Ahmed Hassan

Luke Darlow, Qiwen Deng, Ahmed Hassan et al.

It is challenging to scale time series forecasting models such that they forecast accurately for multiple distinct domains and datasets, all with potentially different underlying collection procedures (e.g., sample resolution), patterns (e.g., periodicity), and prediction requirements (e.g., reconstruction vs. forecasting). We call this general task universal forecasting. Existing methods usually assume that input data is regularly sampled, and they forecast to pre-determined horizons, resulting in failure to generalise outside of the scope of their training. We propose the DAM - a neural model that takes randomly sampled histories and outputs an adjustable basis composition as a continuous function of time for forecasting to non-fixed horizons. It involves three key components: (1) a flexible approach for using randomly sampled histories from a long-tail distribution, that enables an efficient global perspective of the underlying temporal dynamics while retaining focus on the recent history; (2) a transformer backbone that is trained on these actively sampled histories to produce, as representational output, (3) the basis coefficients of a continuous function of time. We show that a single univariate DAM, trained on 25 time series datasets, either outperformed or closely matched existing SoTA models at multivariate long-term forecasting across 18 datasets, including 8 held-out for zero-shot transfer, even though these models were trained to specialise for each dataset-horizon combination. This single DAM excels at zero-shot transfer and very-long-term forecasting, performs well at imputation, is interpretable via basis function composition and attention, can be tuned for different inference-cost requirements, is robust to missing and irregularly sampled data {by design}.

Artjom Joosen, Ahmed Hassan, Martin Asenov et al.

This paper releases and analyzes two new Huawei cloud serverless traces. The traces span a period of over 7 months with over 1.4 trillion function invocations combined. The first trace is derived from Huawei's internal workloads and contains detailed per-second statistics for 200 functions running across multiple Huawei cloud data centers. The second trace is a representative workload from Huawei's public FaaS platform. This trace contains per-minute arrival rates for over 5000 functions running in a single Huawei data center. We present the internals of a production FaaS platform by characterizing resource consumption, cold-start times, programming languages used, periodicity, per-second versus per-minute burstiness, correlations, and popularity. Our findings show that there is considerable diversity in how serverless functions behave: requests vary by up to 9 orders of magnitude across functions, with some functions executed over 1 billion times per day; scheduling time, execution time and cold-start distributions vary across 2 to 4 orders of magnitude and have very long tails; and function invocation counts demonstrate strong periodicity for many individual functions and on an aggregate level. Our analysis also highlights the need for further research in estimating resource reservations and time-series prediction to account for the huge diversity in how serverless functions behave. Datasets and code available at https://github.com/sir-lab/data-release

Moloud Arian Maram, Georgios Bletsos, Thanh Tung Nguyen et al.

Adjoint-based shape optimization of ship hulls is a powerful tool for addressing high-dimensional design problems in naval architecture, particularly in minimizing the ship resistance. However, its application to vessels that employ complex propulsion systems introduces significant challenges. They arise from the need for transient simulations extending over long periods of time with small time steps and from the reverse temporal propagation of the primal and adjoint solutions. These challenges place considerable demands on the required storage and computing power, which significantly hamper the use of adjoint methods in the industry. To address this issue, we propose a machine learning-assisted optimization framework that employs a Conditional Variational Autoencoder-based surrogate model of the propulsion system. The surrogate model replicates the time-averaged flow field induced by a Voith Schneider Propeller and replaces the geometrically and time-resolved propeller with a data-driven approximation. Primal flow verification examples demonstrate that the surrogate model achieves significant computational savings while maintaining the necessary accuracy of the resolved propeller. Optimization studies show that ignoring the propulsion system can yield designs that perform worse than the initial shape. In contrast, the proposed method produces shapes that achieve more than an 8\% reduction in resistance.