Mert Kayaalp

Mert Kayaalp, Virginia Bordignon, Stefan Vlaski et al.

This work studies networked agents cooperating to track a dynamical state of nature under partial information. The proposed algorithm is a distributed Bayesian filtering algorithm for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). It can be used for sequential state estimation tasks, as well as for modeling opinion formation over social networks under dynamic environments. We show that the disagreement with the optimal centralized solution is asymptotically bounded for the class of geometrically ergodic state transition models, which includes rapidly changing models. We also derive recursions for calculating the probability of error and establish convergence under Gaussian observation models. Simulations are provided to illustrate the theory and to compare against alternative approaches.

Mert Kayaalp, Fatima Ghadieh, Ali H. Sayed

Most works on multi-agent reinforcement learning focus on scenarios where the state of the environment is fully observable. In this work, we consider a cooperative policy evaluation task in which agents are not assumed to observe the environment state directly. Instead, agents can only have access to noisy observations and to belief vectors. It is well-known that finding global posterior distributions under multi-agent settings is generally NP-hard. As a remedy, we propose a fully decentralized belief forming strategy that relies on individual updates and on localized interactions over a communication network. In addition to the exchange of the beliefs, agents exploit the communication network by exchanging value function parameter estimates as well. We analytically show that the proposed strategy allows information to diffuse over the network, which in turn allows the agents' parameters to have a bounded difference with a centralized baseline. A multi-sensor target tracking application is considered in the simulations.

Mert Kayaalp, Yunus Inan, Visa Koivunen et al.

We consider the problem of information aggregation in federated decision making, where a group of agents collaborate to infer the underlying state of nature without sharing their private data with the central processor or each other. We analyze the non-Bayesian social learning strategy in which agents incorporate their individual observations into their opinions (i.e., soft-decisions) with Bayes rule, and the central processor aggregates these opinions by arithmetic or geometric averaging. Building on our previous work, we establish that both pooling strategies result in asymptotic normality characterization of the system, which, for instance, can be utilized to derive approximate expressions for the error probability. We verify the theoretical findings with simulations and compare both strategies.

Mert Kayaalp, Ali H. Sayed

This paper investigates causal influences between agents linked by a social graph and interacting over time. In particular, the work examines the dynamics of social learning models and distributed decision-making protocols, and derives expressions that reveal the causal relations between pairs of agents and explain the flow of influence over the network. The results turn out to be dependent on the graph topology and the level of information that each agent has about the inference problem they are trying to solve. Using these conclusions, the paper proposes an algorithm to rank the overall influence between agents to discover highly influential agents. It also provides a method to learn the necessary model parameters from raw observational data. The results and the proposed algorithm are illustrated by considering both synthetic data and real Twitter data.

Ping Hu, Virginia Bordignon, Mert Kayaalp et al.

This paper studies the probability of error associated with the social machine learning framework, which involves an independent training phase followed by a cooperative decision-making phase over a graph. This framework addresses the problem of classifying a stream of unlabeled data in a distributed manner. In this work, we examine the classification task with limited observations during the decision-making phase, which requires a non-asymptotic performance analysis. We establish a condition for consistent training and derive an upper bound on the probability of error for classification. The results clarify the dependence on the statistical properties of the data and the combination policy used over the graph. They also establish the exponential decay of the probability of error with respect to the number of unlabeled samples.

Mert Kayaalp, Yunus Inan, Visa Koivunen et al.

In this paper, we consider a setting where heterogeneous agents with connectivity are performing inference using unlabeled streaming data. Observed data are only partially informative about the target variable of interest. In order to overcome the uncertainty, agents cooperate with each other by exchanging their local inferences with and through a fusion center. To evaluate how each agent influences the overall decision, we adopt a causal framework in order to distinguish the actual influence of agents from mere correlations within the decision-making process. Various scenarios reflecting different agent participation patterns and fusion center policies are investigated. We derive expressions to quantify the causal impact of each agent on the joint decision, which could be beneficial for anticipating and addressing atypical scenarios, such as adversarial attacks or system malfunctions. We validate our theoretical results with numerical simulations and a real-world application of multi-camera crowd counting.

Mert Kayaalp, Caner Turkmen, Oleksandr Shchur et al.

Is bigger always better for time series foundation models? With the question in mind, we explore an alternative to training a single, large monolithic model: building a portfolio of smaller, pretrained forecasting models. By applying ensembling or model selection over these portfolios, we achieve competitive performance on large-scale benchmarks using much fewer parameters. We explore strategies for designing such portfolios and find that collections of specialist models consistently outperform portfolios of independently trained generalists. Remarkably, we demonstrate that post-training a base model is a compute-effective approach for creating sufficiently diverse specialists, and provide evidences that ensembling and model selection are more compute-efficient than test-time fine-tuning.

Mert Kayaalp, Stefan Vlaski, Ali H. Sayed

The objective of meta-learning is to exploit the knowledge obtained from observed tasks to improve adaptation to unseen tasks. As such, meta-learners are able to generalize better when they are trained with a larger number of observed tasks and with a larger amount of data per task. Given the amount of resources that are needed, it is generally difficult to expect the tasks, their respective data, and the necessary computational capacity to be available at a single central location. It is more natural to encounter situations where these resources are spread across several agents connected by some graph topology. The formalism of meta-learning is actually well-suited to this decentralized setting, where the learner would be able to benefit from information and computational power spread across the agents. Motivated by this observation, in this work, we propose a cooperative fully-decentralized multi-agent meta-learning algorithm, referred to as Diffusion-based MAML or Dif-MAML. Decentralized optimization algorithms are superior to centralized implementations in terms of scalability, avoidance of communication bottlenecks, and privacy guarantees. The work provides a detailed theoretical analysis to show that the proposed strategy allows a collection of agents to attain agreement at a linear rate and to converge to a stationary point of the aggregate MAML objective even in non-convex environments. Simulation results illustrate the theoretical findings and the superior performance relative to the traditional non-cooperative setting.