Bruno Deprez

Bruno Deprez, Wouter Verbeke, Tim Verdonck

Modelling claim frequency and severity for non-life insurance pricing predominantly relies on generalised linear models, with gradient-boosted machines as the leading machine learning alternative. Tabular foundation models (TFMs) offer a fundamentally different paradigm. By pre-training on large collections of synthetic datasets, TFMs enable inference on new data through in-context learning, without any dataset-specific fitting or hyperparameter tuning. This paper presents a first empirical evaluation of TabPFN for motor insurance pricing, benchmarking it against GLM and XGBoost on two publicly available MTPL datasets. Our results show that TabPFN does not consistently outperform established baselines, exhibits substantially longer inference times, and is sensitive to the size of the in-context training set. While tabular foundation models represent a promising direction, particularly in data-scarce settings, their current formulation does not offer a viable replacement for established actuarial methods.

Félix Vandervorst, Bruno Deprez, Wouter Verbeke et al.

Graph-based methods are becoming increasingly popular in machine learning due to their ability to model complex data and relations. Insurance fraud is a prime use case, since false claims are often the result of organised criminals that stage accidents or the same persons filing erroneous claims on multiple policies. One challenge is that graph-based approaches struggle to find meaningful representations of the data because of the high class imbalance present in fraud data. Another is that insurance networks are heterogeneous and dynamic, given the changing relations among people, companies and policies. That is why gradient boosted tree approaches on tabular data still dominate the field. Therefore, we present a novel inductive graph gradient boosting machine (G-GBM) for supervised learning on heterogeneous and dynamic graphs. We show that our estimator competes with popular graph neural network approaches in an experiment using a variety of simulated random graphs. We demonstrate the power of G-GBM for insurance fraud detection using an open-source and a real-world, proprietary dataset. Given that the backbone model is a gradient boosting forest, we apply established explainability methods to gain better insights into the predictions made by G-GBM.

Bruno Deprez, Bart Baesens, Tim Verdonck et al.

Purpose: This paper introduces a novel graph-based method, GARG-AML, for efficient and effective anti-money laundering (AML). It quantifies smurfing risk, a popular money laundering method, by providing each node in the network with a single interpretable score. The proposed method strikes a balance among computational efficiency, detection power and transparency. Different versions of GARG-AML are introduced for undirected and directed networks. Methodology: GARG-AML constructs the adjacency matrix of a node's second-order neighbourhood in a specific way. This allows us to use the density of different blocks in the adjacency matrix to express the neighbourhood's resemblance to a pure smurfing pattern. GARG-AML is extended using a decision tree and gradient-boosting classifier to increase its performance even more. The methods are tested on synthetic and on open-source data against the current state-of-the-art in AML. Findings: We find that GARG-AML obtains state-of-the-art performance on all datasets. We illustrate that GARG-AML scales well to massive transactions graphs encountered at financial institutions. By leveraging only the adjacency matrix of the second-order neighbourhood and basic network features, this work highlights the potential of fundamental network properties towards advancing fraud detection. Originality: This paper uses only basic network features and expert knowledge on smurfing to construct a performant AML system. The originality lies in the translation of smurfing detection to these features and network representation. Our proposed method is built around the real business needs of scalability and interpretability. It therefore provides a solution that can be easily implemented at financial institutions or incorporated in existing AML solutions.

Bruno Deprez, Wei Wei, Wouter Verbeke et al.

Financial institutions are required by regulation to report suspicious financial transactions related to money laundering. Therefore, they need to constantly monitor vast amounts of incoming and outgoing transactions. A particular challenge in detecting money laundering is that money launderers continuously adapt their tactics to evade detection. Hence, detection methods need constant fine-tuning. Traditional machine learning models suffer from catastrophic forgetting when fine-tuning the model on new data, thereby limiting their effectiveness in dynamic environments. Continual learning methods may address this issue and enhance current anti-money laundering (AML) practices, by allowing models to incorporate new information while retaining prior knowledge. Research on continual graph learning for AML, however, is still scarce. In this review, we critically evaluate state-of-the-art continual graph learning approaches for AML applications. We categorise methods into replay-based, regularization-based, and architecture-based strategies within the graph neural network (GNN) framework, and we provide in-depth experimental evaluations on both synthetic and real-world AML data sets that showcase the effect of the different hyperparameters. Our analysis demonstrates that continual learning improves model adaptability and robustness in the face of extreme class imbalances and evolving fraud patterns. Finally, we outline key challenges and propose directions for future research.