PRISM: Probability Reconstruction via Shapley Measures, a framework that brings transparency and precision to LLM-based probability estimation. PRISM decomposes an LLM's prediction by quantifying the marginal contribution of each input factor using Shapley values. These factor-level contributions are then aggregated to reconstruct a calibrated final estimate. In our experiments, we demonstrate PRISM improves predictive accuracy over direct prompting and other baselines, across multiple domains including finance, healthcare, and agriculture. Beyond performance, PRISM provides a transparent prediction pipeline: our case studies visualize how individual factors shape the final estimate, helping build trust in LLM-based decision support systems.

Payel Bhattacharjee, Osvaldo Simeone, Ravi Tandon

Reward modeling is a core component of modern alignment pipelines including RLHF and RLAIF, underpinning policy optimization methods including PPO and TRPO. However, training reliable reward models relies heavily on human-labeled preference data, which is costly and limited, motivating the use of data augmentation. Existing augmentation approaches typically operate at the representation or semantic level and remain agnostic to the reward model's estimation difficulty. In this paper, we propose MARS, an adaptive, margin-aware augmentation and sampling strategy that explicitly targets ambiguous and failure modes of the reward model. Our proposed framework, MARS, concentrates augmentation on low-margin (ambiguous) preference pairs where the reward model is most uncertain, and iteratively refines the training distribution via hard-sample augmentation. We provide theoretical guarantees showing that this strategy increases the average curvature of the loss function hence enhance information and improves conditioning, along with empirical results demonstrating consistent gains over uniform augmentation for robust reward modeling.