Sinduja Subramaniam

Yanan Cao, Ashish Ranjan, Sinduja Subramaniam et al.

Repurchase behavior is a primary signal in large-scale retail recommendation, particularly in categories with frequent replenishment: many items in a user's next basket were previously purchased and their timing follows stable, item-specific cadences. Yet most next basket repurchase recommendation models represent history as a sequence of discrete basket events indexed by visit order, which cannot explicitly model elapsed calendar time or update item rankings as days pass between purchases. We present CASE (Cadence-Aware Set Encoding for next basket repurchase recommendation), which decouples item-level cadence learning from cross-item interaction, enabling explicit calendar-time modeling while remaining production-scalable. CASE represents each item's purchase history as a calendar-time signal over a fixed horizon, applies shared multi-scale temporal convolutions to capture recurring rhythms, and uses induced set attention to model cross-item dependencies with sub-quadratic complexity, allowing efficient batch inference at scale. Across three public benchmarks and a proprietary dataset, CASE consistently improves Precision, Recall, and NDCG at multiple cutoffs compared to strong next basket prediction baselines. In a production-scale evaluation with tens of millions of users and a large item catalog, CASE achieves up to 8.6% relative Precision and 9.9% Recall lift at top-5, demonstrating that scalable cadence-aware modeling yields measurable gains in both benchmark and industrial settings.

Yanan Cao, Farnaz Fallahi, Murali Mohana Krishna Dandu et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in reasoning and prediction across different domains. Yet, their ability to infer temporal regularities from structured behavioral data remains underexplored. This paper presents a systematic study investigating whether LLMs can predict time intervals between recurring user actions, such as repeated purchases, and how different levels of contextual information shape their predictive behavior. Using a simple but representative repurchase scenario, we benchmark state-of-the-art LLMs in zero-shot settings against both statistical and machine-learning models. Two key findings emerge. First, while LLMs surpass lightweight statistical baselines, they consistently underperform dedicated machine-learning models, showing their limited ability to capture quantitative temporal structure. Second, although moderate context can improve LLM accuracy, adding further user-level detail degrades performance. These results challenge the assumption that "more context leads to better reasoning". Our study highlights fundamental limitations of today's LLMs in structured temporal inference and offers guidance for designing future context-aware hybrid models that integrate statistical precision with linguistic flexibility.