Qi Liu

Xiaoyu Tao, Mingyue Cheng, Ze Guo et al.

Time series forecasting (TSF) plays a critical role in decision-making for many real-world applications. Recently, LLM-based forecasters have made promising advancements. Despite their effectiveness, existing methods often lack explicit experience accumulation and continual evolution. In this work, we propose MemCast, a learning-to-memory framework that reformulates TSF as an experience-conditioned reasoning task. Specifically, we learn experience from the training set and organize it into a hierarchical memory. This is achieved by summarizing prediction results into historical patterns, distilling inference trajectories into reasoning wisdom, and inducing extracted temporal features into general laws. Furthermore, during inference, we leverage historical patterns to guide the reasoning process and utilize reasoning wisdom to select better trajectories, while general laws serve as criteria for reflective iteration. Additionally, to enable continual evolution, we design a dynamic confidence adaptation strategy that updates the confidence of individual entries without leaking the test set distribution. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate that MemCast consistently outperforms previous methods, validating the effectiveness of our approach. Our code is available at https://github.com/Xiaoyu-Tao/MemCast-TS.

Yaguo Liu, Mingyue Cheng, Daoyu Wang et al.

Time series forecasting can be viewed as a generative problem that requires both semantic understanding over contextual conditions and stochastic modeling of continuous temporal dynamics. Existing approaches typically rely on either autoregressive large language models (LLMs) for semantic context modeling or diffusion-like models for continuous probabilistic generation. However, neither method alone can adequately model both aspects simultaneously. In this work, we propose CoGenCast, a hybrid generative framework that couples pre-trained LLMs with flow-matching mechanism for effective time series forecasting. Specifically, we reconfigure pre-trained decoder-only LLMs into a native forecasting encoder-decoder backbone by modifying only the attention topology, enabling bidirectional context encoding and causal representation generation. Building on this, a flow-matching mechanism is further integrated to model temporal evolution, capturing continuous stochastic dynamics conditioned on the autoregressively generated representation. Notably, CoGenCast naturally supports multimodal forecasting and cross-domain unified training. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks show that CoGenCast consistently outperforms previous compared baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/liuyaguo/_CoGenCast.

Mukai Li, Qingcheng Zeng, Tianqing Fang et al.

As large language model agents tackle increasingly complex long-horizon tasks, effective post-training becomes critical. Prior work faces fundamental challenges: outcome-only rewards fail to precisely attribute credit to intermediate steps, estimated step-level rewards introduce systematic noise, and Monte Carlo sampling approaches for step reward estimation incur prohibitive computational cost. Inspired by findings that only a small fraction of high-entropy tokens drive effective RL for reasoning, we propose Critical Step Optimization (CSO), which focuses preference learning on verified critical steps, decision points where alternate actions demonstrably flip task outcomes from failure to success. Crucially, our method starts from failed policy trajectories rather than expert demonstrations, directly targeting the policy model's weaknesses. We use a process reward model (PRM) to identify candidate critical steps, leverage expert models to propose high-quality alternatives, then continue execution from these alternatives using the policy model itself until task completion. Only alternatives that the policy successfully executes to correct outcomes are verified and used as DPO training data, ensuring both quality and policy reachability. This yields fine-grained, verifiable supervision at critical decisions while avoiding trajectory-level coarseness and step-level noise. Experiments on GAIA-Text-103 and XBench-DeepSearch show that CSO achieves 37% and 26% relative improvement over the SFT baseline and substantially outperforms other post-training methods, while requiring supervision at only 16% of trajectory steps. This demonstrates the effectiveness of selective verification-based learning for agent post-training.