Raghav Bongole

Raghav Bongole, Tobias J. Oechtering, Mikael Skoglund

Recent work established a generalized-Fano framework for lower bounding prior-predictive (Bayesian) CVaR in interactive statistical decision making. In this paper, we show how to instantiate that framework in concrete interactive problems and derive explicit Bayesian CVaR lower bounds from its abstract corollaries. Our approach compares a hard model with a reference model using squared Hellinger distance, and combines a lower bound on a reference hinge term with a bound on the distinguishability of the two models. We apply this approach to canonical examples, including Gaussian bandits, and obtain explicit bounds that make the dependence on key problem parameters transparent. These results show how the generalized-Fano Bayesian CVaR framework can be used as a practical lower-bound tool for interactive learning and risk-sensitive decision making.

Raghav Bongole, Amaury Gouverneur, Borja Rodríguez-Gálvez et al.

We study agents acting in an unknown environment where the agent's goal is to find a robust policy. We consider robust policies as policies that achieve high cumulative rewards for all possible environments. To this end, we consider agents minimizing the maximum regret over different environment parameters, leading to the study of minimax regret. This research focuses on deriving information-theoretic bounds for minimax regret in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with a finite time horizon. Building on concepts from supervised learning, such as minimum excess risk (MER) and minimax excess risk, we use recent bounds on the Bayesian regret to derive minimax regret bounds. Specifically, we establish minimax theorems and use bounds on the Bayesian regret to perform minimax regret analysis using these minimax theorems. Our contributions include defining a suitable minimax regret in the context of MDPs, finding information-theoretic bounds for it, and applying these bounds in various scenarios.

Raghav Bongole, Amirreza Zamani, Tobias J. Oechtering et al.

Minimax risk and regret focus on expectation, missing rare failures critical in safety-critical bandits and reinforcement learning. Minimax quantiles capture these tails. Three strands of prior work motivate this study: minimax-quantile bounds restricted to non-interactive estimation; unified interactive analyses that focus on expected risk rather than risk level specific quantile bounds; and high-probability bandit bounds that still lack a quantile-specific toolkit for general interactive protocols. To close this gap, within the interactive statistical decision making framework, we develop high-probability Fano and Le Cam tools and derive risk level explicit minimax-quantile bounds, including a quantile-to-expectation conversion and a tight link between strict and lower minimax quantiles. Instantiating these results for the two-armed Gaussian bandit immediately recovers optimal-rate bounds.