Xing Yan

Michal Nazarczuk, Sibi Catley-Chandar, Thomas Tanay et al.

This paper reviews the challenge on Sparse Neural Rendering that was part of the Advances in Image Manipulation (AIM) workshop, held in conjunction with ECCV 2024. This manuscript focuses on the competition set-up, the proposed methods and their respective results. The challenge aims at producing novel camera view synthesis of diverse scenes from sparse image observations. It is composed of two tracks, with differing levels of sparsity; 3 views in Track 1 (very sparse) and 9 views in Track 2 (sparse). Participants are asked to optimise objective fidelity to the ground-truth images as measured via the Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR) metric. For both tracks, we use the newly introduced Sparse Rendering (SpaRe) dataset and the popular DTU MVS dataset. In this challenge, 5 teams submitted final results to Track 1 and 4 teams submitted final results to Track 2. The submitted models are varied and push the boundaries of the current state-of-the-art in sparse neural rendering. A detailed description of all models developed in the challenge is provided in this paper.

Yufan Liao, Qi Wu, Zhaodi Wu et al.

Invariant learning methods, aimed at identifying a consistent predictor across multiple environments, are gaining prominence in out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization. Yet, when environments aren't inherent in the data, practitioners must define them manually. This environment partitioning--algorithmically segmenting the training dataset into environments--crucially affects invariant learning's efficacy but remains underdiscussed. Proper environment partitioning could broaden the applicability of invariant learning and enhance its performance. In this paper, we suggest partitioning the dataset into several environments by isolating low-correlation data subsets. Through experiments with synthetic and real data, our Decorr method demonstrates superior performance in combination with invariant learning. Decorr mitigates the issue of spurious correlations, aids in identifying stable predictors, and broadens the applicability of invariant learning methods.

Xing Yan, Yonghua Su, Wenxuan Ma

We propose a novel, succinct, and effective approach for distribution prediction to quantify uncertainty in machine learning. It incorporates adaptively flexible distribution prediction of $\mathbb{P}(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}=x)$ in regression tasks. This conditional distribution's quantiles of probability levels spreading the interval $(0,1)$ are boosted by additive models which are designed by us with intuitions and interpretability. We seek an adaptive balance between the structural integrity and the flexibility for $\mathbb{P}(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}=x)$, while Gaussian assumption results in a lack of flexibility for real data and highly flexible approaches (e.g., estimating the quantiles separately without a distribution structure) inevitably have drawbacks and may not lead to good generalization. This ensemble multi-quantiles approach called EMQ proposed by us is totally data-driven, and can gradually depart from Gaussian and discover the optimal conditional distribution in the boosting. On extensive regression tasks from UCI datasets, we show that EMQ achieves state-of-the-art performance comparing to many recent uncertainty quantification methods. Visualization results further illustrate the necessity and the merits of such an ensemble model.

Wenxuan Ma, Xing Yan, Kun Zhang

To improve the uncertainty quantification of variance networks, we propose a novel tree-structured local neural network model that partitions the feature space into multiple regions based on uncertainty heterogeneity. A tree is built upon giving the training data, whose leaf nodes represent different regions where region-specific neural networks are trained to predict both the mean and the variance for quantifying uncertainty. The proposed Uncertainty-Splitting Neural Regression Tree (USNRT) employs novel splitting criteria. At each node, a neural network is trained on the full data first, and a statistical test for the residuals is conducted to find the best split, corresponding to the two sub-regions with the most significant uncertainty heterogeneity between them. USNRT is computationally friendly because very few leaf nodes are sufficient and pruning is unnecessary. Furthermore, an ensemble version can be easily constructed to estimate the total uncertainty including the aleatory and epistemic. On extensive UCI datasets, USNRT or its ensemble shows superior performance compared to some recent popular methods for quantifying uncertainty with variances. Through comprehensive visualization and analysis, we uncover how USNRT works and show its merits, revealing that uncertainty heterogeneity does exist in many datasets and can be learned by USNRT.

Yufan Liao, Qi Wu, Xing Yan

Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) generalization is an essential topic in machine learning. However, recent research is only focusing on the corresponding methods for neural networks. This paper introduces a novel and effective solution for OOD generalization of decision tree models, named Invariant Decision Tree (IDT). IDT enforces a penalty term with regard to the unstable/varying behavior of a split across different environments during the growth of the tree. Its ensemble version, the Invariant Random Forest (IRF), is constructed. Our proposed method is motivated by a theoretical result under mild conditions, and validated by numerical tests with both synthetic and real datasets. The superior performance compared to non-OOD tree models implies that considering OOD generalization for tree models is absolutely necessary and should be given more attention.

Yijun Li, Cheuk Hang Leung, Xiangqian Sun et al.

Consumer credit services offered by e-commerce platforms provide customers with convenient loan access during shopping and have the potential to stimulate sales. To understand the causal impact of credit lines on spending, previous studies have employed causal estimators, based on direct regression (DR), inverse propensity weighting (IPW), and double machine learning (DML) to estimate the treatment effect. However, these estimators do not consider the notion that an individual's spending can be understood and represented as a distribution, which captures the range and pattern of amounts spent across different orders. By disregarding the outcome as a distribution, valuable insights embedded within the outcome distribution might be overlooked. This paper develops a distribution-valued estimator framework that extends existing real-valued DR-, IPW-, and DML-based estimators to distribution-valued estimators within Rubin's causal framework. We establish their consistency and apply them to a real dataset from a large e-commerce platform. Our findings reveal that credit lines positively influence spending across all quantiles; however, as credit lines increase, consumers allocate more to luxuries (higher quantiles) than necessities (lower quantiles).

Yiyan Huang, Cheuk Hang Leung, Qi Wu et al.

Causal learning is the key to obtaining stable predictions and answering \textit{what if} problems in decision-makings. In causal learning, it is central to seek methods to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) from observational data. The Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DML) is one of the prevalent methods to estimate ATE. However, the DML estimators can suffer from an \textit{error-compounding issue} and even give extreme estimates when the propensity scores are close to 0 or 1. Previous studies have overcome this issue through some empirical tricks such as propensity score trimming, yet none of the existing works solves it from a theoretical standpoint. In this paper, we propose a \textit{Robust Causal Learning (RCL)} method to offset the deficiencies of DML estimators. Theoretically, the RCL estimators i) satisfy the (higher-order) orthogonal condition and are as \textit{consistent and doubly robust} as the DML estimators, and ii) get rid of the error-compounding issue. Empirically, the comprehensive experiments show that: i) the RCL estimators give more stable estimations of the causal parameters than DML; ii) the RCL estimators outperform traditional estimators and their variants when applying different machine learning models on both simulation and benchmark datasets, and a mimic consumer credit dataset generated by WGAN.

Yiyan Huang, Cheuk Hang Leung, Xing Yan et al.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Xiangqian Sun, Xing Yan, Qi Wu

We propose a multivariate generative model to capture the complex dependence structure often encountered in business and financial data. Our model features heterogeneous and asymmetric tail dependence between all pairs of individual dimensions while also allowing heterogeneity and asymmetry in the tails of the marginals. A significant merit of our model structure is that it is not prone to error propagation in the parameter estimation process, hence very scalable, as the dimensions of datasets grow large. However, the likelihood methods are infeasible for parameter estimation in our case due to the lack of a closed-form density function. Instead, we devise a novel moment learning algorithm to learn the parameters. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the model and its estimator, we test them on simulated as well as real-world datasets. Results show that this framework gives better finite-sample performance compared to the copula-based benchmarks as well as recent similar models.

Xing Yan, Weizhong Zhang, Lin Ma et al.

We propose a parsimonious quantile regression framework to learn the dynamic tail behaviors of financial asset returns. Our model captures well both the time-varying characteristic and the asymmetrical heavy-tail property of financial time series. It combines the merits of a popular sequential neural network model, i.e., LSTM, with a novel parametric quantile function that we construct to represent the conditional distribution of asset returns. Our model also captures individually the serial dependences of higher moments, rather than just the volatility. Across a wide range of asset classes, the out-of-sample forecasts of conditional quantiles or VaR of our model outperform the GARCH family. Further, the proposed approach does not suffer from the issue of quantile crossing, nor does it expose to the ill-posedness comparing to the parametric probability density function approach.