Changhoon Lee

Jun Park, Changhoon Lee

A data-driven model for predicting the surface temperature using neural networks was proposed to alleviate the computational burden of numerical weather prediction (NWP). Our model, named TPTNet uses only 2m temperature measured at the weather stations of the South Korean Peninsula as input to predict the local temperature at finite forecast hours. The turbulent fluctuation component of the temperature was extracted from the station measurements by separating the climatology component accounting for the yearly and daily variations. The effect of station altitude was then compensated by introducing a potential temperature. The resulting turbulent potential temperature data at irregularly distributed stations were used as input for predicting the turbulent potential temperature at forecast hours through three trained networks based on convolutional neural network (CNN), Swin Transformer, and a graphic neural network (GNN). The prediction performance of our network was compared with that of persistence and NWP, confirming that our model outperformed NWP for up to 12 forecast hours.

Jongsu Kim, Changhoon Lee

Forecasting the particulate matter (PM) concentration in South Korea has become urgently necessary owing to its strong negative impact on human life. In most statistical or machine learning methods, independent and identically distributed data, for example, a Gaussian distribution, are assumed; however, time series such as air pollution and weather data do not meet this assumption. In this study, the maximum correntropy criterion for regression (MCCR) loss is used in an analysis of the statistical characteristics of air pollution and weather data. Rigorous seasonality adjustment of the air pollution and weather data was performed because of their complex seasonality patterns and the heavy-tailed distribution of data even after deseasonalization. The MCCR loss was applied to multiple models including conventional statistical models and state-of-the-art machine learning models. The results show that the MCCR loss is more appropriate than the conventional mean squared error loss for forecasting extreme values.