Ting Dang

Feixiang Zheng, Yu Wu, Cecilia Mascolo et al.

Time series data from the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) provides critical information for patient monitoring. While recent advancements in applying Large Language Models (LLMs) to time series modeling (TSM) have shown great promise, their effectiveness on the irregular ICU data, characterized by particularly high rates of missing values, remains largely unexplored. This work investigates two key components underlying the success of LLMs for TSM: the time series encoder and the multimodal alignment strategy. To this end, we establish a systematic testbed to evaluate their impact across various state-of-the-art LLM-based methods on benchmark ICU datasets against strong supervised and self-supervised baselines. Results reveal that the encoder design is more critical than the alignment strategy. Encoders that explicitly model irregularity achieve substantial performance gains, yielding an average AUPRC increase of $12.8\%$ over the vanilla Transformer. While less impactful, the alignment strategy is also noteworthy, with the best-performing semantically rich, fusion-based strategy achieving a modest $2.9\%$ improvement over cross-attention. However, LLM-based methods require at least 10$\times$ longer training than the best-performing irregular supervised models, while delivering only comparable performance. They also underperform in data-scarce few-shot learning settings. These findings highlight both the promise and current limitations of LLMs for irregular ICU time series. The code is available at https://github.com/mHealthUnimelb/LLMTS.

Ting Dang, Soumyajit Chatterjee, Hong Jia et al.

Test time adaptation (TTA) has emerged as a promising solution to adapt pre-trained models to new, unseen data distributions using unlabeled target domain data. However, most TTA methods are designed for independent data, often overlooking the time series data and rarely addressing forecasting tasks. This paper presents AdaNODEs, an innovative source-free TTA method tailored explicitly for time series forecasting. By leveraging Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs), we propose a novel adaptation framework that accommodates the unique characteristics of distribution shifts in time series data. Moreover, we innovatively propose a new loss function to tackle TTA for forecasting tasks. AdaNODEs only requires updating limited model parameters, showing effectiveness in capturing temporal dependencies while avoiding significant memory usage. Extensive experiments with one- and high-dimensional data demonstrate that AdaNODEs offer relative improvements of 5.88\% and 28.4\% over the SOTA baselines, especially demonstrating robustness across higher severity distribution shifts.