Zhangdie Yuan

Nedjma Ousidhoum, Zhangdie Yuan, Andreas Vlachos · cambridge

Fact-checking requires retrieving evidence related to a claim under investigation. The task can be formulated as question generation based on a claim, followed by question answering. However, recent question generation approaches assume that the answer is known and typically contained in a passage given as input, whereas such passages are what is being sought when verifying a claim. In this paper, we present {\it Varifocal}, a method that generates questions based on different focal points within a given claim, i.e.\ different spans of the claim and its metadata, such as its source and date. Our method outperforms previous work on a fact-checking question generation dataset on a wide range of automatic evaluation metrics. These results are corroborated by our manual evaluation, which indicates that our method generates more relevant and informative questions. We further demonstrate the potential of focal points in generating sets of clarification questions for product descriptions.

Zhangdie Yuan, Songbo Hu, Ivan Vulić et al. · cambridge

Acquiring factual knowledge with Pretrained Language Models (PLMs) has attracted increasing attention, showing promising performance in many knowledge-intensive tasks. Their good performance has led the community to believe that the models do possess a modicum of reasoning competence rather than merely memorising the knowledge. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the learnable deductive (also known as explicit) reasoning capability of PLMs. Through a series of controlled experiments, we posit two main findings. (i) PLMs inadequately generalise learned logic rules and perform inconsistently against simple adversarial surface form edits. (ii) While the deductive reasoning fine-tuning of PLMs does improve their performance on reasoning over unseen knowledge facts, it results in catastrophically forgetting the previously learnt knowledge. Our main results suggest that PLMs cannot yet perform reliable deductive reasoning, demonstrating the importance of controlled examinations and probing of PLMs' reasoning abilities; we reach beyond (misleading) task performance, revealing that PLMs are still far from human-level reasoning capabilities, even for simple deductive tasks.

Songbo Hu, Xiaobin Wang, Zhangdie Yuan et al. · cambridge

We present DIALIGHT, a toolkit for developing and evaluating multilingual Task-Oriented Dialogue (ToD) systems which facilitates systematic evaluations and comparisons between ToD systems using fine-tuning of Pretrained Language Models (PLMs) and those utilising the zero-shot and in-context learning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). In addition to automatic evaluation, this toolkit features (i) a secure, user-friendly web interface for fine-grained human evaluation at both local utterance level and global dialogue level, and (ii) a microservice-based backend, improving efficiency and scalability. Our evaluations reveal that while PLM fine-tuning leads to higher accuracy and coherence, LLM-based systems excel in producing diverse and likeable responses. However, we also identify significant challenges of LLMs in adherence to task-specific instructions and generating outputs in multiple languages, highlighting areas for future research. We hope this open-sourced toolkit will serve as a valuable resource for researchers aiming to develop and properly evaluate multilingual ToD systems and will lower, currently still high, entry barriers in the field.

Zhangdie Yuan, Andreas Vlachos · cambridge

Despite progress in automated fact-checking, most systems require a significant amount of labeled training data, which is expensive. In this paper, we propose a novel zero-shot method, which instead of operating directly on the claim and evidence sentences, decomposes them into semantic triples augmented using external knowledge graphs, and uses large language models trained for natural language inference. This allows it to generalize to adversarial datasets and domains that supervised models require specific training data for. Our empirical results show that our approach outperforms previous zero-shot approaches on FEVER, FEVER-Symmetric, FEVER 2.0, and Climate-FEVER, while being comparable or better than supervised models on the adversarial and the out-of-domain datasets.

Zhangdie Yuan, Eric Chamoun, Rami Aly et al. · cambridge

This paper introduces PRobELM (Plausibility Ranking Evaluation for Language Models), a benchmark designed to assess language models' ability to discern more plausible from less plausible scenarios through their parametric knowledge. While benchmarks such as TruthfulQA emphasise factual accuracy or truthfulness, and others such as COPA explore plausible scenarios without explicitly incorporating world knowledge, PRobELM seeks to bridge this gap by evaluating models' capabilities to prioritise plausible scenarios that leverage world knowledge over less plausible alternatives. This design allows us to assess the potential of language models for downstream use cases such as literature-based discovery where the focus is on identifying information that is likely but not yet known. Our benchmark is constructed from a dataset curated from Wikidata edit histories, tailored to align the temporal bounds of the training data for the evaluated models. PRobELM facilitates the evaluation of language models across multiple prompting types, including statement, text completion, and question-answering. Experiments with 10 models of various sizes and architectures on the relationship between model scales, training recency, and plausibility performance, reveal that factual accuracy does not directly correlate with plausibility performance and that up-to-date training data enhances plausibility assessment across different model architectures.

Zhangdie Yuan, Zifeng Ding, Andreas Vlachos · cambridge

Forecasting is an important task in many domains, such as technology and economics. However existing forecasting benchmarks largely lack comprehensive confidence assessment, focus on limited question types, and often consist of artificial questions that do not align with real-world human forecasting needs. To address these gaps, we introduce FOReCAst (Future Outcome Reasoning and Confidence Assessment), a benchmark that evaluates models' ability to make predictions and their confidence in them. FOReCAst spans diverse forecasting scenarios involving Boolean questions, timeframe prediction, and quantity estimation, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both prediction accuracy and confidence calibration for real-world applications.

Zhangdie Yuan, Han-Chin Shing, Mitch Strong et al.

Accurate clinical coding is essential for healthcare documentation, billing, and decision-making. While prior work shows that off-the-shelf LLMs struggle with this task, evaluations based on exact match metrics often overlook errors where predicted codes are hierarchically close but incorrect. Our analysis reveals that such hierarchical misalignments account for a substantial portion of LLM failures. We show that lightweight interventions, including prompt engineering and small-scale fine-tuning, can improve accuracy without the computational overhead of search-based methods. To address hierarchically near-miss errors, we introduce clinical code verification as both a standalone task and a pipeline component. To mitigate the limitations in existing datasets, such as incomplete evidence and inpatient bias in MIMIC, we release an expert double-annotated benchmark of outpatient clinical notes with ICD-10 codes. Our results highlight verification as an effective and reliable step toward improving LLM-based medical coding.

Zhangdie Yuan, Zifeng Ding, Andreas Vlachos · cambridge

Prior work has largely treated future event prediction as a static task, failing to consider how forecasts and the confidence in them should evolve as new evidence emerges. To address this gap, we introduce EVOLVECAST, a framework for evaluating whether large language models appropriately revise their predictions in response to new information. In particular, EVOLVECAST assesses whether LLMs adjust their forecasts when presented with information released after their training cutoff. We use human forecasters as a comparative reference to analyze prediction shifts and confidence calibration under updated contexts. While LLMs demonstrate some responsiveness to new information, their updates are often inconsistent or overly conservative. We further find that neither verbalized nor logits-based confidence estimates consistently outperform the other, and both remain far from the human reference standard. Across settings, models tend to express conservative bias, underscoring the need for more robust approaches to belief updating.

Zifeng Ding, Shenyang Huang, Zeyu Cao et al. · cambridge

Forecasting future links is a central task in temporal graph (TG) reasoning, requiring models to leverage historical interactions to predict upcoming ones. Traditional neural approaches, such as temporal graph neural networks, achieve strong performance but lack explainability and cannot be applied to unseen graphs without retraining. Recent studies have begun to explore using large language models (LLMs) for graph reasoning, but most of them are constrained to static graphs or small synthetic TGs and lack the evaluation of the quality of reasoning traces generated by LLMs. In this work, we present Reasoning-Enhanced Learning for Temporal Graphs (ReaL-TG), a reinforcement learning framework that fine-tunes LLMs to perform explainable link forecasting on real-world TGs. ReaL-TG uses outcome-based reward to encourage models to self-explore reasoning strategies from graph structure and to produce explanations that directly justify their predictions. To enable evaluation on LLM-generated reasoning traces, we propose a new evaluation protocol combining ranking metrics with an LLM-as-a-Judge system that assesses both the quality of reasoning and the impact of hallucinations. Experiments with ReaL-TG-4B, obtained by fine-tuning Qwen3-4B under our framework, show that it outperforms much larger frontier LLMs, including GPT-5 mini, on ranking metrics, while producing high-quality explanations confirmed by both the LLM judge and human evaluation.

Zhangdie Yuan, Andreas Vlachos · cambridge

Capturing symmetric (e.g., country borders another country) and antisymmetric (e.g., parent_of) relations is crucial for a variety of applications. This paper tackles this challenge by introducing a novel Wikidata-derived natural language inference dataset designed to evaluate large language models (LLMs). Our findings reveal that LLMs perform comparably to random chance on this benchmark, highlighting a gap in relational understanding. To address this, we explore encoder retraining via contrastive learning with k-nearest neighbors. The retrained encoder matches the performance of fine-tuned classification heads while offering additional benefits, including greater efficiency in few-shot learning and improved mitigation of catastrophic forgetting.

Yuan He, Zhangdie Yuan, Jiaoyan Chen et al.

Interpreting hierarchical structures latent in language is a key limitation of current language models (LMs). While previous research has implicitly leveraged these hierarchies to enhance LMs, approaches for their explicit encoding are yet to be explored. To address this, we introduce a novel approach to re-train transformer encoder-based LMs as Hierarchy Transformer encoders (HiTs), harnessing the expansive nature of hyperbolic space. Our method situates the output embedding space of pre-trained LMs within a Poincaré ball with a curvature that adapts to the embedding dimension, followed by training on hyperbolic clustering and centripetal losses. These losses are designed to effectively cluster related entities (input as texts) and organise them hierarchically. We evaluate HiTs against pre-trained LMs, standard fine-tuned LMs, and several hyperbolic embedding baselines, focusing on their capabilities in simulating transitive inference, predicting subsumptions, and transferring knowledge across hierarchies. The results demonstrate that HiTs consistently outperform all baselines in these tasks, underscoring the effectiveness and transferability of our re-trained hierarchy encoders.