Qirui Zheng

Jianyou Wang, Youze Zheng, Longtian Bao et al.

Scientists have long sought to accurately predict outcomes of real-world events before they happen. Can AI systems do so more reliably? We study this question through clinical trial outcome prediction, a high-stakes open challenge even for domain experts. We introduce CT Open, an open-access, live platform that will run four challenge every year. Anyone can submit predictions for each challenge. CT Open evaluates those submissions on trials whose outcomes were not yet public at the time of submission but were made public afterwards. Determining if a trial's outcome is public on the internet before a certain date is surprisingly difficult. Outcomes posted on official registries may lag behind by years, while the first mention may appear in obscure articles. To address this, we propose a novel, fully automated decontamination pipeline that uses iterative LLM-powered web search to identify the earliest mention of trial outcomes. We validate the pipeline's quality and accuracy by human expert's annotations. Since CT Open's pipeline ensures that every evaluated trial had no publicly reported outcome when the prediction was made, it allows participants to use any methodology and any data source. In this paper, we release a training set and two time-stamped test benchmarks, Winter 2025 and Summer 2025. We believe CT Open can serve as a central hub for advancing AI research on forecasting real-world outcomes before they occur, while also informing biomedical research and improving clinical trial design. CT Open Platform is hosted at $\href{https://ct-open.net/}{https://ct-open.net/}$

Lingfeng Li, Yunlong Lu, Yuefei Zhang et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in interactive environments requiring strategic decision-making, yet systematic evaluation of these capabilities remains challenging. Existing benchmarks for LLMs primarily assess static reasoning through isolated tasks and fail to capture dynamic strategic abilities. Recent game-based evaluations employ LLM-vs-LLM tournaments that produce relative rankings dependent on transient model pools, incurring quadratic computational costs and lacking stable performance anchors for longitudinal tracking. The central challenge is establishing a scalable evaluation framework that measures LLM strategic reasoning against consistent, interpretable standards rather than volatile peer models. Here we show that anchoring LLM evaluation to fixed hierarchies of skill-calibrated game Artificial Intelligence (AI) enables linear-time absolute skill measurement with stable cross-temporal interpretability. Built on the Botzone platform's established competitive infrastructure, our BotzoneBench evaluates LLMs across eight diverse games spanning deterministic perfect-information board games to stochastic imperfect-information card games. Through systematic assessment of 177,047 state-action pairs from five flagship models, we reveal significant performance disparities and identify distinct strategic behaviors, with top-performing models achieving proficiency comparable to mid-to-high-tier specialized game AI in multiple domains. This anchored evaluation paradigm generalizes beyond games to any domain with well-defined skill hierarchies, establishing a scalable and reusable framework for assessing interactive AI capabilities.

Yongyi Wang, Hanyu Liu, Lingfeng Li et al.

Decision Transformer (DT) formulates offline reinforcement learning as autoregressive sequence modeling, achieving promising results by predicting actions from a sequence of Return-to-Go (RTG), state, and action tokens. However, RTG is a scalar that summarizes future rewards, containing far less information than typical state or action vectors, yet it consumes the same computational budget per token. Worse, the self-attention cost of Transformers grows quadratically with sequence length, so including RTG as a separate token adds unnecessary overhead. We propose SlimDT, which removes RTG from the autoregressive sequence. Instead, we inject RTG information into the state representations before the sequential modeling step, allowing the Transformer to process only a compact (state, action) sequence. This reduces the sequence length by one-third, directly improving inference efficiency. On the D4RL benchmark, SlimDT surpasses standard DT across various tasks and achieves performance comparable to existing state-of-the-art methods. Decoupling a sparse conditioning signal from an information-rich sequence thus yields both computational gains and higher task performance.

Yongyi Wang, Hanyu Liu, Lingfeng Li et al.

The Decision Transformer (DT) has established a powerful sequence modeling approach to offline reinforcement learning. It conditions its action predictions on Return-to-Go (RTG), using it both to distinguish trajectory quality during training and to guide action generation at inference. In this work, we identify a critical redundancy in this design: feeding the entire sequence of RTGs into the Transformer is theoretically unnecessary, as only the most recent RTG affects action prediction. We show that this redundancy can impair DT's performance through experiments. To resolve this, we propose the Decoupled DT (DDT). DDT simplifies the architecture by processing only observation and action sequences through the Transformer, using the latest RTG to guide the action prediction. This streamlined approach not only improves performance but also reduces computational cost. Our experiments show that DDT significantly outperforms DT and establishes competitive performance against state-of-the-art DT variants across multiple offline RL tasks.