Binwu Wang

Jiaming Ma, Siyuan Mu, Ruilin Tang et al.

The prevailing Direct Forecasting (DF) paradigm dominates Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) by forcing models to predict the entire future horizon in a single forward pass. While efficient, this rigid coupling of output and evaluation horizons necessitates computationally prohibitive re-training for every target horizon. In this work, we uncover a counter-intuitive optimization anomaly: models trained on short horizons-when coupled with our proposed Evolutionary Forecasting (EF) paradigm-significantly outperform those trained directly on long horizons. We attribute this success to the mitigation of a fundamental optimization pathology inherent in DF, where conflicting gradients from distant futures cripple the learning of local dynamics. We establish EF as a unified generative framework, proving that DF is merely a degenerate special case of EF. Extensive experiments demonstrate that a singular EF model surpasses task-specific DF ensembles across standard benchmarks and exhibits robust asymptotic stability in extreme extrapolation. This work propels a paradigm shift in LTSF: moving from passive Static Mapping to autonomous Evolutionary Reasoning.

Zhipeng Liu, Peibo Duan, Xuan Tang et al.

The World Wide Web thrives on intelligent services that rely on accurate time series classification, which has recently witnessed significant progress driven by advances in deep learning. However, existing studies face challenges in domain incremental learning. In this paper, we propose a lightweight and robust dual-causal disentanglement framework (DualCD) to enhance the robustness of models under domain incremental scenarios, which can be seamlessly integrated into time series classification models. Specifically, DualCD first introduces a temporal feature disentanglement module to capture class-causal features and spurious features. The causal features can offer sufficient predictive power to support the classifier in domain incremental learning settings. To accurately capture these causal features, we further design a dual-causal intervention mechanism to eliminate the influence of both intra-class and inter-class confounding features. This mechanism constructs variant samples by combining the current class's causal features with intra-class spurious features and with causal features from other classes. The causal intervention loss encourages the model to accurately predict the labels of these variant samples based solely on the causal features. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets and models demonstrate that DualCD effectively improves performance in domain incremental scenarios. We summarize our rich experiments into a comprehensive benchmark to facilitate research in domain incremental time series classification.